1-2-3 Hero AA facing turn aggression

Eeesh

ok so with the 6 straddle you're effective stacks are around 33bb's and i just dont think Im good enough to fold AA no matter what the runout is or how TAGy the villain may be. I also wanna question just how competent they actually are given the fact they have not topped up to 100BB (300.00currency) - suggests to me a possibility you give them too much credit.

Also I think GII on turn is really the best option in position. It'd be different if you were OOP we could start constructing a strategy that let's them value cut themselves but you want to just put AA into the range that wants to put all the money in the middle and see if the other dude is gonna be kind enough to want to play that same game of "lets stop thinking, we're not masters of our own fate; the cards are"

Flop sizing is bad on fairly wet board.

Turn, I guess you have to gii with nut flush draw, since he doesn't always have a flush.

@docvail mentioned I should be betting 1/3-1/2 pot to keep Villain's weaker range. The logic made sense because if I start betting larger I'm only keeping top of villain's range. Do you recommend something different?

Yeah, I don't agree at all with 1/3 pot on a J7 2-flush board. You can't let them draw cheaply. If you had a draw, you would be trying to bet more than that to get folds. I know solvers recommend small cbets in some situations, but live players are somewhat size indifferent.

I agree with your small raise on the flop. You want him calling with everything, and if he doesn't have a hand yet, you want him to float hands like KQ, AK. You have no reason to be too scared, you have the Ad. Sure, you might get coolered, but you can bet pot and most double-diamond hands are calling. So if you're going to get coolered, you aren't avoiding it by betting big. Best to keep ranges wide, we can go small and expect to gii by the river with reasonable bet sizes. If you bet $50 or $75 on this flop, I think you fold too many hands.

Turn: V is wide open because we bet small. He could have AK, KQ, KT, K9, K8 all with one diamond or none. He could have Qdx, he could have AQ or QT with no diamond. V has shown a willingness to donk-bluff scary cards and this is obviously a scary card for a lot of your range. It's an over and the flush came in. But would he donk a flush? Probably not. He would probably prefer to x/r knowing that your c-bet on the flop doesn't necessarily mean you were strong. This bet screams either a single diamond or something like two pair - say KJ, that is too strong to ever fold, but doesn't want to give a free draw to the fourth diamond.

We are absolutely never folding any river with only $100 behind in what would be a $325 pot. So I'd just gii right now. Worst case he has the flush and we have 7 outs. Calling with the intent to call a river shove is an option, but if he has the naked Qd, he might not be willing to put more money in on a lot of rivers. We have to be reasonably confident that V is going to double-barrel his air to flat. Given that he'd be firing $100 into $325, I don't see that as a reasonable double barrel. If V has something like AK or KQ with no diamond, he'll call the turn but might fold a river if a fourth diamond comes.

For those reasons, I'm just jamming, expecting to be way ahead a good chunk and needing to hit my diamond occasionally.

@Yamihere - I had the same logic as you so good to see my strategy makes sense

I think the flop is too wet for such a small bet. You are betting into two players, not just Villain. I'd rather check/raise than bet small.

Turn I just shove. We have the Ad, so flushes aren't as likely, and he likes to bet scare cards. Can't let him get away with it all the time, especially w/ this hand and the way you played it.

seems like a trivial gii with the Ad

@Javanewt

Villain is in the HJ and hero is in the CO so not sure how we check-raise here. If we bet big won't we be forcing worse hands to fold? If we just bet small on the flop we give the Villain or any opponent the chance to re-raise us (2P, sets, etc.), indicating the strength of their hand while not showing the strength of ours, and it also lets them bluff into us

Sorry, right about the check/raise. Confusing with the other guy -- and the other guy is the reason I don't like the small bet. You are betting into two players on a very wet board.

If you were heads up, I wouldn't mind it.

OP:
What is your concern regarding villains donk lead?

If they are as TAGy as you think, they dont have a lot of dd hands on the flop and given stack sizes would probably attack the small flop bet and jam with their strongest ones (QdTd, Td9d, 9d8d) wouldnt they? Legit the counter strat to the weak lead is to raise or x/raise with more hands more frequently since the down bet range signifies a wider range. sure you happen to have AA and they'd be wrong here, but they dont know that.

So then what hands do they have besides top set (which wouldnt that raise pre or not?) that effectively shoves the turn. Im saying effectively shoves because leading 100 leaves them not a bunch behind to hold off on a bet that would carry any FE.

Im just confused - could you expand on what your concern is exactly?

@bb_love

My thought process is if he is betting into me when scare cards hit, should I just flat the turn and call off a lot of rivers, letting him bet his whole stack into me vs. re-raising on the turn and potentially scaring off his weaker range

Whatever he called flop and led turn with should have some equity, so don't mind if he folds to your shove getting great pot odds. Get him to fold or gii way behind. If he has a flush, you have outs.

What hands is Villain donk-leading for $100 with here?

How can anyone here range your villain for you? You're the one sitting at the table with him.

V could have 2P/sets, 1P + a draw, or just a draw.

If V has us beat already, I'd think we'd have as many as 16 outs, so roughly the correct direct odds to call. Don't really see the point in turning our hand into a bluff by jamming.

I'd plan on calling the river if it's any diamond, ace, seven, or pairs whatever the other card on the flop is.

Jamming is not turning your hand into a bluff. If you flat call, there will be 1/3 pot left. If you are ahead, you don't want to let him get away without putting the last 100 in. If he has you beat on the river, he will generally shove and you will have to call.

I'm wondering if we call turn with ~32% equity like @docvail is saying and we're getting $100 to win $325 (31% pot odds), not counting implied odds of stacking him off on the river, then it's a pretty break-even/slightly +EV call on the turn and doesn't fold out villain's weaker range.

@deuceblocker - what I don't want to happen is that I raise and villain folds and only continues with top of his range to the river. He may or may not bet river so that's always a risk with his 1P + draw type hands on the turn that might call it off possibly on turn and show weakness on the river....that's the fine balance I'm wondering about

Disagree.

V just donked $100 into $125 on a three-flush, Kigh-high board. Possibly also a three-straight board. Aside from straights and flushes, V could just have 2P or a set. What hands worse than AA call a jam here?

If we jam and V calls, are we hoping for a brick, or a diamond, or another ace or 7? It seems like we'd be hoping for a diamond, followed by an ace, followed by a 7. If we're hoping for a card that will improve our hand, we're bluffing when we jam. And there aren't that many cards that will make us the nuts.

If we flat call, maybe V sticks the rest in on the river, maybe he doesn't. But we'll have the advantage of acting last, and seeing the river, which may improve us. If he checks river, we can stick the rest in if we want.

jd 7d Xs (what is X?)

A card I don't remember because I was involved in a hand after/couldn't recall the details