Tough decision w/ KQ vs Two

If you are pretty sure you have the best hand, raise now. I don't want them to see a cheap river, and I sure as heck don't want two of them seeing it for cheap. Plus, HJ will stack off light, so let him.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - check from OOP and multi-way seems standard. HJ bet size seems absurdly large. Not quite ready to fold, but my spider sense is tingling. I think I smell 2P+, or some sort of monster draw.

TURN - hmmmm..less than half pot bet doesn't seem to align with rec-fish trying to protect 2P+ on a wet board. So now I'm thinking draw or worse value. But maybe he's just milking us. Hard to say if we don't know much about V.

Not sure what line is best. It would suck to raise, and get 3B. Also sucks to let two opponents draw for cheap.

Only starting $1k effective, what size raise can we make that doesn't commit us to calling off the rest? Jamming $900 seems insane, but so does raising to $400 and folding to a jam, especially if we know HJ doesn't mind stacking off light. Not sure what min-clicking it accomplishes.

I dunno. I think I might just play this like a bluff catcher. Call turn, see what happens. Play some fifth street chicken. Preserve our stack for future opportunities with more clarity.

Going back to the flop, I think maybe we could justify folding when V pots it multi-way, or if not, once LJ over-calls, consider ourselves done with it unless we significantly improve on the turn. I'm going to hate myself if I lose half my stack in this hand, when V rolls over AK or K9. If it's K3 I'm just going home, and I might quit poker.

If it's K3, this is a great table and I'm rebuying!

i would raise and think your assessment of his range with this line is accurate

I figured my raise would look scary as hell and basically pot-committed me anyway. So I just ripped it for $900 and got snapped by A2 of diamonds.
I was really glad my read turned out to be right, but I’m still not fully sure about the hand, the spot was kinda weird because of his tiny turn bet.

I was thinking the same until I saw his turn size.

Back in the days before solvers everyone knew you bet-fold top pair against fish. Who cares what you should theoretically do against good players who don't exist in your game?

Ding Ding Ding.

C-Bet flop here.

The vast majority of "everyone" were losing players.

i think flop and turn bet into 2 especially when K is a diamond makes it extraodinarily unlikely for you to be beaten. i would not x jam the turn though lol

You induced him to make a big bet on the flop. I would have made a nice cbet to collect from the chasers. As played, you have to call it down.

any reason you didnt want to ch/raise flop here?

not loaded question at all. Not having a diamond or BD fd might prefer more often check calling but because its 3 handed, I am sometimes inclined to want to fold out some equity.

Do you get jammed on sometimes? maybe but there's fewer Pair + FD hands (Ad9d) that have considerably more equity vs you since its Kdiamond.

Granted other considerations are worth weighting as more important eg. if you think doing so would get the fish to fold but given description dude sounds more like he lives in the missour (the "show me" state) and Im inclined he loves a showdown and thinks its a 7 card game.

the fishy loose players I see who bet way too big on flops and then downbet on turns from a population tendency/aggregate assessment tend to have weaker ranges when they take this line. But I would weight this conclusion with >50% reliability but still less than 75% so not a locked up "its always this way" type take away.

I dont like leading on this board given villain description but would lead vs other opponents perhaps - hence my initial "why not c/r some%.

Also if C/R'ing in picking 3.5-4x sizing and checking A LOT of turns unfortunately but we also can take this line with hands like AQdd/A9dd and hh and 99 vs the looser splashy villains so checking bad turns for our range isnt as exploitable as it sounds. Vs optimally bad loose wild opponents we do plan to ch/call both with higher frequency in addition to facing more/larger bet sizes

As played vs this sizing on the turn its call and then the decision tree on river becomes:
when river is {card good for us} we will -> 1) lead or 2) check to villain again if we think they will bluff with more hands / higher frequency
when river is {card bad for us} we will -> 1) check with intent to call up to say 1/2 pot given villain description or 2) block bet but for the block bet to be right we need to come up with a range where we win some % when called eg. block bet has a bit of a thin value aspect to it

regarding the Tree 1 Option 1 of leading - sizing determined by considerations of what villain is likely to call / likelihood of getting raised off our hand etc. Personally I think ch/calling vs this villain yields the best aggregate profit across varied situations but i'm definitely down to be persuaded by an alternative arguement.

Wow. Max value.

I suppose you could raise to $300 (2.5x) on the turn. The pot would be $715, and he'd have to call off another $240. Getting almost 3:1, it's hard to think of a hand he plays this way that would fold, unless he was betting with total air. Pretty gross if he jams for the rest of it. We'd be getting almost 2.5:1. Hard to find a fold in that spot.

Of course if he just flats, that leaves us $605 going to the river, with the pot being $895. I guess we could shove on a brick, hoping to get called by worse Kx. But I wonder if we don't make more by checking, and letting V try to bluff us off our hand. Obviously he's not calling the river with ace-high. Sucks if he checks back worse KX, but why would he, if he thinks his KX is good on the turn?

Also wonder what we do on a draw-completing river. I'd be sick check-folding because the river is a diamond, or an ace. That scenario is kinda why I don't love raising turn.

The tiny turn bet is weird, but only because he's fishy, and probably didn't think through what he was doing when he made his ridiculously large flop bet. If he bet 1/3-1/2 pot on the flop, he could have sized up some on the turn, and put real pressure on us.

I dunno. I don't love any of our options on the turn, and when that happens I tend to lean towards pot-controlling.

I would 100% re-raise here because if you get to the river and its a diamond or an ace you could be in a really bad spot if he is drawing. I would say a bet of 325$ should take down the pot because honestly you don't want him to get there if he is drawing. If he calls you may be up against a random two pair or AK.

I am not sure I would have jammed, but MAX value! Nice hand.

I didnt really consider ripping turn and it worked out excellently for you but I just dont know if i'm inclined to rip 200+BBs with just top pair, feels a little spewy given the fact that villain has the wider range and maybe equity advantage and nut advantage yah?

Nice hand. I think I prefer a flop bet. Shouldn't be any top sets and apart from some J9s there shouldn't be any two pair, so you are pretty safe.

The turn barrel after getting two calls is pretty strong, probably reduces the chances of KJ etc, and your own check-raise on turn looks equally strong, but (I've seen results) you might as well reduce the chances of it going check-check on the river. I would have bet the flop so not sure how I'd play in your line, but it looks OK

As played I think calling turn and letting villain barrel off bluffs on many rivers is best.

LJ overcall on flop is also a bit concerning, so xr into him seems kind of bad.