River Decision

Not sure if this answers your question, But maybe we should be asking "What worse hands is V calling with if we raise?" He lead bet with an Ace on the river. If he is value betting than the Ace doesn't scare him and he maybe stronger than two pair. If he is bluffing he will not call a raise.

There is a straight out there. My last session there was a similar situation. Limped multiway pot. H in BB with 5 3o. Flop gets checked through. Turn, I bet 2/3 with an open ended draw. 2 callers. River an Ace to complete my wheel. I bet 1/3. Button minclicks and I reraised. He could have saved money with a call.

V could have 55s, a straight, or AQ(not everyone 3! here) that beat you. He could have 8Q, A5, or Ah that are losing to you. Will he call with just one pair of Aces?

I just think a raise gets you in trouble, or gets you a fold. Without a read on Opponent It might be better to play it safe.

Yeah appreciate the feedback

nawww u gotta raise river here.

psychologically, you cbet flop, checked turn, and an ace hit on the river. thats a good card for your range. If he has a hand thats better than an ace here he would be praying u hit the ace, and he would either bomb the river or go for a XR. this half pot size makes no sense with a hand thats better than AK/AJ.

IMO hes bluffing a lot, or he hit the ace with like A7/A4/AhXh.

i would go for the raise here and fold to a 3bet. not too big tho, maybe 45-55

Easy raise.

His range air, Ax, they sometimes even have Qx or hands like 87 as half bluff half value that don't know wtf they're doing.

We don't lose to much hands. {88/79/A8hh} These type of hands are super rare.
AJ probably the worst hand I'm raising this river.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - bet smaller, like 1/3 pot.

TURN - check back is fine.

RIVER - that 1/2 pot bet after we check back turn will often be a bluff or thin value. We can probably raise any aces up combo here, but if we want to be conservative we might raise AQ and A8 and just flat with A6 and A5.

This is a perfect raise + fold to a re-raise spot
I would be raising any 2 pair here + maybe AK if I got here like this

Gotta value raise. Making it 40; insta fold to reraise.

I had this conversation with another player and I said if I was going to raise I would raise 45 - 50 and he wanted to go to 100 which I thought was way to big IMO

cheers and yeah I would snap fold to a re raise haha

yeah I had another comment about betting 1/3 on the flop. Would aces up be the worst hand you would raise here or would you raise any two pair

I would probably raise to $45-$60, not $100. But $75 might be okay, too. The bigger you raise, the more you funnel V into only calling with stronger hands.

As played I'd only raise aces up. If we checked back turn with Q8 for some reason, I'd probably raise that too. V is going to have a lot of Ax that won't fold to a small raise. He might also get curious with some worse 2P combos, and occasionally Qx.

Yeah I never actually saw what he had but when I called he announced two pair and I showed and won

Kind of wondering if they were going for a x-r with 86? I wouldn't x-c with 65dd there, but people will. And I'd think they'd donk more than 1/2 with aces up.

Oh well, almost better I don't understand their logic.

Based on the action, my guess would be he turned 2P with Q8, was hoping to check-raise, but then didn't like the ace on the river. He'd have to be pretty loose to flat pre with 86, and then call the 2/3 pot c-bet with the BB still to act.

As played, I'd feel pretty good raising river with A6 as the PFR vs a SB flat caller who comes out and donks 1/2 pot. I'd only be worried about A8. And if V is on the tighter side, it should only be 1 combo of A8hh, if he even calls with that hand pre.

Circling back to this - if we raised river, I wouldn't expect V to 3B ever. If he had 97 or 74 for a straight, he'd probably donk for a larger size on the river, when that ace is so good for our range. There really aren't any other hands that can 3B for value if we raise.

This is why I'd only be worried about V having A8, or maybe occasionally AQ if he's really passive. Even if he had AQ, or he somehow has a set, we can have AA/QQ. Most low stakes opponents aren't going to want to get stacks in on the river with 66/55 or worse.

Not saying you shouldn't fold to a 3B. Just saying I don't think it happens anywhere near often enough to be concerned about it.

But if we raised to $45-$75, and he 3B, which I assume would just be a jam, I'd be very curious. If I thought V was capable of turning a worse value hand into a bluff, I might flick in the call, when we're blocking AA, 66, AQ, and A8, and it seems unlikely V would flat call pre and then bet small-3B river with 97/74/AQ/A8/88/66/55.

Based on the general player pool I would not say any of them are capable of doing that as a bluff

You're deep enough here. You're starting out 300 eff, and still have 288 going to the river. He bets 15 into 28, you make it 45, he tanks and comes over the top for $150.

If he's betting worse than A6 for value, he knows his hand isn't strong enough to call when you raise, so he decides to turn it into a bluff, because he believes he has the range and nut advantage on this board, where he could have all the best hands and you probably don't. If he has A9hh or A7hh, or even just A4hh or A5hh, it's a pretty sexy play, blocking some of our aces up and set combos, and possibly blocking some straights.

The challenge I have is that his nutted hands are going to bet bigger than 1/2 pot when the river card hits your range so hard. You could have a ton of aces up here that he won't, so his straights are going to size up. This 1/2 pot looks exactly like thin value or a bluff. His bluffs are going to fold to our raise, but his thin value hands might go for it.

Like, what hands do we lose to that would play that way, as a flat call pre, a check-call on flop, and a 1/2 pot lead out on the river, and then a 3B over our raise?