1/2 NL - Top Set vs Maniac 200bb Deep Turn Decision
$1/$2 NL
Hero (BB) - $400
Villain (LJ) - Covers, ~$800
Villain is mid-20's, claims to mostly play $2/$5+ NL private games, said he's stuck from firing multiple bullets in a Borgata tournament, has been opening and 3!/calling 3! quite light (Q4o, 79o, etc), has gotten lucky a few times and built his stack up. He's the type to stab multiple times when checked to HU.
Hero is MAWG, been mostly card-dead for the last few hours so probably perceived as a nit
Villain opens to $15, Hero 3! to $60 in BB with A♥A♠, Villain calls
Pot $121
Flop A♦5♠7♠
Hero bets $40, Villain calls (would I have been better off check/calling since he's stab-happy or better to downbet here?)
Pot $201
Turn J♦
Hero??
Feels like a weird spot with 1.5 SPR here - I'm not sure how light he might call if I overbet jam here except with big combo draws (or if he thinks I'm capable of overbet-jamming air or a draw here), and betting half-pot/ or 75% pot leaves a minimal amount going into a river with a lot of scare cards. Any chance knowing his tendencies, we go for a check-jam here?
11 Replies
Turn checking through would be really bad. I think have to lead here. Probably $85-115. And jamming every river.
We block everything good. I would find a check on flop or turn. I think he’s floating flop with air or a weak hand a lot, let him do what he’s here to do which is blast off.
Checking the flop is a little too suspicious and when you put much money in, it'll be easy for him to fold. I don't think he has much incentive to bet the flop either because if you hate the flop, like say you had QQ, he can probably take it later.
I think in this specific hand a CR turn is pretty good. Seems like he will float and try to take it too much. I also just hate these spots where there are obvious draws and we are going to get to the river with like 1/2 pot behind.
I should add that when he called the 3! preflop, he showed his cards to the guy next to him and said "watch this" rather gleefully - considering what he was showing down, I don't know if it narrows what he can have here, but assuming it's not something super strong
100% betting to charge draws. Not counting on him to take the bait here.
Iād bet half pot or so praying for a call and jamming the river no matter what card comes out
As you say, stack sizes are a little awkward. Hand is played fine so far. Options seem to be (1) jam turn (reasonable with two flush draws); (2) bet something which allows a reasonable river jam (half pot would seem to be the sweet spot here, leaving another half pot bet on the river); or (3) check-jam.
His range after the flop call would seem to be strong hands (AJs, maybe AJo, JJ, 77, 55, maybe some A7s/A5s); other top pair which you block (AK, AQ, maybe some ATs etc); in-the-middle pocket pairs (KK, QQ, TT-88 which now hate the turn); spade draws - which can't be AXss; complete air.
Does he float flop with complete air? Is he likely to turn underpairs into a bluff? I would be inclined not to check. Seems like there are plenty of medium-strength hands which can call a modest bet but might get away in the event of a jam, so I'd probably go for the intermediate size here - half pot or so, maybe a touch more. Probably jamming spade rivers (and obviously anything else)
Results: I ended up checking turn, Villain bet $60, I jammed, Villain tanked for about 2-3 minutes before calling
River was 7♦, I tabled my hand and was good
After Villain eventually busted, I asked the guy next to him what Villain showed him - he said "KQo, I can't believe he called you"
Results: I ended up checking turn, Villain bet $60, I jammed, Villain tanked for about 2-3 minutes before calling
River was 7♦, I tabled my hand and was good
After Villain eventually busted, I asked the guy next to him what Villain showed him - he said "KQo, I can't believe he called you"
Irrespective of the result, I wonder if you still think x/raising turn was the best play? I can understand why you did check turn based on the 1) Villain profile and 2) blocking top pair. But obviously the wet and dynamic board texture suggests he's calling often enough with draws, even though sizing a turn bet (e.g. 50%) is kind of tricky given effective stacks. Personally I'd prefer a x on the flop and then a x/r on the turn against a stuck and stabby opponent, even though you hold the A ♠.
Irrespective of the result, I wonder if you still think x/raising turn was the best play? I can understand why you did check turn based on the 1) Villain profile and 2) blocking top pair. But obviously the wet and dynamic board texture suggests he's calling often enough with draws, even though sizing a turn bet (e.g. 50%) is kind of tricky given effective stacks. Personally I'd
Eh I like my line here better if I had JJ/AJs (since I'm not 3! 55/77 in this spot against this kind of Villain)
Exploitatively, I like the idea of x flop here, but it seemed more believable in the moment to range bet flop and x turn, even though check-jamming seems super-obvious in retrospect. I wonder if betting 2/3, pot, or slightly overbetting turn makes more sense in hindsight here
The other knock against checking flop here is since he's playing so much junk, I don't love the idea of giving him a possible free card when he could have every possible FD/SD/Combo draw in his range and put myself in an annoying spot OOP on some dicey turn cards that either hugely favor his range and/or kill action
Eh I like my line here better if I had JJ/AJs (since I'm not 3! 55/77 in this spot against this kind of Villain)Exploitatively, I like the idea of x flop here, but it seemed more believable in the moment to range bet flop and x turn, even though check-jamming seems super-obvious in retrospect. I wonder if betting 2/3, pot, or slightly overbetting turn makes more sense in hindsi
He’s betting every fd or gutter when you check flop. I don’t think it matters if you check flop or turn but vs this guy I’d check once and let him blast off.
Turn spot is interesting after he bets. Not sure if call or jam is better. Given what happened I guess shove is good but you probably stack him anyways if you check call turn and check river.
