1/2: AKs facing cold 4b EP vs MP
$660 eff
UTG straddle $10
UTG1 opens to $25, I’m UTG2 and 3-bet to $85 with A♠K♠. Folds to MP (unknown) who cold 4-bets to $200. Folds back to me.
So now I’m sitting there out of position with AKs, facing a cold 4-bet from MP, and it’s $115 more to call with $575 behind. Pot’s $340 and SPR would be around 1.2 if I call.
Folding AKs feels nitty but it’s a 4b at 1/2. Calling OOP vs. a strong range sucks. But jamming also feels dicey vs a tight player pool that usually only 4-bets QQ+/AK. I’d basically be flipping, dominated, or dead.
That said, maybe I’m overthinking it and this is just a fist-pump jam with AKs and 33% of my stack already in?
What’s your move here and why?
7 Replies
I don’t really see an advantage to calling here, so I think you either 5Bet Jam or Fold. The 4Bet indicates that you will be playing for stacks, so you might as well be the one shoving if you’re going to play.
You say ‘unknown’ but I would likely have some kind of read as to whether he could 4Bet light. Most players at this level are not bluffing.
If he’s betting value, the best you can hope for is a flip as I don’t think he’s 4Betting AQ. You could very well be up against the same hand & it sucks not getting your money back, but I think it’s a tight fold.
Others may disagree but I’m pretty conservative and being bluffed bothers me less than losing my stack. I would consider it info gathering on an unknown player and try to get him to show his hand.
Personally, I feel that I have too big an edge to risk my stack in a spot where I don’t know where I’m at. I don’t have a problem folding a big hand and waiting for a better spot. QQ would be a tougher decision, but AK is not a made hand and would be easy for me to let go.
I try to look at how the hand will play out. Also looking at this session as part of the big picture and 600+ loss at this level is hard to recoup. Curious to how it played out.
I don’t really see an advantage to calling here, so I think you either 5Bet Jam or Fold. The 4Bet indicates that you will be playing for stacks, so you might as well be the one shoving if you’re going to play.You say ‘unknown’ but I would likely have some kind of read as to whether he could 4Bet light. Most players at this level are not bluffing. If he’s betting value, the best
I folded. While leaving, he said he had KK. Also - I think QQ is an easier fold than AKs because he’s never 4b JJ so it’s just KK+ when we have QQ.
Against an unknown live player I'm always folding AK to a 4bet. Maybe this is a luxury you can't afford on higher stakes anymore, but at 1/2 I'd be pretty shocked if folding is not the best play. If you have even just a little information on the player that could change quickly, like even just seeing him 4bet twice before in a 2 hour session might tip the decision. But here presumably he hasn't 4bet any hand before.
I don't like calling because if the 4bet range is just AA+KK, then you don't know if you're good after hitting the Flop.
It might depend a bit on reads -- there are some players in my pool who are only ever re-raising with the nuts -- but against an unknown, who is finding the 2.35x cold 4b size, I would jam here.
Sure, it's "a 4b at 1/2" but there is a $10 straddle on, so you only have 66 blinds. There's also almost $40 worth of dead money in there.
It might depend a bit on reads -- there are some players in my pool who are only ever re-raising with the nuts -- but against an unknown, who is finding the 2.35x cold 4b size, I would jam here.
Sure, it's "a 4b at 1/2" but there is a $10 straddle on, so you only have 66 blinds. There's also almost $40 worth of dead money in there.
Agree with this. On paper, you should 5bet jam here because you have a premium hand and you are short-stacked relative to the straddle. But it helps to know who you are playing against here.
Do you think this player has any 4bet/folds? Is he cold 4betting QQ and AKo? Does he fold either of those hands to a jam? Does he ever get "out of line" with JJ or AQs?
If he never has 4bet/folds, you can just treat the cold 4bet as if it were a jam when you calculate the equity you need in this spot. If V had 4bet jammed for $660, you would be calling $575 to win a final pot of about $1355, so you would need 42.4% equity against V's range to profitably call. Against a range of QQ+ AK, AKs has 41.9% equity. So it's an extremely close spot against that range. If he has JJ, it's a winning call. If you have fold equity, it's a winning call. At the same time though, if he is coldcalling (or folding) QQ and AKo instead of 4betting, stacking off with AKs here would be a torch.
In theory 66 straddles deep this is an easy all in. In reality most 1-2 players aren’t putting in a big 4b without a monster so just exploit the population tendencies and fold.
Grunch:
There's no size you can 5B that isn't a jam, so the options are fold, call and see a flop with 1 SPR, or jam.
Since there's almost no chance we'll be able to get stacks in against a worse hand post-flop, I really don't like flatting from OOP. The best case scenario is flopping a huge draw that allows us to check-jam, which still requires us to actually make our hand when he inevitably calls, which he's almost always going to do with his big PP's, whereas he's likely to just bet-fold all his junk. It's kind of a disaster if the flop goes check-check and we're just lost on the turn.
I think from OOP it's fine to jam here.
Folding is also fine as a low stakes exploit, if we're reasonably confident that MP has a tight 4B range that isn't folding to a jam, and we don't feel like flipping for stacks as a slight underdog (at best) against his likely 4B-call range.
If MP is just a complete unknown, folding is clearly the lower variance route, and preserves our stack while we gather more intel on him.
So, with no other info, I probably fold. Occasionally I make an eff-this jam and usually regret it when he snaps and holds.
