Pulling the trigger

I appreciate this very much and you are certainly on target. If I think there are no better hands at the moment, then I am betting for value & hoping they fold. So if I’m near certain (I read people well) that they will fold their weak pair, weak draw to an overbet, then I think it’s free money.

I guess there are holes in my thinking
I believe to most sizes they will call & yes they are getting a bad price, but now I’m not certain to win anymore. Hey, that’s my thinking always subject to change with new information. Thanks

But why do you want the weak draw / weak top pair to fold.
Yes you can overbet and they will fold and you win a small pot but thats not how you win the most money. The goal isnt to win small pots, the goal is to win big.

I guess it’s always been about consistency with me kknob. If I can win a decent pot with no variance, why risk a big loss.

I notice that most of the people walking out with a huge win have played bad and got lucky. I’m fine with taking a few hundred home and my $43 hourly at 1/3

GRUNCH:

As a general rule, I tend not to reply to threads that are hypothetical scenarios, or ask questions like "what's our range here", when it's so situation-dependent.

That said...

The turn 2 changes the nuts. And depending on the pre-flop and flop action, and configuration, might conceivably give someone a set or 2P. So, without knowing more, it's hard to answer how often we'll be value-owning ourselves.

Assuming we raised pre, and c-bet the flop, I don't think I'd over-bet jam the turn, precisely because the 2 changes the nuts, and I'm expecting our flop c-bet to get called by 54s, A4cc, some A4ss, and some slow-played sets, and occasionally some odd-ball 2P no one should have but somehow does, like LOL-J6 or 63.

If it was heads up, and V is just a total whale, MAYBE an over-bet jam can get called by worse, because they can't fold 77-TT, but if he has 77-TT, we can probably just go bet-bet-bet and get all the money in over three streets, rather than giving him an escape hatch by over-bet jamming the turn.

I'd rather make this play as a semi-bluff, with a hand like A6cc, 65cc, or 64cc - some combo that is a reasonably good 2nd pair with a ton of outs to make a more nutted hand, but likely won't win at showdown when V has a hand like 77-TT.

That logic is important - if we'd bluff to try to fold 77-TT, then we can't also over-bet jam for value and expect those hands to call. They can't fold 77-TT when we're bluffing AND call when we're value-betting.

NON GRUNCH - having scrolled down as far as Venice's post, he nails it better than I did. You jam with AJ here, expect to fold out worse and get called by better.

Honestly, poker doesn't need fancy plays. As the PFR and IP, we can range c-bet the flop for 1/3 pot or less, check back TPTK on the draw-completing turn, and either fold river when someone leads into us for more than 2/3 pot, and call when they stab for around 1/2 pot.

Yes, it really can be that simple.

When they call your raise pre, and then they both check-call the flop, it's a safe assumption TPTK may not be good on this turn that completes the most obvious draw.

Look at it this way - we could have 54s here, and be nutted. We'd PRAY they have 2P+ on the turn. We'd target 2P+ for value.

The WORST hand we'd expect an opponent to have here would be some trashy JX combo, if they're remotely competent, maybe occasionally 76 that's drawing very slim, and sometimes 65 or 64 that's hanging on, praying we check it back so they can realize.

The frequency of TPTK being the best hand at showdown drops off rapidly on each street when there are multiple opponents in the hand. By the river, I don't think I'd bet AJ for value unless maybe the river is another J or an A.

If it's heads up, sure, go ahead and play TPTK for max value. Multi-way, pump the brakes, Sally.

^ Docvail, I understand why you "Grunch" to save on time, and, perhaps, for the sake of objectivity, but it's a little disrespectful to others on this forum. You're effectively not listening to your peers and therefore not allowing community debate to take it's natural course.

Disagree. I respect my peers enough to form my own thoughts before reading theirs, possibly tainting my response to look like I know better than everyone else.

I deliberately try to avoid reading past the first post before posting a reply, in order to keep myself intellectually honest.

FWIW, 98% of my first responses to a thread are also grunches for similar reasons as Doc. Talking out each street unbiased from anyone else's thoughts helps my poker memory muscle off the table.

GzeroissueswithgrunchingG

Ok then, fair enough. Your posts are insightful, as a rule, but you might avoid some repetition if you browse/skim through previous posts (not saying my posts are perfect, btw). As we say in oz, "no worries, mate."