Bellagio 2/5 Hand

At less than 150BB deep, QJs seems like an easy preflop fold to a solid player's UTG raise.

It was Q TEN thankyouverymuch

Sure, there is a case for folding there; a loose-ish call on my part.

I play this game when I'm in Vegas, but I'm no expert on how it runs on a regular basis. Generally, I'm folding here against an UTG reg open with QTs 100 bb deep.

AP: prefer to check flop behind. You're getting xr here quite often on this board and I see no reason just not to draw for free on rainbow flop where all our straight outs are good.

AP turn: I prefer an overbet here. V is A-heavy based on preflop action and will likely call with top two and will raise his sets. We are getting no more value from QQ/TT and we block them anyway. We are also vulnerable to a river chop if another broadway falls and vulnerable to the board pairing too.

AP river: I think this is the nut-worst river for H and I'm checking behind. We block AQ/AT that are our main targets for value.

Flop is an interesting street.

As for the river, overall board favours UTG so I don't think any boats will fold. I don't see hands like QQ calling here. Betting would target AQ and AT and not a lot else; you have reasonable SDV on a nasty river card and can just be thankful you didn't face a big donk, I'd check this back

I'm always betting the river here. V can have Kx, AQ, AT, maybe some A4s/A5s type of hands floating with BDFD then spiking a pair. Note that every suited broadway flopped at least a pair + SD. We never really bet large enough to condense his range so if V is decent, he should have a reasonably wide range. Sure, sometimes we're going to run into a boat with AK/AJ, KK, JJ, but I think we can discount a lot of those hands as they will x/r for value a chunk of the time on flop or turn.

A good player who thinks you are reasonably good will call a pretty chunky bet as light as KQ and if he has AQ, is he folding to a jam? Against me, he's calling the nearly 4x jam with any Ax. Against you, if your image is "tight", he might make a hero fold.

I like two sizes, either $300. Go for 2x pot targeting his Ax but sometimes getting hero called by Kx if V gives you credit for being capable of barreling light.

Another idea is to go small and try to induce a x/r. Stab for like $100 and the Ax in his hand is almost certainly raising, but the Kx would probably flat. Maybe we get a crying call from QJ.

Which path is superior probably relies heavily on whether or not V is likely to call down $300 with Kx. If he is, we should just go with the chunkier size. If he wouldn't, then I like the small size better. The other virtue of the small size is that we might limit our losses when we run into a boat. We bet $100 and he raises to $300, we only lose $300. If we bet $100 and he just rips it, maybe we can fold. We bet $300 and he ships in, are we folding? Maybe, but not easily and we just lost $300.

Teleported to the flop, I think we bet bigger or check.

Turn as played def. bet bigger, it's a bad card for a lot of hands that bet flop.

River I'm not sure, we have AJs/88 maybe A8s and maybe some AK/JJ but still feels bad to check, but V can realistically play a bunch of FHes this way and mostly needs to hero call hands we block for us to win (AQ/AT/QQ/KQ and maybe some weird played A9s/A5s hands with BDFD?). Also sucks if he turns any of them into a bluff.
Also seems difficult for us to have any bluffs, unless we just keep firing with T9s or even more insane KTs.
Maybe mix check and bet 100? But maybe we are supposed to feel bad and check.

3b or fold pre

River bet fold 100$

As for the rest of the hand:

Pre: 3! or fold. We are letting UTG go into the pot uncapped, and that can become a risk especially with this specific runout. Can we say with certainty OTR that UTG doesn't have AA or KK? No. Flopping a nutted hand, some players will play passively OOP and let us hang ourselves. If we 3! a very high percentage of decent players are going to 4! AA, KK or AK a good chunk of the time. If we 3! and he calls, we can further discount the monsters and proceed with more confidence later in the hand. If we 3! and he 4!s, we can easily fold. Having a 3!/f range is going to be very healthy for the stronger portion of our range.

Flop: Good start for us, and also a flop that UTG should have a piece of almost all the time. All the suited broadway flopped a pair, two pair and/or FD. This flop is really only bad for pps TT and below. We don't have KK, but we do have JJ and probably 88, so both players can have nutted hands. So on this board, I'd go with a big bet or check strategy. QT exactly can go either direction. I'd lean toward betting with a BDFD and checking without it. I think you should bet $30-$40.

Turn: We hit the nuts, and V should connect really well with this runout with a bunch of hands that aren't going to find an easy fold. Pot should be our absolute minimum sizing, I would lean towards an overbet $75-$100.

River: Ugly card, but we didn't get enough in the pot. If we had been more aggressive on prior streets, the pot would be large enough to check back. Imagine if you had 3! to $45, (flop: $90), bet $40 OTF (to turn: $170), overbet the turn for $200, (river: $570), and now he checks. We can check back and win or lose a pot appropriate to our hand.

Instead, we went through the effort to flop a big hand and turn the nuts with a weak preflop hand, and we might only win $80. That doesn't make our original risk worthwhile. We end up in a position where we really should get more value from our hand, but if V is slowplaying us the x/r is going to be very uncomfortable.

Really appreciate this analysis, you've given me a few things to think about. Fourth street could have definitely had a larger bet, a total mistake on my part.

But isn't that one of the worst possible rivers? Why are you not checking back here?

A check definitely does not feel good here. But the river is just awful, isn't it?

Thanks for that. I do think there are many reasonable arguments for a check back

Sounds pretty reasonable to me. I'm having a hard time thinking of a worse river card.

PRE - I prefer to play 3B or fold from any position that isn't the BTN or the BB. Think we could 3B here, but flatting isn't terrible.

FLOP - betting seems fine, as does checking back. It would suck to get check raised, and have to fold to a turn over-bet on a brick.

TURN - betting seems fine. I think we can pot it or over-bet, but 50 into 67 seems okay.

RIVER - do we know anything about V's flop c-bet tendencies when he's OOP? Is he checking range from OOP, with hands like AA, KK, AK, or AJ? Is he ever getting here with just Kx? Does he ever block bet in spots like this with trips or better?

If V isn't overly capable of finding creative check-raise bluffs, I think we could bet around 1/2 to 2/3 pot to target AX combos that aren't boated up, and fold to a raise.

We could also just check back, which seems a bit nitty or MUBSy, but when we just flat pre-flop, it's hard for us to be nutted here, unless we have 88, or occasionally maybe A8, but A8 seems unlikely when we start a bet on the flop.

I dunno. It seems crazy to not bet for value, but it's hard to find hands that will pay us off here, and we could be getting trapped. Think I just check back, and hate myself if he shows some hand that might have called a 1/2 pot bet.

I feel like you’ve already decided that check back is best because V showed up with AK, AJ and you decided to make this thread.

I think if you went overbet turn and V snapped, we can find a check back on river. But as played V has all the AQ, AT, maybe even Kx pays you off since there’s 2 aces on board. Maybe look up your preflop game before, this hand is a clear 3b/fold in a 100bb rake game vs reg.

It was a rhetorical question designed to illicit conversation, don't take it personally 🙄

On the river, I'd just bet 40 to 50% pot targeting AT/AQ/KQ/KT and fold to a raise. I also don't expect him to raise often given your profile of villain. Any solid player would already have shown aggression on the flop or turn with their strong hands (outside of like AJ or A8s). And you described yourself as a tight player, so villain shouldn't be slowplaying to trap you.

I think villain just shows up here a lot with AT or AQ given how he played.

Thanks for that. All very reasonable statements. But I do have blockers to his AQ AT, right? Or do you not put much weight on those? I know some people factor blockers more than others.

Flop: I would go bigger or check vs. a good reg. I like 15 if they’re fishy though (reps strength, taking initiative, maybe taking it away on the turn for cheap).

Turn: Perfect card for a big bet (hits villain’s range very well). I’d rather go 150% pot than 75%.

River: b/f $110. Targeting AQ, AT, KQ, KT. So far, they haven’t played it like they have AK, AA, or KK, so I’d definitely bet here.

In general, I would 3-bet or fold this pre, most likely leaning toward fold given the positions.

Geez, is playing QTs IP really that bad???? Ouch!

I personally don't put much weight on blockers at 2/5. There's still 12 combos of AT and AQ total. And 18 combos of KT and KQ he may hero call with.

It’s a fun hand to play aggressively, and calling here is likely costing you around $5 on average. If you don’t mind that and it’s a hand you enjoy playing, go for it.

If I were to flat QTs here, I’d want to set myself up to be able to win a stack by bloating the pot OTT. That means I’d want to bet very big on the turn, and definitely not check back the river as played.

Yes, my turn play is flawed for sure. Should have been much bigger.

OK, good to know. I'm not sure if I've ever really come to a personal conclusion on blockers. I tend to lean towards "blockers don't matter" but always open to hearing people's perspective on it.