Raise sizing with flopped set
1-2 nl 8 handed
V1 MAWG. covers hero. Plays alot pre. doesn't get out of line. MP
V2 young guy (late 20s) Hispanic. ~350. New to table. saw him play for about an hour. seems lose and sticky. HJ.
H ~350 CO down about $250 and ready to call it a night.
Pre
V1 opens to $12
V2 calls
H with pocket 3s calls
BU calls, blinds call, 6 ways to flop ($64 after rake).
flop($64) J 10 3 with 2 spades
V1 $50
V2 calls
How much should H raise it to? I'm stuck on 3 times plus one for every caller. Some say 4 plus one for every caller. This would make it $250 leaving me with about $90 behind. Should I just ship now? Maybe this will look like I'm the one on a draw and more likely to get calls from pairs?
4 Replies
I think shoving is best.
Gotta balance your draws shoving spots.
Thing is raising 200 and 350 makes no difference. Might even look weaker shoving.
If you had bigger stacks 500+ then it makes some difference
+1 shove at these stack sizes, and @dangomango said may look weaker like a draw
what are your other choices?
- Fold? NFW since you're almost certainly winning RN and a favorite to everything except JJ and TT.
- Call? wait to see if the flush turns and then fold? Yes, if you're true OMC but no way is that right based on stack sizes.
- Min click? That's maximum risk because you are inviting 2 people to out draw you on a wet board with a SD, FD, and possibly a higher set draw. But it might also be max reward. Not worth the risk to me, but that's a gut feel that I don't know how to put math to in the heat of battle.
- Raise any other amount than a min click or AI? That leaves you with a stupidly small bet remaining and you're stuck that you have to call even if the SD or FD turns.
So that leaves you with all bad choices except for AI. You might not win, but you will have gotten it in good.
H takes it 200
Folds around to V1 who tank sigh folds
V2 jams
H calls
V2 shows kings.
Turn brings a 9
River brings a queen.
V2 wins ~780 pot with a runner straight
I don’t think there was any way for me to win this hand. But I posted because I was wondering if jamming flop could have kept V1 in the hand making for an even bigger pot.
