1/3NL - Flopped Top 2pr: Line Check, Bet Sizing?
1/3NL, SB Villain is effective stack at $210
SB is very loose, generally passive, but will donk-lead at times (not all the time) into PFR if he hits the board (could be pairs or draws) or perceives his hand might be best. Have seen him get aggressive with draws (betting or raising).
BB (relevant only for flop play): Very standard OMC type, typical PF calling range, will only get aggressive with nutted hands, can/will slowplay OOP.
Hero is MAWG, should be perceived as TAG, maybe even LAG as I have had a large # of good starting hands in the ~1h that the table has been going. Most did not go to showdown.
Pre: Folds to Hero in HJ with JcTc, Raise to $15, SB & BB call.
Flop ($40): Js Ts 4h
SB, BB check, Hero bets $40, SB calls, BB folds.
I did debate betting smaller (could define their ranges better, as SB/BB both could/would flat JJ/TT/44 pre), but there are a TON of 1-pr and drawing hands that these two have in their range that will call pretty much any size bet...so I decided to just bet pot. Thoughts?
Turn ($120): Kd
SB checks, Hero bets $85, SB goes all-in for $155, Hero?
In-game, I came up with this ~2/3-pot bet size mainly based on what I thought his QJ, QT, Ksxs, T9, FD, Str8 draw hands would still call (value betting). But thinking more, I'm not sure I like it. He's still uncapped and there is a decent part of his range that I'm now behind to with blah equity. There are some draws that he could check/shove here though...
2 Replies
I'm snap-calling. You have to call 70 to win 430 if I'm counting right? So you need about 16% equity.
Conceivably he may not have much of a calling range with 70 behind so may play a hand like KQ this way, or maybe even AK if he is as passive preflop as you say. Then there are the Ax of spade hands that pick up a gutshot that may just jam based on your reads.
Even against the straights you have about 9% equity, so there don't need to be many worse hands here to be able to call.
So if there's even a small chance he has a bluff here, or something worse for value, I think these pot odds just make it a mandatory call, even if you're in bad shape most of the time.
I limp in at the best of times in the HJ per my style. But at just 70bb effective stacks against at least one player, and at a typical LLSNL table where we'll expect multiway, a 5x raise with J high is kinda meh, at least imo (I'll be outvoted).
SPR is ~4 (again, not really the SPR we are looking for with J high, imo), but we've luck outed into top two pair on a drawy board. Think I would lean to a slight overbet on the flop to setup a turn shove, so like $50. A $40 bet leaves $155 back with a pot of $125, so a little awkward. Also, we're overthinking with stuff like "defining their ranges better"; we have top two on a drawy baord at SPR of 4, we should really just be attempting to get the rest of the chips in ASAP (by the turn, imo).
Again, we're overthinking on the turn. We hardly have any chips left in a pot we were committed in. Yeah, the turn isn't the greatest card since some two pair moved ahead (but this is more a function of bloating the pot preflop with the worst of it), but otherwise we're still ahead of some hands / draws in a commitment spot.
Gdon'toverthinkwithgoodhandsatsmallSPRs,imoG
