1/3 3b oop vs aggro player

You're pretty much WA/WB on a dry board, so I'm fine checking back the turn.

I'm fine with preflop.

I also check the flop against this spewy aggrotard.

Think I check again on the turn against this player type. Likely gritting my teeth with a check/call here and prolly again on a non-stoopid river.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I could see taking three different lines here:

1. Just c-bet the K-high flop, because it favors our range as the pre-flop 3B'er. If V calls the flop, check-evaluate from there.

2. Check flop, and when V checks back, bet the turn for value, probably 1/2 pot.

3. Check flop and turn, with plans to check-call turn and river.

Which line I'd take depends on how aggro V is, and whether or not I think V is protecting their check-back range on the flop. If V is aggro, I'm expecting V to bet the flop with any Kx or TT, so I'm not too worried we're beat on the turn.

Against an aggro V who will often bet if we check, but also likes to float wide and call if we bet, I'd prefer to check flop. With QQ, we block her most likely bluff combos of QJ that might start betting the turn, but I could see checking again on the turn if she just can't help herself, and will start bluffing if we check twice.

If we think she's capable of raising turn and barreling river with air, I'd just bet and hope she raises. But mostly I think I'd just check to let her start blasting with ATC.

The thing about aggro opponents is they like being the aggressor, and they hate paying off milky value bets. She opened pre, and called a 3B, so in her mind, she probably thinks she can credibly rep TT+/AK, not really thinking about how much of her range is PP's lower than TT, random AX, a bunch of SC's that whiffed, and slivers of QJ. She probably also doesn't think we'd check twice with JJ/QQ.

So I'd just let her bet, and pretend to tank-call. If she checked back the flop with Kx or TT, she's just getting paid. I'm not folding when so much of her range is going to be air or showdown value turned into a bluff.

Against her specifically, she'd probably raise my cbet on flop with ATC. She loves raising flops even in position with air and sdv, not sure if I've seen her raising with monsters on flops. lol
If she didn't raise, then floating is also another possibility, as for folding, she doesn't love folding. It literally hurts for her to fold.

Against turn bets, I haven't seen much raises from her. But small river bets will definitely induce river bluff raises though.

Anyways, actual hand
Turn T Hero bets 50, V calls

Pot 248
River 5, Hero???? V only has 200 or less behind?

So...my usual default setting is to range-check flops when I'm OOP as the PFR. If I'm going to deviate, I need a good reason, and I definitely do not see one here. If V was loose-passive, and we flopped TP or better, sure, I'd probably c-bet, but here, I don't like it.

Mostly I don't like it specifically because she likes to raise c-bets with ATC. I don't blame her, because I'm also LAG, and have a similar tendency. My reasoning is that most low-stakes players tend to c-bet WAY too frequently as the PFR, and raising them as a bluff tends to print.

Here, you're OOP, with 2nd pair, on an otherwise dry flop, and you know V likes to raise c-bets. We hate getting raised here, so don't c-bet, just check, and put the pressure on her to decide if she wants to start a three street bluff here on the flop, or take a free card, not really sure if her hand will even be good, even if it improves in some way, since you could be sand-bagging, trying to induce her to bet, because that's what so many of her opponents will do, once they notice how aggro she is.

So just check flop, confident that if she has a hand, any piece of the board, she'll bet. Like I said, I'm mostly range-checking anyway, but here, it makes even more sense, against an aggro V who will over-stab with value, and raise with ATC if we c-bet, but may not want to start a three-street bluff if we check.

Once she checks back, we have the green light to start value betting, especially if she is less prone to raising turns. But I'd like betting even more if she WAS prone to raising any bet at any time. If we're confident that she would bet flop with KX or TT (TT probably 4B's pre at some frequency, and bets flop when we check to her at some frequency, so I'm not giving her much TT), and think she might raise if we check flop and bet turn, I'm definitely betting, probably small, praying she raises.

I'm not sure what betting $50 into $148 does here, against this particular V. If V was loose-passive or sticky, or liked to chase draws, I'd pot it. If V likes to raise, I'd bet small. If she's just going to call, not raise, I want to start building a pot.

As played, what do you think her range is here? Surely she's not folding KX, right? Does she find her way here with some combo that rivers a straight? Did she really just flat call the turn with a set or 2P?

I don't see the point in betting into an aggro V who's just going to fold worse and call with better, but will often read our line as weak when we check flop, bet 1/3 pot on turn, and check again on river. If we check, she'll bet KX for value, but she'll also bet a ton of worse hands as a bluff, assuming our read that she's spewy-aggro is correct.

She's going to have a ton of Tx, QJ, Ax, and PP's between 66 and 99, and she's going to have a really hard time figuring out if she can bet thin for value with Tx or which combos she should bluff to avoid over-bluffing. It wouldn't surprise me if she's range-jamming here when we take this line, because it looks like we just whiffed or we're afraid of Kx.

Like, put yourself in her spot, with JT or 99/88. What would you be thinking? I'd be thinking, "is Tx or 99 going to win if I check back, or is he doing this with JJ/QQ and I just lose? Will he fold QQ/JJ if I breathe on this pot, or do I have to jam to make him range-fold? Is he ever sand-bagging KK or AK? Nah, really unlikely. He never has TPTK or better when he plays it this way. I think I can make him fold if I bet, but what size? Probably has to be a jam. Please God, let this work..."

What??? People will bet/jam with sdv just to get better to fold??? I thought most people like to check down with sdv especially in position.

There's no st8s, her range is marginal hands only probably something like tx, 66-99, AJ, AQ, type hands. And some super rare slowplayed hands like sets, KK/AA/AK.
I was targetting her weak range for value.

Is your read that she's aggro? If so, then you should check to let her bet. I don't see what betting here accomplishes, but you do you bro.

Most TAGs and tighter players will check down thinking they have sdv. But does Tx really have sdv in this spot for V? Tx is about as likely to win as QJ. So a good LAG will recognize that hero is capped but has several moderate to weak made hands. Sitting there with a hand that has super weak SDV like T9, but could bluff AT, QT, JT most of the time and sometimes QQ/JJ and some nits might even be pushed off a weak K like K9 - it's a tempting place to shove for those inclined to be more aggressive.

Personally, I'd want more behind, like 1.2x pot, to try that move unless my read is hero is a nit.

Really poor bet from V. Did she think she was value betting? It's a good spot to bluff, but half pot just isn't enough to bluff anything. If you were to shove, she's in a nasty spot and probably committed, but I think sometimes you run into something like K9 or A4 and value own yourself. If she were bluffing without a pair she would fold. I would attempt to determine if she is equally meek with value bets and fails to shove for value, or if it is a situation where she finds bluffing spots but isn't willing to commit, but does commit with value. If that's the case, you can read the 1/2 pot river bet as bluffy in the future and respond accordingly. I see this quite a bit among the less experienced agros, they can identify a good pattern to bluff, but they aren't willing to commit. It's scary to jam light, so they bluff too small, failing to realize that bluffing too small will lose way more in the long run than bluffing too large.

So before trying to shove light for value, I'd try to observe a few hands where she has value and it would make sense for her to shove. If she is finding those shoves, then its open season on here small bets. If she is just betting half pot with value and bluffs, we are probably better off defaulting to calling to pick off bluffs.

Like I said, if I were in her shoes I'd want to have at least 1.2x pot, because I believe you would seriously consider folding QQ to that bet. Are you calling $300 here? Most wouldn't. I think her pattern was good, but the sizing was too small. If she is routinely trying bluffs that are too small, you can definitely exploit by check-raising for value and when deeper as a bluff yourself more frequently when faced with smaller sizes from her.

If we asked her if she was betting thin for value, and what sort of hands she was targeting to call, or bluffing, and what sort of hands she was targeting to fold, she might not be able to tell us. If I had to give her credit for a solid thought process, I'd say she was betting super thin for value, hoping to get called by 99 or worse.

This play shows she's capable of betting super thin for value or turning SDV into a bluff, but she's hesitant to depolarize with thin value by betting larger, or fully commit to a bluff by betting larger. She's going to be in spots like this a lot, when she's opening too many hands, calling too many 3B's, floating or raising too wide, and not protecting her check back range.

This x-b-x line is going to make it hard for her to avoid over-bluffing or betting too thin on the river, because it looks weak. The only thing I'd do differently here is bet bigger on the turn, so that her river bet will be bigger.

The only reason to bet turn small is if she's likely to raise. Otherwise, if she's just flat calling, and we're reasonably sure we have the best hand, we want to bet big.

I definitely wouldn't ship river. You're misunderstanding LAG tendencies. LAGs over-fold to aggression, and prefer to be the aggressor whenever they sense weakness. The river is such a straightforward bluff catching spot. If you ship, you're just letting her off the hook when she gets to the river with so much weak garbage and air. If you bet big on the river, she just folds. If you check, she'll almost always bet.

A better line on the river would be to check raise. She's not taking this sizing with a strong hand. Her strong hands would bet bigger. When she bets $75 into $250, I might make it $200, just to squeeze a little more value out of her when she's betting thin for value and might level herself into thinking her small bet induced us to check raise. She'll have a hard time folding Tx for another $125 when the pot is $525.