AJo vs straightforward LP
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
Fun games being had on a Saturday night. Our table is okay, lots of regs and a couple unknowns. We're up and have been playing well and winning and we cover the table.
V1 - unknown mawg. looks trashy, unkempt hair, undershirt, hasn't been too active but definitely a fish. Has limp called for a vpip around 25-35% and seems angry as he's been losing. Bought in for 500 and is down to about 350. MP. 350.
V2 - loose passive mawg I have a lot of hours with. Very straightforward pre and post. Understands that JJ+ should be played aggressively but can't really read the board or understand relative hand strengths, bad at sizing (usually bets very large with value to deny equity which means you just have to fold your draws), limp calling range is full of crap, sizing tell linear with open size. Opening range is quite premium especially over several limps. 650$. CO.
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UTG straddles, V1 limps, V2 to 25, folds to H in BB who sees A♥ J♠ and just calls, V1 calls. 3-ways OOP.
Flop 75 - K♥ Q♦ 8♥
Checks through
Turn 75 - T♦
I lead for 100, V1 folds, V2 just calls seemingly annoyed
River 275 - 2♥
Hero? V2 has 525 back...
7 Replies
bet/fold 200 target 2pairs and sets
I probably fold pre with no position and usually dominated by villains range.
So villain range is mostly tt, jj according to your reads.
If he overvalues sets on this board we can even bet bigger to like 350.
Grunch:
PRE - good no 3B..
FLOP - standard check is standard.
TURN - good slight over-bet.
RIVER - we have the best hand here almost always. But don't think we can bet very large when V checks flop and flats turn. Probably just betting $275.
Unless I'm misreading what this guy is likely opening with, isn't this a trivial preflop fold versus this guy's range and OOP?
Also checking the flop.
I love the big overbet on the turn. I can't really think of a single hand in this guy's range that doesn't smash this board to the point where he is unlikely to continue to almost any sizing (with the exception of underpairs, of which he isn't calling any bet).
With us having the A hearts, it is highly unlikley he's made a flush. Some of his draws have busted but I doubt he's bluffing those. So I would target some tricky premiums by going quite big on the river.
GcluelessNLnoobG
FWIW, the larger we bet here, the harder it gets for V to call with worse, and the more likely it becomes that V only calls with his flushes.
Assuming V has 2P or a set at *BEST*, and will usually just have 1P, we shouldn't go too big if we want V to call. Even betting pot may be too big. Think we can probably size down to $200 to get called by AA, JJ, and TT.
Villian checked flop so I heavily discount flushes and definitely no sets/KQ. When he calls 100 OTT I'm thinking he can have TT, A with diamonds, K with diamonds, KJ. I think OTR he has more hands that would need to bluff then call so I'd check - interesting to hear what he had.
So I try to think about the fact I have the Ah and decide his hand is most likely AQ or JJ, I think TT he would raise turn but maybe not for my sizing. Soooo
Result:
Spoiler
I only bet 75$ trying to target 1-pair hands, and maybe inducing a spazz from TT if he has it? He tanks and cuts out a raise several times looking like he's going to go 275, at the last second he wimps out or it was just hollywood and he calls the 75. I show and he says 'lucky turn' and mucks.
So I try to think about the fact I have the Ah and decide his hand is most likely AQ or JJ, I think TT he would raise turn but maybe not for my sizing. SooooResult:
Oof.
I mean...the fact that he was considering a raise suggests your sizing has some merit, but it's hard for most low stakes opponents to A) think you're bluffing or betting for thin value with a hand that will fold to a raise when you take this line, and B) have the courage to raise as a bluff when they can just call the small bet and win when you are bluffing.
Not trying to beat you up. The hand-reading here suggests he has AA, JJ, or maybe occasionally TT or 99. We could probably bet larger if it was an off-suit 2 on the river, or any brick. Doubtful he'd fold AA or TT for $200, but he'd probably snap-fold JJ or 99.
You got good value with your turn bet. Hard to get stacks in on this board when V mostly just has 1P. At least you bet something on the river, and if he raises 10% of the time, your small bet size has some extra EV.
