Can third boat win the regatta?
Hero's image is pretty weak as we've been folding a lot postflop and slowly bleeding out.
V1 is a mid-40s typical loose-passive fish with a gambl-y streak.
V2 is a bald MAWG with mirrored sunglasses and a bit of an attitude. In contrast to this image, he's been playing tight-passive for the most part. The most interesting thing is that I've started to notice his RFI range seems to be extremely tilted toward pocket pairs, maybe 22+, AKo, AJs+. Has shown up limping AQo, AJo.
1/2 NLH, 8-handed
BB V1 (~$200)
EP V2 (~$350)
BN Hero (~$200)
Hero is dealt T♠️T♦️.
V2 opens in EP to $6, which as noted in the player profile has been a pocket pair less than JJ the last four times he opened for this size, so we have some suspicions about his range here. Not sure if he actually opens other hands bigger though, think this might just be a coincidence.
Folds to hero on BN who flats the $6. SB folds, and V1 calls from the BB.
Perhaps was too passive here but didn't feel the need to 3B with position, especially with a read that V2 is calling.
Flop ($17): A♣️3♣️3♦️
V1 leads for $8. V2 calls. Hero calls.
Not loving the spot here, but it seems like we have enough value to continue even into two players. Still think V2 has an underpair too, but concerned that V1 came along with ace-rag, especially with the lead.
Turn ($37): A♣️3♣️3♦️ J♣️
V1 checks, V2 checks, Hero checks.
River($37): A♣️3♣️3♦️ J♣️3♠️
V1 bets $20, V2 calls, Hero...?
5 Replies
1. Preflop you have to 3 bet. As you said you know this guy has a worse hand than you. Why would you not want to put more money in the pot with the better hand.
Also by 3 betting you most likely get it heads up.
2. The flop donk and x on the turn is almost always a weak ace that is afraid of the incoming flush.
3. With the river making a full house to any random Ax, and the call by v2, river is a fold and it’s not even close.
It's not anywhere near 3rd boat.
Fold flop
1. Preflop you have to 3 bet. As you said you know this guy has a worse hand than you. Why would you not want to put more money in the pot with the better hand.
Also by 3 betting you most likely get it heads up.
Yeah, on further thought, I think this is obviously right. ATT, I was on a downswing of missing flops and in some kind of mindset where I was thinking "I have a read on V2, so I can make better decisions once I see a flop for cheap". This is not good logic.
The flop donk and x on the turn is almost always a weak ace that is afraid of the incoming flush.
I don't think it's that clear. At the table my thinking wasn't great - more or less a simple heuristic of "don't fold to tiny bets when you have equity", but looking at it:
Against Ace-rag and an underpair, we have about 8.5% equity basically though hitting another Ten. $8 into a final pot of $37 is 21.6% pot odds. You need to be more than 83% certain that someone has a better made hand (1 - [21.6% - 8.5%] / 78.4%), which seems like an awfully high bar. That's including rake, which my mental math ATT is probably not adequately accounting for (faster math is 8-on-42 = 19%, two outs hit with 8%, need 1 - 11/81 = ~86% certainty).
I absolutely admit that ATT it was more like "eh, 4bb not that much, fish could have anything", but being more than 80% certain about fish taking a line is still pretty darn certain.
That being said...
3. With the river making a full house to any random Ax, and the call by v2, river is a fold and it’s not even close.
The river is only slightly worse odds since we no longer have outs, but I did fold. Definitely the fallacy of "bigger bet, same odds, more folds".
I think you all are probably right on fold both flop and river, but I came here for a sanity check against results-oriented thinking.
Hero folds. V1 proudly announces "I have a full house!". After a stare from V2, he flips over 77 and quips that he sure hopes V2 has 55, because that's what he put him on. V2 shows... 55. (Last time V2 opened 3x, he also had 55.. guess the pattern was even picked up on by the fish.)
