KQs nut flush 1/3/6 - 650 eff
Pretty sure i should just bet turn in this game smh
UTG+1 - loose pre, doesnβt seem to be that good but is up a ton. Earlier in 3b he xr flop on A72r where i donβt think u should have any raises but meh.
BU - euro woman, reg at the club but makes huge mistakes sometimes, my last hand with her she raised jammed turn w/ ATo in a 3b pot on AJ27 double fd board when i had JJ and her reasoning was she thought i was on a draw cause i bet 1/2p on turn. she is not afraid to bluff off as iβve seen jn the past.
straddle is on
1/3 6 strad
UTG+1 limps, i raise to 30 with KQcc, bu calls, UTG+1 calls
flop AT4cc
pot 97
x, cbet 40, call. call
turn 7c
pot 220ish
xxx - my thoughts at the time is i will usually not have flushes and be checking my range here, and felt bu would bet her flushes (ofc), sets, 2p+. Also because i hold KQcc, betting into pair plus fd, they arenβt really sticking around. Iβm losing value from sets and smaller flushes ofc, but sets prob raise flop as well and flushes from UTG will just bet river and i can still jam to get the money in.
river Jx
220ish
x, i bet 175
at this point i can only hope Jx made someone 2p or a straight tho unlikely since i hold KQ myself. thoughts? tia
7 Replies
I think it's well-played. You might go 30 or 35 on flop, but whatever.
The only issue is whether to make a slightly bigger bet on river. Anyone with a straight or a flush will probably call up to psb getting 2-1. That said, I think we would have heard from small flushes on turn.
BU euro lady V sounds inelastic and she had to have something even to call the flop. Hopefully she had gutshot or AJ.
Turn easy bet to like 100, they'll call with alot of range including sets, Ax and some draws. They'll also raise you with flushes then you can get stacks in.
River bet sizing seems too much, if they slowplayed a flush, when you bet pot, they might just flat. If they have only Ax, they aren't calling this big of a size. Probably bet like 100ish.
I think most players like to slowplay when they have the nuts. But they forget the times when they bluff, they forget the times when opponent will call you off stacks. Not saying slowplaying is bad but it's alot harder to get value from passive players. Slowplaying has its merits vs aggro players which is not the case here.
Value betting is probably what makes or breaks you as a winning player imho.
Yeah, bet turn. You have the nuts and as the preflop raiser it doesn't look like you should have a flush. Get value from sets while they have outs. Don't set them draw for free. River is too big, as you have the nuts and block 2nd nuts. What can they call you with?
What position are we in? I would limp in unless we happen to be the CO. If raising I think you could argue for a much smaller one at this stack size to simply juice the pot to a nicer higher SPR.
I'm cool with the flop bet with a bunch of equity and some FE.
I mean, I understand that it may be unlikely we're up against much that can continue here given the way things have played out. But people also sometimes make massive mistakes (as in read), so I probably still bet the turn large to attempt to setup a river shove for stacks.
With the nuts on the river, I think it is rarely a horrendous play to shove and just hope someone makes a massive incorrect read / has backed into a strong hand. Otherwise, fine with a big bet.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Instead of slow-playing by checking turn, just bet small. You could bet 70 to 110 here, hoping worse flushes will raise, but not be too worried about opponents over-folding after they call your flop c-bet. If they fold, they probably only had weak AX at best, and we probably got max value with our flop c-bet.
On the river, I think we can size up to polarize, especially since we didn't bet turn. Opponents could have some other KQ combos here, but also lower straights with 98, and just a lot of 2P combos that won't want to fold if we bet around 80% pot, like $175-$180.
If you had bet the turn, then I'd size down to maybe 2/3 pot, or size way up to get called by worse flushes and straights. Alternatively, we could size WAY down, like 10% pot, if we think an opponent is capable of pouncing on the small sizing and raising as a bluff, or with worse value.
Thanks for replies, betting turn small is prob the way to go, as it allows lower flushes to raise for value as mentioned. Even 2p+ may feel like they have to raise as it will look like a blockish type bet.
On river bu did call, she had rivered a straight tho i dont know for sure as she did not show. Had i bet small on the river im almost positive she would've jammed smh. all in the game.
Thanks for replies, betting turn small is prob the way to go, as it allows lower flushes to raise for value as mentioned. Even 2p+ may feel like they have to raise as it will look like a blockish type bet.On river bu did call, she had rivered a straight tho i dont know for sure as she did not show. Had i bet small on the river im almost positive she would've jammed smh. all
It seems like you lost a little value by not betting turn, but we can't know for sure. She might have folded turn, even to a small bet, when all she has is the ISSD, no flush cards. Your check on the turn might have gotten you more value, because she called your river bet of 80% pot.
I wouldn't necessarily expect her to jam over a small bet on the river with a straight. Even if she's prone to make mistakes and over-bluff, she's probably over-bluffing with hands that can't win at showdown, more often than turning a strong hand into a bluff by over-playing it. It kind of depends on the stack sizes, how small you go, and her read on you.
Like, if you go raise pre, 40% flop, 40%-50% turn, and then 10% on the river, that's a line a thinking opponent will view as somewhat polar when the turn changes the nuts, but the river completes some other draws. A good player won't jam as a bluff, when a small raise will fold out all your worse value, some chops, and all your bluffs.
That line says you have a flush you know is good, a straight you hope is good, or some other hand that blocks the nuts, KX with the Kc. Our nut flushes are hoping to induce a raise, our straights just want to get called, and our bluffs are hoping for folds, but don't mind folding to a raise, of any size. If she's sitting there with a straight, she's mostly just hoping to fold out a chop if she raises, and she's free-rolling if she raises small when we also just have a straight we might fold.
It's kind of a disaster if we bet 10% pot, she clicks it to 3x, we jam, and she just folds, when she might have sigh-called an 80% to full pot bet, or even an over-bet.
That's why I suggested sizing up after we check turn. We're not repping many nutted hands when we go raise, c-bet 40%, check, 80% to 125% over-bet. That line looks SUPER polar, and it's hard for opponents to think we're nutted when we check the turn. Many will level themselves into calling when they make their hand on the river.
I wouldn't hate it if we bet 10% pot here, but I like the over-bet better. The small bet to induce a raise works best against spaz-prone opponents who think our line is FOS, and especially in situations where the SPR is still pretty high going to the river.
We can't know she has KQ here. If she has 2P or even 98, our 80% pot bet is probably the right size to target her entire range, and might still be small enough to induce a raise at some small frequency.
I think you played it fine. Don't beat yourself up.