Line Check, Double Check Raise Flop and Turn

Stack sizes? Fold pre.

why would you check the river?

in a home game i dont think being a nit is a good idea if you want to be invited back

There is a difference between not being nitty, and making calls that are almost definitely -EV. The small blind is not where you splash around.

Thought process was that I do not think I am being called by worse enough to make it profitable, and I do not think I get better to fold ever if I shove, and if I make it a small bet I likely cannot fold to a shove and I am disincentivizing bluffs to jam.

If I get jammed on, I likely randomize or tank for several minutes. Smaller bets I flat call.

Purely EV oriented? Yeah, especially if it’s GTO ranges.

The game has been looser for the last hour, so the EV loss versus GTO is mitigated, and any theoretical loss is a price I’m willing to pay for the joy of playing a hand against two very strong opponents at a low stakes game. I’m a winning player, so I’m not concerned on this money not coming back in other venues.

I fold this hand preflop 3 ways OOP vs. 2 players who I believe are smarter than I am.

It feels to me like villain should only bet river with a better flush given how much aggression you've shown thus far. He can't really expect to bluff you off a flush with the naked A♥ given stack sizes. He can't go for value with a weaker flush or a non-flush. Conversely he may have to take a deep breath and call with a weaker hand if you jam now. I would probably just ship the river rather than let him decide to value you when he has you beat and save his money by taking decent equity to showdown.

Flop ($10): Ad3h2h

Hero loves the flop, feels like he has a strong nut advantage (shared slightly with the button, but Hero suspects he has more 54, even suited)

Huh? Calling with 54s would be nearly as bad as calling with J8s from the SB.

P.S. You flopped a J-high flush draw on A-high flop where the A isn't even part of the flush draw. Your hand is more like the goofy, ginger stepbrother.

These guys are definitely smarter than me, especially in math (duh), but I have played a ton of poker and don't feel completely out of my element in this game. This is not a line that I would take against players who have been putting me in the blender.

I appreciate your insight on the river decision. I do want to hone in on some line in particular:

I felt pretty strongly that I was targeting far too thin with a jam in this spot. Does he have sets? Yeah, he can have 33 and 22 as played, for 6 combos. I could see some weaker flushes, but the 9h is not a great flush-completing turn as played, not as disastrous as the 6h (eliminating 76h, 65h, and maybe a frisky 64h or meme-y 96h), but once he calls the second check range, I think it narrows his range immensely to sets, flushes, hands with the Ah, and maybe, MAYBE, 3 combos of non-flush 54s. As mentioned, I've shown a ton of aggression, and smart players can fold baby flushes and sets to a lot of aggression, and I struggle to see the hero calls that I take to value town. What hands are you envisioning in this deep-breath-and-call bucket?

Also, any thoughts on the flop and, particularly, the turn?

misread it thought we were BB. sb yes this should be a fold, home game or not.

I have to report that I'm a touch disappointed with a lot of the analysis. Feels like autopilot comments without really leaving any room for discussions.

I mentioned this in other replies, but the core question doesn't involve the flop decision. Not to mention, 200 BBs, no rake, and the seven-deuce bounty game being on makes a LJ 3x, a BU C, and J8s in the BB a Call100. As noted, this is not the situation, but it's hard for me to take analysis at its face when it's like this hand is being plugged into default settings on a solver and then a flippant comment is typed up reporting what that solve says. Kills any chance for discussion.

I played with many math PhDs from Ivy equivalents, and they were all bad players. The math in poker is relatively simple algebra and statistics. You don’t need a PhD, let alone college. The skill is more in reading players and making appropriate exploits. That takes years of practice, and given the low stakes home game, I doubt these PhDs have the chops. It’s a huge mistake to assume that, just because a V is highly educated, he is a good player. Ivy Leaguers underestimate the skill of working-class players.

Fold pre. As others pointed out, flop isn’t great because V has many AhXh, and you sometimes get stacked by a better flush. That said, V will probably call his AX on the turn and river, so I would bet 35 on the river. If V pushes all in, you can consider folding.

This is fair. I occasionally play a home game where every single person at the table is more intelligent than me, but I'm better at poker because I spend more time on it.

This is basically assuming that your play is good though. If it makes you feel better:

- Your point about a LJ open B call and BB defend isn’t relevant, SB doesn’t really play similarly to BB.

- J8s doesn’t make strong hands anywhere near often enough to call profitably just off when it makes the winning hand. So it has to be able to bluff a ton. Which means you expect opponents to play too wide pre and then overfold to bluffs post. And if that’s the case you don’t need to make this post you know what to do.

- The assumption of any nut advantage on the flop is almost definitely incorrect. You have 20 combos of 33 22 A3s A2s 54s and if you have those combos you probably have at least 134 combos, probably more. 15% of your range being 2pair plus and the rest of it being underpairs or junk for the most part is not going to be the nut advantage.

- This is exemplified beautifully in this exact spot. You’re going to have wayyyyyy more bluff candidates than you can use. You’re either going to over bluff or overfold.

- The 72 game being on doesn’t incentivize you raise more it incentivizes you to bluff catch. Why would we want to raise a hand that’s ahead of their 16 extra combos of bluffs when their 16 extra combos of bluffs will fold?

- Raising J high flush draws multiway is generally not a thing at a high frequency. Because you’re going to get called by all the better flush draws and coolered when you get there.

- When you check raise and get called, and then they bet again, on a flush completing turn, what worse hand is possibly calling?

- double check raising to potentially fold a flush on the river is just objectively bad in basically all situations.

I don’t think you made a single good decision in the hand, I think you need to study the topics you mention much more deeply.

Appreciate this start, I'll come back to this.

Thank you for reiterating the point I already made.

This is exactly what I would expect in a game that is balanced. Doesn't mean that I wouldn't like to have a discussion about the hand.

This is my favorite part of the post.

Another incredible quote. There is wayyyyyy more places on earth than I can visit too, why bother posting in travel boards in that case? You're also just describing non-GTO play, which the initial post is forthright in acknowledging that this isn't on the from the jump.

I'll be right back, I'm googling if 72 is ahead of J8s on A32ss on the flop. Unless you're somehow another person who is so used to the conditions of the games that they play that they are incapable of escaping their thought prison and reading the beginnings of hand histories. It's legit hard to tell.

Great, are they Call100's or high frequency calls? I'll hang up and take my answer off the air.

God I love not including the showdown. Moments like this are gold.

Basically all or all? You love speaking with the power of absolutes, but you have identified that you should hedge against absolutes for when you're wrong.

ANYWAYS, I'll circle back now:

Poker, and life is a game of understanding your biases, so you can learn from them.

I posted this hand history not because I think it's good, but because I think I made a poor decision and was hoping for some insight from somebody who might understand the spot well.

You entire post is just attribution. From start to finish, you attribute, over and over again. Which brings us to...

I don't think you made a single good point in your post. I think you need to study the topics mentioned much more deeply.

Conclusion:

Villain verbalizes a desire to bluff, but announces a set and checks back. Hero rolls it over and it's good.

I'd explain to you the insights I learned from posting this hand (clearly elsewhere), but, since it's my turn to attribute, you clearly only made this post because you wanted to make yourself feel smart and you didn't actually describe anything useful. Returning to this...

He three-bets some of his 54s pre with 3x opens, chip ev, and seven-deuce, I do not.

He has range advantage, I have nut advantage on the flop. You are described nuts advantage (poorly, I might add).

Thank you for the perfect cap to this thread, really showcased the post you replied to was necessary. Peace.

sounds like OP isnt interested in learning, just bragging. your loss.

your play probably wins the minimum vs. villains range. when you check turn, hes not betting any worse hands except weaker flushes (which he has very few of), sets (which he had) and MAYBE two pair (most people will not bet two pair here). given that he had a set you left a lot on the table by checking the river. when you CR the flop you fold out all of his bluffs so he has nothing to bluff with on the turn, either.

also nothing good happens when you CR this flop given that you block nothing except AJ, and villain will have so many Ax combos and and A2+A3 as well, and you really hate life if you get 3b. id rather CR air than a flush draw in this spot because if i get called or 3b when i have air its cheap to give up.

if you think he has random air a lot you can still steal the pot when you c/c flop because he will put you on Ax and often check the turn with his weak hands, so you can overbet bluff the river.