AKo OOP vs wacko kid

I think you can 4bet a bit bigger OOP, like maybe $165, or even just jam.

When you 4bet this small, I would assume that V is calling with basically his entire range IP. A small cbet on this board is basically a value bet because he likely has a bunch of worse A-highs and trashy draws that will continue.

Once you check, your hand is kinda face-up as A-high and I would just try to realize my equity as cheaply as possible (i.e. I would check and perhaps call a small bet.)

I don't like the 4bet to 140 as I think you make him fold some trash hands from which you'll get a ton of value. I feel that 4bet will put you in a lot of difficult spots (against this player)). I'd much rather call and try to hit an A or a K and print money and if we miss fire something OTF without being commited to the flop and make him fold like half of his range; if you really want to 4bet then commit(something like 240~) and go all-in OTF.

I think the check on the flop is okay but the hand would be so much easier to play if you'd either called his 3-bet or reraised higher to go all in OTF. AP I don't like the idea of raising on the flop or turn as I think you're gonna get a lot of calls from his range: composed of KT, KJ, KQ, AT/AQ/AK,77+, many FD's and SD's. Really difficult to make him fold OTF and turn, not worth putting in the money, I prefer to just check again and try to get to showdown and beat trash like KQo or missed draws. You said he's played his draws passively so we might get there.

Check turn, raise any river if you hit an A or a K and check/fold anything else. I don't dislike a hero call in case river shows something like a black 3, 2, 5 etc.

I think I'm either 4-bet shoving or folding to the 3-bet. Calling OOP with a flop SPR =1 isn't a situation I want with AKo.

I would limp in assuming I'm going to be able to get in a 3bet like 100% of the time. But if our opens are getting 3bet just as often then opening to 4bet is fine too.

Assuming this guy is button clicking a lot with 3bets preflop / calling 4bets with lol hands, I'd 4bet to a size which allows me a PSB shove on the flop (applying pressure to smaller pears and meanwhile gives me ~ok 2:1 odds to hit my 3:1 overs if I whiff the flop). So I'd make it $165ish.

Not loving that we've left ourselves this much over a PSB postflop, but I continue with my plan and shove the flop. We should almost never be putting in ~1/3rd of our stack preflop to just meakly check/fold the flop / not realize our equity.

I don't get to the turn this way, but at this point our hand kinda looks like what it is, which ain't great since it is that.

GcluelessNLnoobG

^ to be clear, he's not THAT out of line preflop. He loves action but he's not going bananas with 89o or something or trying 'to balance' with 56s .. he's got a premium hand and when he snap calls the 4-bet that hand is NEVER QQ+.

I would assign his range to the flop as [99-JJ AKo/s AQo/s AJo/s ATs KQs]

I'm too lazy to maths, but against that range we're ahead a shitload (and a shove for a ~PSB simply protects our equity in a massive pot) plus we put a few hands in the blender.

GcommitatthisSPR,imoG

H is a 44/56 dog to that exact range on flop. About the same on turn.

At first, I thought, ldo 4! to 170 and probably call. But at 170, V's calling pretty much everything they were with 140, right? Going to 200 is gross with 500 stacks and shoving 485 more into a ~100 pot seems a bit excessive too.

Or H calls, and perhaps V1 calls too. Pot will be 200-ish, if so, with 435 back. H can start the flop with a x and see what happens.

AP, I guess act like you were going for a flop x-r (though I agree with others that cbet 1/4 - 1/3 would be better) and donk shove this double FD turn with your obvious OP.

But we're are ahead of about 30 hands, tied with AK apart from the akh and behind 12pp and 3 sets. How are we a dog to this?!

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk

Stick it into PPT or the like and see. I was a bit surprised too. To refresh: H has AKo in black, V has JJ-99, AK-AJ, ATs, KQs. Board is J864 two-tone in red.
Pf: H is near 60-40 favorite.
F: Jd8h4d, H goes to 43.9/56.1
T: 6h, H is 43.3 / 56.7.

Lots of decent equity draws or they already have a pair, is my guess.

--- PokerStove analysis ---

board: Jd8h4d6h

distribution equity win shares tie shares
AcKs 42.665% 672.00 154.00
99,TT,JJ,AK,... 57.335% 956.00 154.00

computation info:
0.001 seconds
1,936 games
1,650,468 games/sec

distribution info:
AcKs = { AcKs }

99,TT,JJ,AK,AQ,AJ,ATs,KQs = { 9c9d,9c9h,9c9s,9d9h,9d9s,9h9s,TcTd,TcTh,TcTs,TdTh,TdTs,ThTs,JcJd,JcJh,JcJs,JdJh,JdJs,JhJs,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,KcAd,AdKh,AdKs,KcAh,KdAh,AhKs,KcAs,KdAs,KhAs,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs,QcAd,AdQh,AdQs,QcAh,QdAh,AhQs,QcAs,QdAs,QhAs,AcJd,AcJh,AcJs,JcAd,AdJh,AdJs,JcAh,JdAh,AhJs,JcAs,JdAs,JhAs,TcAc,TdAd,ThAh,TsAs,QcKc,QdKd,QhKh,QsKs }

Which is coming out differently than Holdem Lab though only slightly, and that's really strange. We win about 40% of the time, tie 10% or so, and lose 50%.

Grunch:

PRE - At some point, you will start raising bigger. I'd go at least $20. If it's a splashy game, $25. $15 is too small, and accomplishes nothing other than bloating the pot and making it very likely you'll be playing multi-way and OOP to more opponents than you'd like.

When V 3B's us, just flat call. AKo is just a drawing hand, and it'll be hard to get paid if we make TPTK or better if we 4B pre.

FLOP - standard check.

TURN - check. If V bets, fold if he bets big, or check-raise if he bets small. Do not call.

Result:

You over-bet jammed ace-high into a spewy whale who 3B you pre, and likes to chase his draws passively, and checked back the flop?

If he folded, you had the best hand, by a country mile. If he called, obviously you wouldn't have, or he'd be drawing with decent equity.

For the sake of argument, suppose he did bet the turn after you checked twice. What size do you think he'd bet with thick value, and what size do you think he'd bet with weak value or a bluff? Do you think those bets would be the same size?

Let's say he bets big. Maybe he's bluffing. Maybe he's got value. If he's bluffing when we have value, we can call (or check-jam). If he's bluffing when we have air, we can fold. What are the odds he's bluffing when bets big, if we know he likes to chase his draws passively?

Let's say he bets small. Maybe he's got value, but probably not, since your read is he uses huge sizings with made hands. If he bets small, he's probably bluffing, and we can steal the pot by check-raising. We probably don't even need to check-jam. A small check-raise would probably be all it takes to make him fold his air and trash hands.

If he bets small, and we raise less than all-in, we can jam brick rivers, and watch him fold all his missed draws.

Do you not see how spewy it is to donk-jam turn into this guy, who might have checked back the J-high flop with 99-TT, and doesn't feel like folding it when you jam a turn card that only completes an inside-straight draw for 75, but also adds another flush draw, and doesn't really threaten his hand?

Why would you ever try to bluff this guy, this way? Just check again, and let his action tell us what he has, so we know what to do.