PAHWM - AA facing flop x/r from ABC tag-fish

I'm fine with preflop.

My rule in these spots on the flop is simple. If I feel comfortable bet/folding, then I'm fine with doing that. If I wouldn't be comfortable with folding to a check/raise, then I just check behind (which is also fine in general). Looks like we decided to cbet against an unimaginative opponent who never bluffs / has almost no semi-bluffs on a non-drawy board / is used to playing short and yet now is deep and likely doesn't want to give his stack away against our perceived AK. So I fold the flop. If we bet like super small and got check/raised "to see where I'm at" super small, I might change my mind and see what happens on the turn.

ETA: I'm more with the old skool guys than the new skoolers on the flop.

ETA#2: Kinda weird action and run out. With the BBJ 99 is often ruled out with the turn bet (unless his chips were being moved forward before the turn sunk in). Although do have to realize that AA/KK (admittedly few combos) are still easily in play preflop. Still, this mostly just is what it is from an unimaginative guy who is used to playing shortstacked and the last thing he wants to do is give away his large stack; AK is rarely overplayed like this from these types of players, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

its an obvious call because i very often see people bet river small with the nuts b/c they want to get paid, but you cant fold for that price.

In my experience this sizing on the river is almost never better than top pair. I do think this player type might find a fold if you raise though, so I'm fine with calling.

Flop is a tough spot but unless you have tons of experience with this guy and know he only raises with 2p+, I agree with your decision to call. Agree with others' advice to also call turn.

I'm not going to lie and say I was "comfortable", but I did think the 9 was a good card for me, in that it reduces the number of combos of K9 and 99 V could have. I don't remember the suits, but I remember thinking that I didn't think he'd call pre with K9o, so there was only 1 or 2 combos of K9s.

I called turn because I was giving him all the combos of AK on the flop, and only slivers of 2P or sets. When the 9 comes out, he still has all the combos of AK, but fewer combos of 99 and K9, so I have to think my equity has gone up.

Obviously we have to think about whether or not he continues to barrel with AK after I call flop, but we also need to think about if he slows down with boats when the BDFD appears, in case I might have picked up the flush draw. I could be, since I have the ace of that suit in my hand, and he doesn't have it in his.

Plus, there's always the possibility that my read was wrong, and he's defending the BB with K7, which just got counterfeited.

In game, I was wondering what the theoretically correct play would be here. I definitely didn't think I could ever fold to this sizing, even though it looks so milky and value-heavy when he goes bet-bet-bet for a small size on turn and river.

But I also didn't think he'd take this size with a boat if I called flop and turn, unless he had 77 and was worried about me having KK. At the same time, his bet sort of looked like "I got here how I got here and now I don't know what to do" sizing, like he loved his hand on the flop, but liked it less now that I called flop and turn.

I also wasn't sure if he'd call a jam with worse, but the only worse hands I could give him that would play this way would be AK and K7, and while K7 might find a rage-fold, I didn't think he'd be able to fold AK to a jam for another $200, after he played it this way, and he'd be getting almost 4:1 on a call.

My thinking was that if he's bad enough to do this with K7 after the board pairs, he's bad enough to call a jam with AK, not wanting to fold if I was just trying to bluff him off of a chop, if I have AK, which is more likely than me having KK.

I didn't classify V as loose-passive. I said he was more TAG-fish. He played pretty tight pre, and pretty straight-forward if somewhat trappy from OOP post.

Since he was somewhat trappy, I didn't think he'd x/r the flop with a set on such a dry board. Sure, maybe he does, but I thought he'd give me a little more rope before springing the trap.

Since he just flatted pre from the BB in a multiway pot with AJ in that prior hand, I wouldn't necessarily expect him to 3B pre with 99, and almost certainly not 77. However, I would expect him to 3B KK. I think he mostly folds K9, K7, and 97 pre, but of course I couldn't be certain about how wide he'd defend his BB. Maybe some of those hands get played at some frequency.

I was definitely thinking he was the type to flat from the blinds with AK, preferring to see a flop before bloating the pot, when he'll be OOP. And I think players who do that tend to fast-play when they make TPTK, because they're only losing to aces or flopped sets, and they're worried about their opponents somehow out-drawing them if they slow-play.

Yes, all of this. I think when someone opts to flat in the blinds with AK or KQ, they tend to fast-play post when they make TPTK, and sometimes even TPGK.

I also think V's line here is indicative of someone who believes their hand is best on the flop, but becomes less sure when I call the flop x/r and call the turn. I could have AA, KK, 99, and 77 here, if he thinks I play the way he does, and if he thinks I'm a loose cannon, then I could have K9 and 97.

That 1/3 pot river sizing isn't the absurdly small sizing someone would use hoping to induce a raise, nor is it the 2/3 pot or more sizing rec-fish use when they have the nuts. It's a weird spot for him to go polar and bet big if he's got a boat and he's hoping I'll call with QQ or JJ.

So it looks like he's either got a boat and is hoping I'll call with JJ+ that just can't find a fold, or he's got AK and is hoping I just flat call rather than jam.

Ultimately, I decided to jam for the remaining $200. Part of decision came from watching him as I was tanking, and thinking he didn't look overly comfortable.

V didn't snap call. He tanked for about half a minute, then flicked in the call. Of course, my hand was good.

V shook his head and showed AK before he mucked.

Never in a million years would I fold that flop. I play it the same. NH.

i am convinced 3/4 of the forum doesnt actually play poker

This...

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Enjoyed this discussion
In my simplistic view, I call the flop xr with the thought I might be behind. But when the other nine shows, I think I’m ahead of all the 2pairs I was worried about. The quick turn bet makes me think he’s got a king for sure & thinks he’s in the driver’s seat.

It’s kinda dreamy when you have KK and the flop comes Q high. You lock in that AQ & take him to value town. But this was not as obvious because of villain’s actions. I like the way this was played. You got more value than me as I think I would have wimped out & called the river.

I understand why you and others would flat call the river. I considered just calling. It's the lower variance option, so I don't think we can hate on it.

I certainly wasn't 100% positive I had the best hand when I jammed. I was maybe 70% certain, give or take, and felt comfortable with the $200 cost of being wrong. My style of play is max value / max variance.

What I find interesting about the hand is thinking about it from V's perspective. I could be super-nutted here, and play it the same way from IP when he starts bloating the pot with the flop x/r. When I jam the river for another $200 after calling flop and turn, what are my bluffs?

The only bluff I can think of that isn't suicidal would be AK trying to push him off a chop. The worst hands I think I'd ever jam here would be AA and AK. I don't think AK folds getting almost 4:1, which is part of why I think we CAN jam AA and expect AK to call.

As for all my reasoning - I could have been wrong. He could have had 99 or 77 and I'd have been cooked. I'm not sure how often he shows up with K9 or 97, but I don't think it's very often, simply because of how tight I thought he'd be defending the BB, when I saw he just flat called with AJ in that prior hand, which was multi-way.

I thought it was slightly more likely he'd slow-play sets and 2P on this flop texture, by just check-calling, looking to make his move on wet turns, and thought this line was more consistent with AK that didn't raise pre, preferring to see a flop before deciding he's just going with his hand.

From a 500 foot view, we put in 150bb in a single raised HU pot with one pear, with lol 5 bets going in postflop. In general, I think we could probably agree that this shouldn't be our goal most of the time? Sure, we clearly played our hand far superior to how our opponent played their hand (at least in this case), and we dragged a massive pot (although there's always a winner in a non-chopped pot), but in spite of all this I'm not convinced we played the hand so well.

GbutIclearlyneveractuallyplaypoker,sothere'sthatG

It's not my goal most of the time. It's situation dependent. I thought this situation was worth discussing due to the read, the flop texture, the bet sizing, and the board-pairing turn.

Given all the available info I like my line here, regardless of the result. Change the variables, I'd play it differently.

I’m not one to be “that guy” nitpicking technicalities but hero has two pair in this hand. More than that, he has the nut two pair on a board where it is difficult for his opponent to have a better hand because of the board pair. Villain can’t even have naked trips here because of the flop checkraise so all of his hands that beat AA are full houses. I don’t think stacks go in on the river if the board isn’t paired so it makes a big difference.

Oh yeah, fully agree there are things in this hand that might not line up with the "general" case. Still, *5* bets went in postflop. That's a lot of bets.

Ggladitworkedouttho?G

hilarious thread

i think his play is ok except for river sizing. his hand seems fine to x/r vs a co open, even more so vs someone who is admittedly cbetting 100%. turn and river are fine for him to continue betting on and otr ip should end up relatively indifferent with kx id guess if he jams.

would like to reiterate my first sentence in this thread, that if you b/f or suggest b/f the flop you have literally no chance to win at poker.

think this mostly shows most don't really want to discuss strategy or have much of a decision process for evaluating hands. as per usual, thread was posted for teaching / validation purposes, no one has learned anything, you got the guys who were confidently wrong posting essays about why they weren't actually wrong, and we will go on and do the same things in the next thread!

Lol, ORLY?

I haven't seen V's or G's giraffes (or anyone else's for that matter since I'm kinda like the only one who here who actually consistently posts them), but I guess I'm just a sunrunning bet/folder?

Gyoumightwanttotakethehyberboledownanotch,imoG

i dont understand. its a live poker graph. you can just enter in numbers to an app lol

i will bet you whatever you want within reason that you can't beat small stakes on anything tracked

And... welcome to my Ignore List.

Gyikes@stateofforum,imoG

Sub, I'm going to make this warning public, as there are others who need to see it too. You need to reread the posting rules. Bottom line: no calling other posters fish.

i dont think i did that

Calling people losing players is a specific example of what not to do in the rules.

Edit: That example is in the old version of the rules before the forum merge. My apologies. Nonetheless, you may disagree with the strat, but you can't say "anyone who disagrees with me can't win at poker.". Just not acceptable.

im not allowed to ask him to bet on winrates when he unprompted starts talking about how much he wins and his graphs?

edit: oh. the aces thing. the point of my comment is its a massive ev blunder at equilibrium (like you will never see anything bigger than this otf in srp unless you stack off inappropriately) and conceptual error to b/f the top 90 percentile of your range ip when you have equity vs anything. idc if people win or not, my point was its a whale level error. i will be less personal in future replies i guess