1-2-3 Live Flop Set, Turn Sizing vs One Caller

If you were going to bet smaller, it should have been on the extremely dry and static flop.

OTOH, if no one has an Ax, you're probably not going to make much money here regardless.

On the turn going 40% isn't "sizing up". It's a relatively small size compared to standard sizings which are often 1/2-overbets depending on the boards of course. But just keep this in mind.

The biggest factor in this hand is that you have a super nutted hand which wants to get all the money in if possible.

So how do we do this?

On the turn we now target his Ax or better and try to stack that range by the river.

So think about what type of turn sizing you want to use that will still get calls from his good hands (probably some Ax and better) and will create a stack to pot ratio (SPR...size of effective stack/size of pot) which is as low as possible.
Because then it will be harder for him to fold as often given he gets better odds on the call.

So this is our job in this hand..To take all his chips given how strong our hand is..

When you bet only $60 the pot will be $274 on the river and he will have $320..So we need to overbet to get stacks in.
Not ideal.

If you instead bet something like $140 say. Then the pot will be $434 and his stack will $240.. So you will likely get many more river calls when you jam then.

So play around with these types of numbers. Maybe you think he won't call a bet that big on the turn often enough, but will call say around $100 always with Ax..then we we use that size..

Main point is to try to build big pots with nutted hands to create small river SPRs..

That's a good point. I've just been thinking of betting smaller to keep a wider range to the river and not paying as much attention to SPR on the river to make it more likely we get all the money in. I'll try and balance these two concepts going forward

Sometimes they just don’t have a hand to call. I see nothing wrong here.

I start by checking here. We're OOP multiway, flop is dry as fuck. Let someone think you have like KK or QQ, and check call.

Delayed c-bet if checked through on flop, otherwise let Ax hang themselves.

@hitchens97

Hero is on the CO so we're in position to the Villain who is in MP

Also, what're you thinking in terms of how to get the most value if we do end up doing a delayed c-bet on the turn. Are we raising them or just calling and possibly raising on the river to get max value? I just thought betting ~1/3 all the way to keep in their weaker range might get us a decent amount of value and they can raise their stronger hands that might hit 2P with Ax or something else that we can 3B/shove on top of

PRE - seems fine, but if our $20 open is getting three callers, we could go bigger.

FLOP - on ace high boards as the pre flop raiser, I'm checking or over-betting. With middle set, I'd be over-betting. This 40% pot c-bet is too small.

We're probably only getting action from Ax, and maybe some stubborn PP's above our 77 hoping to turn a set, or hoping that we'll slow down and check back turn. We want to get max value as soon as possible.

TURN - opponents are going to put us on AK a lot. Any bet here is going to fold out a ton of AX, and all his PP's between 77 and KK. A small bet like you made is fine, but you could also check back, to give V a chance to make aces up, or bluff river.

He probably had air, and was folding to any bet, and may not have bluffed river. But we probably should have given him the opportunity.

@docvail

I'll make a note to increase my bet size so I get at most 2 callers. I wrote that feedback down from your last post but seems I haven't adjusted my sizing yet. Thanks for pointing it out again.

For the flop, how do I balance betting smaller to keep his weaker range in as well? I remember you mentioned in the long post betting 1/3 pot so we don't project our hand strength and instead 3B if he shows aggression with the top of our range, fold out bottom of our range, and call with equity. My plan was to bet 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 and not project my hand strength until the river where if he bluffs/raises I 3B. Maybe I misinterpreted your advice...

Also, I'm not sure when I should be overbetting. Do you have any general advice for that so I can start to add that line into my game?

The small flop c-bet is for boards we're range-betting (most boards, when we're heada up and in position). We don't range bet ace-high boards. Instead we check or over-bet.

We'll over-bet with thick value +, and monster draws (for balance). Otherwise we just check flop.

There are other times to over-bet, but it's a longer topic than suitable for a single forum post.

I would think for A-high boards we would bet 1/3 to keep worse aces in but maybe I'm not thinking of it the right way. I'm making another post for bet sizing based on board texture and would love your input on that

The small flop c-bet is used when we're just betting range. The intent is to induce V to call with their weak hands, and raise with their strong hands.

Ace-high boards are different in that they tend to be more static, such that V's are going to feel less inclined to raise their strong hands, and will be more likely to trap. For this reason, we want to over-bet (with hands that can continue to a raise or keep betting when they call), or check (with hands that aren't strong in relative terms, nor good draws, nor do they block our opponents thick value).

We wouldn't be betting range on ace-high boards, because our opponents are going to call pre with a lot of AX combos, and our lower pairs don't benefit as much from betting for protection.

V isn't calling a pre-flop raise with AX just to flop top pair and fold to a big c-bet. Assuming we had a strong AX here, worse AX aren't going to fold to a single bet, so we want to get max value on the flop. With 77 on A73, we'd love for V to x/r with A3 or 33, or AK that was slow-played pre. No one is folding A8-AQ to a single bet, but they may fold when we barrel.

The main point is that hands like 22, 44-66, and 88 are going to over-fold. A lot of V's pre-flop calling range just whiffs on this flop, and is going to over-fold. Most of the hands that connect in some way aren't going to raise when we c-bet small, but will also be fairly inelastic, meaning that they're continuing whether we bet small or bet big.

that makes sense about the Villain being less likely to raise their strong hands on this board, opting to trap, and also willing to call a bit bet on the flop with weak Ax hands but folding to a barrel on the turn.

If I did take the 1/3 pot line on the flop I'd be losing value from hands that would've called a bigger bet and the hands that were going to fold to 1/3 pot are also folding to overbet as well so this line of overbet is max EV.

Things you say make so much sense 😀