1/3/5 pot control or thin value oop vs fisv?

I really don't want to read 3 hand histories before the actual hand histories that matter. Its too much, and hardly even relevant.

Would check as played.

Grunch:

PRE - Raise bigger at a loose splashy table with deep stacks and loose passive fish who like to see flops.

FLOP - As the PFR on ace-high flops, my default line is to check or over-bet. With the two diamonds on board, I think I'd over-bet here, though a roughly 1/2 pot c-bet doesn't seem terrible. It's just not folding out much, nor is it extracting max value from all the worse hands and draws that will call a larger bet just to see the turn.

TURN - Check or bet small, to re-cap V, like maybe 1/2 pot or a little less. He's likely to raise most hands that beat ours, and may occasionally make a bad fold.

Based on the prior hand histories, you know this V likes to see flops with all sorts of trashy hands, including unsuited and weak AX, and some high-low combos like J6, so he could show up here with flushes, some 2P, occasionally 99 if he limps in with that pre (seems unlikely, but you know your V better than I do), and possibly some optimistic draws, or 1P + a draw.

The fact that his range is so wide is why we don't really want to bet huge on the turn. If his tendency is to either bet small with value, but not bluff much, and not bet with what he thinks is thin value, then checking to let him stab at it is fine, though his bet size may not tell us much.

It sort of comes down to how often he's going to stab on the turn with a hand that might improve on the river, versus how often he's calling a turn bet and calling off a river bet if he doesn't make a better hand.

If you want to simplify, just pot control by checking and evaluating. Our hand doesn't really want to play a huge pot, and we have enough showdown value to win if it goes check-check, and possibly enough to call if we check and he bets small.

So, either check turn, or bet small. If you bet small and he raises, I'd probably fold, because you haven't given him any rope that would induce him to start bluffing.

Flop overbetting, villain would fold his marginal hands (he has folded to big bets before with hands he wanted to continued)
I was going to barrel most turns for value then check/call river.
As for villain stabbing turns, he's super passive on flops and turns for the most part. He only gets aggro on rivers after you check. If he bets over half pot on turn, I'd snap fold vs him.

What marginal hands does he have that are going to call a 1/2 pot c-bet but won't call a full pot bet or over-bet? Think about it...

You raised pre. You could have AA, KK, 99, AK, A9, and conceivably K9 on this board. If he can't fold any AX combo, or any flush draw combo when you c-bet 1/2 pot, is he really folding to a full pot bet?

He clearly doesn't understand or doesn't care about range / nut advantage on the flop. If he has AX or some sort of draw, he's inelastic, and will call a bigger bet. If he folds a hand like 88 or TT on this flop when you bet full pot, was he going to call if you bet 1/2 pot?

It's not a tragedy if he folds some hands on the flop when all we have is top pair with a crap kicker. It's a huge win if he folds AQ or AJ. It's kind of a tragedy if we bet so small that he continues with his entire range, we get no definition of his range at all, and then the turn is a card that makes him a better hand, or kills the action. If we have the best hand on the flop, we want to get max value, as soon as possible, before our hand gets downgraded.

How many turns can you really barrel, if you c-bet small and he calls? Are you going to bet on another diamond? What about a T, J, or Q? Another 9? Another K? If he's calling with any AX, then any turn card could make him aces up. How often is he calling a turn barrel if he doesn't improve in some way?

Why is your plan to barrel most turns, and then check-call river? Is it because you think the run-out is going to make it hard for you to get three streets? If so, then don't you want to get max value on the flop, so your turn bet can be bigger?

When the turn is another diamond, and part of his continue range on the flop is diamond draws, wouldn't he bet for value if he makes a flush? You're saying you've seen enough from him to know he's NEVER going to bet this turn card, either for value or as a semi-bluff, if you check? I find that assessment hard to credit if you don't have at least 10 or 20 hours playing against him.

Even if your assessment is correct, and he NEVER bets turn, for value or as a bluff, and he'll ONLY bet rivers if you check, is he ALWAYS going to bet the river if you go bet-bet-check? He NEVER checks back on the river?

Say you bet this turn, and he calls, then he bets huge on the river when you check - you're calling? Say you check this turn, and the river is another diamond - again, you're calling any bet? Say you check turn, and on the river he shows you a hand that would have folded to a turn bet, but improved to a better hand.

If your plan is to fold if he bets more than 1/2 pot on turn, then check, and fold if he bets. If your plan is to just go 1/2 pot on the flop, but then you don't know what to do on the turn, you'll really be guessing on the river, no matter what it is.

Opponents tend to get more elastic based on the board on later streets. On the flop, they're much less elastic. He either has a hand that can call a c-bet or he doesn't, and if he does, he'll call a bigger bet. Just because you bet smaller doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be increasing the size of his continue range in a proportional way.

Like, if he's continuing to a full pot bet with 20% of his range, he's not continuing with 40% because you only bet 1/2 pot. You have to bet really small to get him to call with PP's 88 or lower, and his trashiest back door draws. But it only makes sense to give him that sort of price when you have the board on lockdown, or you're drawing to the nuts. Neither is the case here, on this board.

The thing about your hand is that it's pretty thin value, and this is a pretty dynamic board. Your hand is unlikely to improve on future streets. You can't play it like it's the nuts, and it's too strong to play it like a bluff.