Maximizing IP with ATs
1/3 NLHE 8 handed
Game is blah. We've been card dead and flop dead most of the night and are a little tired, down a littl
Board is wet with 2 broadway cards and a 2-flush.
You are all concerned everyone will fold and say a draw wouldn't push. Lots of possible combo draws, which should shove here.
- Of all the wet boards, this is one of the least wet ones. It's a gutshot and a flush draw.
- The Ah on the board blocks all Vilains nut flush draws.By my count that leaves him with 10 flush draws (KQ, KJ, QJ, JT, T9, 98. 87, 76, 56, 54). More if calls with suited two gappers, less if he folds SCs pre.
- Your AT blocks a share of the strong top pairs they call with.
- Your flop shove allows preflop 3bettor to fold all the underpairs KK-JJ that might peel one. I don't think preflop 3bettor has any flush draws here.
- On the plus side, we are blocking the top two sets, but that remains true whether we call or fold.
- A call keeps bluffs in that might pick up some equity on the turn.
- The strongest part of your range are TT, 44. Then it's ATs. Let's say you mix it with your strongest flush draws (KQ, KJ. QJ, JT. T9) Vs that range a hand like AQ has 29% equity when he needs 31% equity. I cannot say with certainty how people react here. Some people don't care about pot odds and look at the big bets, others put you just on value etc. It depends on the villain.
The point is though that some fold and some call. If villain folds a part of his made hand range, you are losing value.
- Conversely, his flush range has enough equity to call the shove. Villain will not be making a mistake in doing so.
Now that I 've ran the analysis, a shove is defensible, but I think that exploitatively it's higher EV to call, even if that means that 25% of the time you play a tougher turn when the flush hits.
Shove like we would do with a combo draw.
What do you think Villain is 3-betting from the blinds, and how is ATs doing against that range?
