Is this already max value with flop nuts?

300

I go about $300 as well.

I bet $50 OTF, yes its gross if they fold and we block Ax but I'm betting this flop big with a narrow range and I think the nuts should be in it. Flush draw + straight draw hits a lot of fish ranges as well.

I limp in but that's my style.

I think we are losing massive value by downbetting monsters against your typical LLSNL crowd. Look at the hand and size bets your villain called preflop and flop with. Plus we're in a hand with a spew fish. They aren't folding a draw to virtually any price, and they might even just gambool it up with middle pair + backdoor or whatever. We would also like to play for stacks by the river, and a big flop bet at SPR 14 starts making that possible. So I mash the flop here for like $60.

Also think we're missing large value on the turn with this sizing too. Is anyone folding a draw here for $50 or even a little more?

Against a bluffy villain there is more reason for a small bet to induce. But against a passive player I would never do this. I would probably go very large just hoping she has 9x or is unlucky enough to have the other Ax. A passive calling station type player just raised the river. I think you could actually argue for a shove here since 99 seems so unlikely given the flop play.

One of the single biggest benefits to raising preflop (which I admittedly don't) is that it builds a pot for when we hit, thus allowing us to play for much larger stacks postflop, but we did not take advantage of this at all, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This V called an open to 20 with QTo, then called a 50 from the raiser with a 160 pot, with 6 clean outs. Then x-bombs huge with the nuts. V's calling whatever you put down there, so long as she's drawing. So oblige her.

I dunno if I'm going overpot on A9dd8x, but I'm not 1/3'ing it. That pool has a bunch of draws on that flop, and you can do a great impression of a scared broadway ace trying to kill their drawing odds. Probably going 40 or so. (Rereading turn, if she's drawing, she'll hang around, and if she's not, she won't. So were and GG are right. Go bigger than 40.)

The pairing 9 turn...she either has a 9, an ace, or she's still drawing, because you guys are deeeeep. There's still like 9x the pot in your stacks on turn. So she'll call a chunky bet here. B33, even though paired board, is not great at all.

River, betting 1/6 into a passive is just w/e. Because turn and flop were so small, we didn't narrow her range, and I guess with the draws bricking and wanting her to call something, H can't bet like she has a 9 or an A. So I see it. But now she raises you small though still 3x. She still has 570(!) back.

I don't know if she calls off a pot-sized raise like 300 with 9x. If she will, fine, do that. Almost want to bet 200/call a shove. If she's got 99, good for her.

I don't mind the flop.. maybe I'm missing some exploitative play here but I'm not as convinced Vs are calling as wide for pot.

Turn should go big though for sure. 9x is never folding. Ax probably can't find a fold either. She might or might not stick around with draws, but I don't think it's worth caring about whether you can stack off boat over flush/straight when the draw is unlikely to hit anyway. Really hoping to get value from 9x here.

After the river bricks, still not sure I see the benefit of betting small - what is calling a tiny bet here that isn't calling much more? Would again go bigger, hoping for 9x and figuring plenty of Ax will at least think about it.

As played, agree with $300-ish for the 3b and (after typing this) see that's where you went.

Flop I can see betting light to keep the spewfish in, but if they'll call $15 they'll call $20, so you might as well do $20.

Turn you have to size up. Villain might even think she's caught you with AK and raise you with 9x right there.

River obviously goes differently with a bigger pot, but as played a PSR from you looks about right.

Lol this looks like the hand from "Rounders" where Teddy KGB stacks Matt Damon.

Flop: slightly bigger
Turn: HU I go bigger. This sizing is okay if the spewfish didn't fold to the c-bet.

River: All draws brick. We block most of her value except 9x, so we have no value bets here. Make a polar bet.

AP river: with 225 in the pot, I want to give her 2-1 to call so she cannot fold the case Ax if she has it. So I raise something like 225.

I go bigger on the flop to look like I'm trying to discourage draws. Turn is OK, but could be a little bigger, too. River I'd go $200. I think $300 is pushing it.

Yeah, you're definitely leaving a ton on the table with this line. The small flop bet is defensible in a multiway pot if you're trying to keep the spewfish in with worse, but this board smashes CO and BB ranges—tons of combo draws, pair+draw, T7s, JTdd, even naked diamonds. Even if you have a tight image, you're ahead of everything here and should be building the pot. Flop could easily be $40–50, and I’m not worried about folding out worse when most of the hands we want to get value from aren’t folding anything for $50 anyway.

Turn is where the biggest leak is. The 9 pairing is actually great for your hand—now you beat all trips, and any 9x is never folding. Players at this level aren’t finding folds with 9x, A9, 98s, or even stuff like T9s. And they’re still calling with diamond draws or weird straight stuff. $25 into $76 is just not pushing any value edge you have. I’d be going more like $60–80, maybe more if you think V is a station.

River’s a brick and you go *min* again. That $25 is giving a free showdown to any missed draw, and it’s never folding out 9x or Ax. Honestly, just looks like a scared value bet or a weak stab. If you want to get called by worse, bet bigger. This isn’t a spot to balance or induce—V is passive, not going to spaz over your small bet. So you’re just missing value from her sticky calls. I’d size closer to $100+ here, if not pot.

As played, once she check-raises to $75, it’s pretty much 9x always. Could be A9 or 98, maybe the case Ace if she got weird, but I think she mostly has trip nines and doesn’t want to miss value. She has like $570 back, so yeah, go $250–300 and hope she talks herself into calling with 9x. Shove is fine too if you think she’s stationy enough or leveling herself.

This hand feels like you slow-played a monster all the way down, gave her a perfect chance to underrep her hand, and now you’ve got one last shot to get paid. Go big.

Flop and turn sizings seem bad. It is a pretty wet board on the flop. Aside from value, you can't let flush and straight draws draw cheap. It is about the flop, not the specific opponents. Turn, I don't understand 1/3 pot at all. Sure, he might fold on the paired board, but you have to try to build the pot.

I think I just 3b jam river. Is V really going to xr/fold? If you had air and she showed you a 9, how much would you have to bet to get her to fold?

Grunch:

PRE - seems standard.

FLOP - I'd bet bigger, at least pot, if not a slight over-bet, targeting worse AX, 2P, and draws.

TURN - think betting small to induce raises is good, but we could still bet half pot, like $35-$40, rather than $25.

RIVER - think we could either over-bet, targeting worse AX or 9x when all the draws miss, or size down to induce a raise. But given the pot size is somewhat small, we don't need to go that small. We could bet like 1/3 pot, around $40-$45.

All things considered, my preference would be to go polar with an over-bet, unless we have a read that V is prone to spaz-raise small bets. I'd rather try to induce a raise when we're OOP. In position, I think it's better to just bet for max value when action checks to us. They're either checking to call or checking to fold. Her calling range should be pretty inelastic.

When she check raises 3x, my first thought is that she's probably not going to put more money in if we look too eager to play for stacks. So I'd fake tank, squint my eyes a bit, look up, like I'm trying to remember the action, then after maybe 10 seconds, verbally declare all in while pushing out a stack of chips that's more than $75.

I think the big mistake in this hand is the flop bet size. On ace high boards, opponents don't tend to fast play thick value as much, and tend to over-fold the weakest parts of their range.

Think about their ranges as being in three buckets - very weak hands that are folding to any bet, somewhat weak hands that are very elastic and will mostly fold to any bet that isn't very small, and hands that are very inelastic, and will call a very large bet, but very rarely raise a small bet.

So we're not getting more value from their range when we bet small, we're just missing value from the parts of their range that are inelastic.

If we bet bigger on the flop, the pot will be bigger on future streets, and our opponents will make more costly mistakes. Even when we size down with our bets, the bets will be bigger when the pot is bigger.

On the turn I'd size down somewhat because all the drawing hands in their range become more elastic, and all the 9x hands improve enough that they might raise to get value from our draws and AX.

It occurs to me that what happened here is that when we made this small bet on the turn, Villain went into “he probably has nothing, I have to slowplay and give him rope” mode.

Turn bet was too small. I suspect that in this particular hand, if you had bet like you had aces up, Villain would have raised turn, after which you can either 3bet turn and jam river, or call turn and jam river over her bet.

I think as played I also just jam river and dare Villain to make a big laydown. I think this line is sometimes 98/88 and she’s not going anywhere if so. If I’m not jamming, I’m actually raising smaller. This is a spot where there are probably few hands that are calling a medium-sized raise but not a big one.

I also don’t like the flop. Others have said to bet bigger, and I agree your sizing was too small, but is there anything to be said for checking to the spewy fish behind us hoping to get a check/raise in?

Flop too small, turn too small, river 3-bet too small. Too afraid of not getting called.

On the two-tone board, I'd expect 98/88 to raise flop, and 9x to raise turn. When she flats flop and turn, then x/r's river, I'm thinking she either slow played a prior street, or she's bluffing. A bluff isn't calling any raise, and 9x or better isn't folding when she slow plays earlier streets. So there's no point in raising less than all in.

The irony here is that while she's slow playing her strong hand, she probably doesn't think we'd slow play AA by betting small for three streets, so she's likely to level herself into thinking we're over-playing AK, and flick in the call.

I would go at least 500 maybe jam. I assume she has a lot of trips and boats here.