2/5 - Flopped 2 Pair

hmm I dont think I can fold turn for a less than half pot sized bet..
k9/j9 doesnt seem that likely to me as us and the board blocks it pretty well , more likely diamonds or ak
kind of a rough spot, would just call and see what happens on the river

I agree I would not like jamming the flop for the same reasons as you

He could be playing this way with AK and many different draws, and even some random air if he’s tilting after winning a big pot. This is way too strong a hand to fold and if the draws brick out I’m calling an all in every time on the river

Pre: YYMV but I'm not interested in flatting the bottom of my range here in LP preflop against a UTG open after 30 minutes with V. We
are vulnerable to squeezes behind us, as doubtless others are watching the same drama with young V. So I'm folding and waiting for a better spot against V. But here we are in an interesting spot. Thanks for posting!

Flop: H has more QTs than V and likely more 99. We block his sets. If we're raising here, I think it should be bigger with the BTN still to act.
V's min-clicks are very strong, agreed.

So this is the decision point. Either V is FOS or he has coolered H. I think the flop is jam or fold. What turn does H want to see here. Diamond turn is terrible and so is A and T. I like jamming as H has capped range and V could be attacking with all kinds of stuff. Yes we fold out his air but occasionally he will call at the wrong price with NFDs and AK.

AP turn: We have more 9x than V and he should x here. If you are folding here getting almost 4-1 I think you are too mubsy.

I agree with almost all of this, but on KJ99 facing a flop 3bet and turn barrel, the monsters aren't under the bed, they're having a party on the kitchen table.

Yes preflop is still a fold, I know you want to get involved with this action player but there will be better spots and 30 minutes isn't enough time to conclude that he isn't at least somewhat positionally aware so the UTG open still deserves a little respect. KJo really is weak, I could (just about) get behind a call if you were button or BB but this is still a fold.

Flop raise is good but make it bigger, you want to set up stacks. 3bet is concerning but you still beat some value and there are plenty of semibluffs. You have top two against a loose player, I'm not folding here.

Can you remember if the 9 on the board was a diamond ie could UTG have 9Xdd? Either way the turn barrel on a paired board really does show a lot of strength and now you don't beat value any more (unless you think this guy goes crazy with AK (or KQ/KT I suppose), but you would probably have seen that by now, would really be pretty special). The immediate odds to boat up give you a price discount and odds are tempting but even so, with the monsters jiggling their backsides in your face I don't hate a fold here.

Fold pre

Grunch:

PRE - If V has been sun-running, I'd think that's a reason to fold, not call.

The reasoning is he's less likely to slow down post-flop, and even if he does, we'll either be value betting thin or bluffing with little to no equity against his continuing range.

FLOP - Okay, forget what I just said. Obviously call pre knowing you'll flop top 2P, Luckbox.

Ordinarily I'd say your raise is pretty standard, but here again, against a sun-running V, I tend to be a little more leery, and wonder how I'm going to get coolered. I think I'd prefer to flat call and bet if he slows down and checks the turn.

As played, that min-click is a little unnerving, but obviously we can't fold, so calling seems like the standard play.

That said, since we have no idea what he's repping, and this could get expensive, I wonder if we can click it back, and just fold if he comes back over the top, or check back the turn if he calls.

My thinking is that if we raise and then just flat call the min-click, we don't know where we're at, or where he's at, and things are only going to get harder to figure out on the turn and river. If we 4B here, yeah, that's weird with top 2P, but it's pretty hard for him to click it back without the nuts, and we can possibly avoid a disastrous oucome.

TURN - Easy for me to armchair quarterback this one and say this is why we might have clicked it back, if we're just going to over-fold on the turn. I don't know if you believe me or if it helps to say I typed the above before reading the turn action.

Not looking to make you feel worse. I do think you mis-played it on the flop. Flatting allows us to see the turn and gather more info with a higher SPR. Clicking it back takes back the betting initiative and defines his hand a bit more.

I'm not going to lie and say I know what to do on the turn, as played. My gut says we beat nothing and lose to everything but something being wildly over-played. It wouldn't shock me if he had 99 or complete air, when the kid is sun-running, because that's what sun-running looks like.

If it helps to think about the flop - consider your range when you just flat pre. We're not going to have KK, and probably not JJ. If we have a tight image, we may not have QT or J9. We can't really rep ALL the strong hands here. Our range is kind of merged - we can have the nuts, some thin value, and some bluffs.

Compare that to V's range. If he's feeling it, he may open UTG with QTs or even QTo, and if he's got QT, maybe he also has J9. He can obviously have all the sets and top 2P, as well as AA.

When you raise flop, you're saying you have QT at best, and maybe top 2P or bottom set. That turn 9 makes it much harder for us to have 99, and QT and KJ just shriveled up in value against his range.

Hat's off to the kid if he didn't have it, and was just putting all the above together to make you fold the best hand.

I don't like the flop raise at all with top 2 pair on a high connected 2-flush flop. Too many hands have you crushed. Just call down.

If I was going to play KJo, I would 3bet to 60. Now, button likely folds and if villain 4bets, I fold, losing no more money. When he calls, I’m betting again with this flop and not slowing down.

But even as played, did you not consider AK - everything you wrote screamed AK at me. He hit top two on the turn, but you have a bigger top two. You see the monsters, I see the value.

So, yes I’m getting the money in.