5/T/25 2pair facing pressure OOP

Preflop: against very wide ranges, I'm content to flat call here preflop with a hand that plays well multi-way. I realize GTO doctrine now is to strictly 3b! JTs from sb. I would probably make an exception in this guy's case based on the description.

AP flop: I'm making a polar bet, repping semi-bluff, NFD or QQ needing equity denial. Just can't recommend downbet on wet, dynamic board giving V almost direct odds to call us with SD/FD. We block all V's value except maybe QQ. So I want to overcharge him for draws. If he folds, that's okay.

AP Turn: we now lose to ATs/AJs and KQs - all logical holdings for V. We have as much KQs as he does and we can have AA, so I think we can x and try to get to showdown. I think fastplay is better here on flop.

Dirty turn, x/call , re-evaluate river imo

Grunch: JT3 with a flush draw is a board where villain has a few hands that auto fold to most sizing (55-99, with some of the lower combos discounted), some hands that are trying to get all the money in (TT, JJ), and lots of draws and medium-to-strong hands (ATs, AQ, KQ, 89, Axss, AJs, KJs)
We have TT-AA, AK, AQ, KQ, Axs hands. I think these hands have some checks and some large bets on the flop, but very few small bets. If we have $3350 effective stack size, a bet of $700 gives us $2315 in the pot OTT and 2650 in our stack which makes for a nice jamming size with a good bit of our range. It makes hands like AQ, 89, AT uncomfortable in a way that $350 does not. And it reduces the number of streets we need to play out of position. tl;dr - I like bigger on the flop when we bet, with a mix of some check & give ups and some check & continues with hands like AA, JJ, AT, AJ, AQs types.

On this turn, with this action, the ace doesn't particularly favor either of you, maybe slightly better for your range. The sizing is really awkward, I think we're forced into checking KK/QQ fairly often which means we need SOME protection for that range when we check, but JT isn't really a good one to get that protection since it's so vulnerable. I think I'm probably jamming it? But it's really awkward, because of flop sizing was so bad. Could definitely make an argument for check/jamming, but I think most villains will recognize how strong our range is / how much we check/call QQ/KK here, and won't go for it with their decent equity bluffs but will just check back and play a river.

According to the sims, we can find a very close x/f OTT against someone playing appropriately tight on a 3 BW board in a 3BP. But I think we just roll with it against described player and expect him to have more K9cc and 77 or whatever than he should.

Once we're resigned to getting stacked, I'd rather stick it in myself with this combo, even if the loose combos I happened to list above suggest otherwise.

I'm curious about rationale and strategy for the flop sizing. It's definitely too big to range bet, and if I'm using a mixed strat, I'd want to have a range for betting a bigger size, especially with this combo.

This flop plays a bunch of different sizings so you can even jam flop if you want. 1/3 sizing is not ideal for your actual hand but it’s okay.

As played go non geometric OTT and bet small again and then if he calls bet small on most rivers.

OP, what was the rationale for the flop sizing? If it was designed to induce a raise (after all it is a better board for his perceived range), then I like it.

This is a big reason. The flop is very good for his range and I expected to get raised a lot with this sizing. I also thought his more marginal hands (e.g. QJs, T9s would find a fold for something like 650+.

OTT, I was prepared to continue basically any card but this. The A is great for my range, but bad for extracting value from worse. Also, I could now have the worst hand.

Hero x, V 600. Hero?

Ugh, we're under-repped, but....

JJ, TT, 33 are all still ahead
KQ, AJ, AT, A3 all got there
We split with JT
And we're ahead of AQ, other Aces (if in range) and spade draws (if they don't take the free card)
We also only likely have 4 outs if we are behind, and they may not be clean either.

I think this is a fold, especially since we almost certainly face a big river bet or shove on the likely blank.

Whether I find this in game is a completely other question...

I’m sorry, I thought effective stacks were $1500.

Flop size is still big for the stated purpose, but not as unreasonable at this depth.

I think turn check is correct at this depth as we’re pretty middle of range. I would just peel the turn bet and see a river. It’s one of those spots where I’m almost cheering for a bad card to save the second half of our stack.

I like pre, flop, and turn. Now I peel and evaluate river.

My commentary on the turn bet from an offline conversation:

It's kinda gross 'cause I don't think villain is bluffing based on size, and it's not like he's turning 2nd pair into a bluff by betting 38% pot.

My sense of villain is that if he wanted win the pot without the best hand, he'd blastoff on this obvious scarecard, but this bet is a milk.

When there wasn't an A on the board, he put us on AK, now that an A came and we checked, he's like "Nevermind, he has QQ/KK!"

Obviously I'm still not folding 2 pair to a B38 against a splashy player--if nothing else, Jxss and AQ seem plausible. But it might be time to get off the ride when they jam the river, even on a frustratingly blank card.

Folds to CO (1500) who raises 75 with wide opening range. V calls (~7000), Hero (3750) in SB $400 with J♣T♣. CO folds, V tanks for 20 sec and calls.

Flop (915): J♥T♠3♠. Hero 350, V calls.

Turn (1615): A♦. Hero x, V 600. Hero calls.

River (2815) 6♠. Hero x, V shoves for ~2400 eff.

Hero?

This is online data so take this wiith a grain of salt but the Flush Complete Rivers are not an underbluffed data point in this line. It's because Population X's too many Flush Draws back OTT (for fear of getting check-raised) so when they take the C-B-B line they have less flushes than theory and as a result it becomes around neutral with the aggregate (overbluffed) on FCR.

The Triple BW OTT isn't a good data point though so it's still not clear in this spot. Ultimately, I would call down as a default because of preflop, he is going to be too wide in this spot.

One more important note is stack size. According to AI the deeper a player is the more hands they play, this happens live as well. The deeper the stack is the wider they play preflop. This also makes you want to call down here.

I think it's clear from my earlier posts ITT that I'm folding and tipping the dealer for making the decision easy for me by completing one of the frontdoor draws.

I struggled to put V on a hand. OTT, i was concerned about 2pr but river line makes that less likely. I thought most NFDs would've raised pre, flop, or turn, and few other FDs made sense. KQs would've raised pre, the Ts blocks a few, and other shouldn't have called pre. Also this is a weird line for KQo.

Ended up calling, V showed 78hh.

Nice call , i think most people would’ve found a fold there (myself included). Also doodoo’s post is pretty on point.

As I’ve always said, every LLSNL HH is a cooler and every MHSNL hand is a bluff.

Anyway, I think I’ve misinterpreted OP reads based on how you’re ranging V.

I was imagining a solid rec type. (MAWG drinking whiskey neat who has no fundamentals and open limps and all, but has a good feel for the game postflop).

Is this just a backpack reg with a loosey goosey streak? (Uses GTOw drills and HungryHorse videos to find new and endeavoring ways to click buttons, not realizing having T7o in their range completely invalidates whatever merits those plays might otherwise have.) I didn’t think they still made regs who cold call T7o…

NH, regardless. It only affects my turn sizing tell, not my river decision. I wouldn’t have found the call against either player because 3 broadway boards with a flush in 3bp are a no-fly zone for me in general. But I’m glad he had one of the 6 combos that didn’t at least pick up some perceived SDV along the way 😅

(Or like 10 if you add 50% each of 97s/Q9s/K9s)

Yeah, this is a pretty major caveat. The rivered flush possibility is one thing, but when several dozen combos of the OTHER front door draws already improved to at least top pair OTT, humans have to get reeeeeal creative to find enough bluff combos here.