AKo Bluff Catch on River with Horrible Run-Out?
Hello all, please tell me what you think of this hand and if it is profitable to call a reasonable amount of time in the long run.
Villain's history and stack: Has donk bet all streets once after flopping second pair in a heads-up hand. Stack: ~$225
Hero's history and stack: 4-bet a tilted player and called a jam for an inconsequential amount more with A2s. This tilted player previously 3-bet me with K10o and lost the all-in with 56s. Villian saw that I could 3-bet light. Stack: ~$325
Game: 9 people; 1/2 live NLH
Preflop: UTG+1 raises to $6, MP (LJ) calls, hero raises to $25 with AKo (sizing high because MP (LJ) is sticky). UTG+1 folds, MP (LJ) calls $25. Pot = ~$50
Flop: K Q 4 (all different suits). Villain bets a pot-sized bet of $50. Hero calls $50. Pot: $150.
Turn: 10♦ (two diamonds out there; possible flush draw; AJ is now a straight, and there are many straight draws with Jx). Villain continues with a 1/3 pot bet of $50. Hero calls $50. Pot: $250.
River: 9♦ (3 diamonds out there, flush; any Jx made a straight). Villain jams all in for $100 more. Pot: $350. Pot odds (with $11 rake) = 100 / (100 + 250 + 100 - 11) ≈ 23%. Possible villain's range on river (guess): AQ-A10s, KTs+, QJo-QTs, JTs, AQo, KQo. Clear value hands: AJs, KJs, QJs, and any diamond flush (AdQd, KdQd, KdTd, AdTd). Confusing value hands: KQ, KTs (non-diamond), QTs (non-diamond), as these might bet more or jam on turn instead of river. Bluffs: AQ, A10s. AQ is way more likely (see villain's history). Against this range, AKo has ~30% equity. AJs and some K combos are blocked; however, bluffs are also blocked by an ace. Live read: young player (around age 18-20) and hands are shaking, which both can indicate more bluffs (he does not play like an online player), but live players tend to bluff less. Considering my equity is higher than pot odds, I should call. If we assume he would not play the confusing value hands in this fashion (range now AQs-ATs, KJs, QJs, JTs, KdQd, KdTd, QdTd, AQo), then hero's equity is 50%.
Question: What do you think the villain's range is on the river (or all streets)? Is this a tough call or a quick fold?
Result: message me if you would like to know
7 Replies
Larger preflop. I would shove for pot over villain pot sized donk bet on the flop. As played, shove the turn. Call the river getting 3.5-1.
Probably better to be sure of isolating preflop by raising more. Agree with deuceblocker.
Flop: WTF can V possibly donk with here? Is he really bad enough to donk into a board strongly favoring H's range? It's really strange. I lean toward calling and letting him own himself. I don't want to raise him off of something like KJ or KT.
Turn: this is the decision point because the board is very wet and H has to fade half the deck on river. I assume H doesn't have Ad, though it certainly matters here in the analysis.
I think at this stack size (225 eff) we have to jam turn over his block bet. There a few rivers we want to see and if he has it, we have redraws.
AP: this is the nut-worst river for H. I suppose we have to call against this particular V but it's close. I think it's a population fold though.
Thank you deuceblocker and Spanishmoon for your replies.
A few mistakes on my previous post: 1) did not remember which card on the flop was a diamond (I do not think there was a Kd; if it was the Qd, then that blocks him from having KdQd, AdQd, or QdJd; or, if it was a 4d, then that unblocks high suited cards); 2) I did not mention that I did not have a diamond in my hand. This unblocks Ad or Kd suited combos; however, AQo with Ad could potentially bluff this river.
Jam Flop: I am unsure about jamming flop. Pros: after the "villian" donk bets, there is only a 1.5 effective SPR, which leads for little space for maneuvering and he may call with KJ and K10 hands still. Cons: If he is playing really bad and donking a pot sized bet with AQ or QJ, then I want him to continue putting money in the pot, and betting if he checks on the turn. Maybe AA can jam flop instead of AK because AA unblocks top pair.
Jam Turn: I now do see merit in jamming turn considering I have AA, KK, QQ, KQ, and AK that can play this way and this may protect against draws or get them to call with bad odds. With AK and AA, I still have the redraw to the nut straight. The Jam would only be ~$100 more and he would gets odds of ~23% to call (100 call/(150 pot + 50 bet + 150 jam + 100 call - 11 rake), which may get a fold or a good river card for me, beating the draws.
What does a donk bet mean on this flop?: I am still confused as to what range the villain has on the flop after donking into my range (Value: KQ, QQ?, 44?; Semi-bluff: J10s?; Player tendency: AQ? QJ? Q10?).
Results: I made the call on the river because of the reads (young player with a non-online play style and shaking hands), the pot odds (AK wins against his assumed range 30% of the time and pots odds are 23%), and I did not think KQ, QT, KT, QT, or 44 play this line instead of jamming on the turn, which if correct gives me higher equity against his range. However, there are not many bluffs I beat, besides 8 combos of AQ and 3 combos of A10s (non-diamond), as most of the bluffs got there on the river. He showed
Spoiler
AhQh
, but if I am ever in a similar situation again, I would definetely jam turn.
I would make things easy and shove flop. Alternatively can shove every turn, I don’t think there’s a big difference.
Based on your description, V is an idiot. If I'm doing the math right he's only got $100 left after his turn bet? Just stick the rest in. He'll be getting 3.5 to 1 on a call, and will likely find it very hard to fold. If he out-flopped us, nice hand, good game.
I think river is pretty close, and could be just bad ... even with the 2nd pair read the only thing you beat on the river is AQ (unless he can also have Q8 or even worse)?
As other said, having the Ad or Kd matters. Also if the Qd is on the flop.
