$1/$2 AK
Maybe super standard hand but wanted to double check.
$240 effective
AK of spades I raise in late position to $12 after 1 early pos limp. Small blind (only read is appears to be snug) and limper call (limper is loose).
Flop Kh 9c 6c. Small checks, limper bets $12, I raise to 38, Small blind makes it 80. Limper calls I call. Pot 276
Turn complete blank 2d. Small blind jams, limper folds, on me for the rest of my stack $148 (small blind and limper were about 250 effective I was smallest stack)
Talked myself into calling thinking he can have QJ QT JT and ace high flush draws sometimes. Live poker so maybe sometimes he has the same hand too. Figure I'm really only losing to 66 and 99. Although I suppose my read that he was snug wasn't so verified that I can completely discount suited two pair hands.
I've been getting absolutely killed in spots like these lately wanted to make sure I'm not making a mistake. Does he ever not have it? I talked myself into thinking it might be a combo draw but do snug live players ever 3 bet the flop with a draw...idk
14 Replies
This is close, but you're probably not quite getting the odds. Note that he had to get through two players (which is why calling flop then folding turn is OK; you might expect quite a few turn checks).
Against a value range of 99/66/K9s and a semibluff range of QJ/QT/JT/87 of clubs plus say one AXcc combo you're around 32%. Yes there could be some AK albeit one of them is a freeroll. You might occasionally see something like KQcc that doesn't know what to do. But however you fiddle about with it you do need quite a few combo draws. It makes sense for them to CR the flop this way - would you expect SB to call or fold them? - but after two calls you'd expect a lot of them to give up and check turn, so you can probably fold this, although you are getting a price and there will still be some bluffs so it's probably not a major disaster to call
Against the typical player I'm just folding to the Flop 3bet. The typical live player has 2 pair or better 100% of the time when they do this. It's even a cold 3bet, so probably just a set tbh.
I quickly fold AA to this action OTF and I feel pretty good about it. I have occasionally folded the best hand like this but not often. Like even if you're ahead it will be because you run into the absolute bottom end of someone's made hand range and the other has NFD, or they both show up with draws at the same time, something like that.
The decision point is on the flop, since once you call the c/r, I don't see how you can fold for less than a psb when the turn bricks.
Against a seemingly snug rando, who rarely is going to have worse than AK or a combo draw after the c/r, I think I'd fold the flop if I was playing my "A" game.
If you're going to continue, definitely 4b shove the flop. You're way committed if you don't fold, and better to get it in when draws are as live as possible.
However, to a x-3b from a "snug" player with no more reads, yeah he probably always has it. I agree even AA is probably a fold.
As played, he extra has-it jamming like this, so probably still a fold even given the odds? But maybe you "need" to see it through since your thesis was that SB is bluffing. At least the draws didn't make it.
fold to the 3b this is never a worse hand. i dont think ive ever seen a b/3b with a draw in my LLSNL career unless it was a super short stack all in
when you raise flop you already are announcing you like your hand and he doesnt care
LLSNL is so so so often about just massively overfolding because they only have value, combined with noticing when someone is crazy/competent enough you have to call sometimes.
It looks insane that we just bet fold almost all of our range, but it is what it is.
Eg. recent session:
I open AQ ~UTG+2 to 12 (super loose table in general, I've been card dead and missing);
Only BB calls (not the loosest at the table, but not good).
Flop: AK2r
check
I bet 10
he snap makes it 20
...he just has better 100% of the time, the only question is if I can call 10 to hit something and if I know he has K2 or even A2 then it's kind of okay (except my flop equity ignores he is going to bet turn, and assumes I can raise if a Q hits ... but against 22 I'm just dead and a Q only helps me lose more).
I shrug and fold, he shows A2 ... so I maybe made a slight mistake, but at least not a huge one (don't worry I made a couple of big mistakes when I thought they might be semi-bluffing and also lost piles).
Fold flop the 3b is very strong.
The only thing that makes sense for SB on the flop is 2P, a set, or an OESFD. Pretty straightforward fold to the check-3B.
I'm not sure why no-one has commented on the flop raise. We're IP, it's 3way, I favour a call rather than a raise with AK on K96cc. Sure we have no club and we might lose some value from draws but how often is the donk a worse K, random Tx or QT/QJ/JT that continues versus our raise?
As it turns out, SB has a hand, at worst 87cc or JTcc, so just fold to the flop 3bet.
I'm not sure why no-one has commented on the flop raise. We're IP, it's 3way, I favour a call rather than a raise with AK on K96cc. Sure we have no club and we might lose some value from draws but how often is the donk a worse K, random Tx or QT/QJ/JT that continues versus our raise?
As it turns out, SB has a hand, at worst 87cc or JTcc, so just fold to the flop 3bet.
Probably should of included this but previously he had 4 bet jammed me with KJ off (he had a shortstack but still)
Definitely an action player and I was happy to get more money in there with him. Think he was trying to set his price with the $12 lead.
I think he has a ton of garbage that will continue for $26.
Probably should of included this but previously he had 4 bet jammed me with KJ off (he had a shortstack but still)
Definitely an action player and I was happy to get more money in there with him. Think he was trying to set his price with the $12 lead.
I think he has a ton of garbage that will continue for $26.
Yeah, ok, that profile makes a difference; you definitely want to iso-raise for value v that type.
