AA River Decision on Double Paired Board
Been a while since I created a post, but wanted everyone's opinion on this hand.
Playing 1/2NL at my local card room, where I am a Friday regular. I'm known as a winning TAG
V: no previous knowledge on him, 1st time playing together. Sitting directly to my right. Basic low stakes calling station. He's been drinking & I have observed him calling way too much, probably about 75-80% of hands. He's stacked off a couple of times with second pair, but also with top pair/weak kicker (K3 for example). has rebought a couple of times & recently he's won a couple of hands with 2pr & he's the effective stack of about $500, I cover.
OTTH:
I pick up AA in the cut off. There's an early raise to $10 & like 3 callers, including V. I 3-bet to $55 & only V calls.
Flop: 10-8-5 Rainbow
V checks, H bets $65, V calls
Turn: 8
V checks, H Bets: $120, V calls
River: 10
V snap shoves for about $240
Decision???
5 Replies
Gross. Has he shown any aggression/bluffs? If not, I can't imagine how we are good here. Just a sick river card.
(Please put pot size on each street in future hands.)
Even though the shove isn't even a 1/2 psb, it's hard to see how we're ever good here against this opponent, especially since he could easily have a hand like ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s.
I haven't studied live MDA versus fish in this line so it is possible it is different but the call/call range is wider than the RFI/call range so that helps us here.
The paired river is a good data point because a lot of 66/77/5x get's counterfeited and it also reduces Tx combos.
Here is MDA for online for this line
Call down
AP River: This is a "computer" GTO call and a 1/2 population fold. I lean towards calling for reasons DooDoo pointed out.
That said, the decision point is the turn. What fricking 8x does this guy have after the preflop and flop action?
Turn pot is ~240 and V has roughly 380 behind. V has shown willingness to call down light and overvalue top pair. I'm betting the pot here at least, targeting his AT/KT and J9s.
I almost jammed on the turn, targeting all his 10x holdings & any lesser pairs. But figured I could extract more value on the river.
The 10 on the river really made it tough because now I'm not only losing to any 8x holding he may have had, but also any 10x. The way this guy had been calling everything light A10, K10, Q10, J10, 9/10 were all possible.
