How do you like this OOP line?

We can cbet small on flop. Or check is fine.
Turn overbet??? What?
River what are we repping???

Once we check flop, most people will put us on hands that give up, ie. middle pp, high cards etc.
Turn we overbet we repping 56, 33???? We have that range in BB open? We look a lot like bdfd now.
Do we bet this river with overpairs as well???

V's range is still mainly uncapped. Maybe he has some bdfd, some marginal hands like 7x, some pp etc.
I think V only folding rivers with air but calling most hands with showdown value.
V can even raise his bluffs on this river since we don't have any 5x range. If I were villain, I might just ship with anything less than 2 pairs, I'm turning all my 1 pair showdown hands into bluffs here mainly because you having 5x makes no sense, if you somehow has like A5cc or random 5x then well played.

I think I probably just give up after flop was check/check.

What hands are you targeting on the river? He knows you're aggro and you implied that he's a calling station.

I assume he's calling the river with any pair, and quite possibly with AK.

lol what are you doing

if he folds you had the best hand

TT folds river guys...

if you don't think TT folds the turn i don't see why you would use your sizing

given stacks / pre ranges think this plays much better as range bet than range check otf. would likely just check down if u didnt though

river looks like a spot you get hero'ed fairly often as people will somewhat incorrectly think you can't bet much worse than a straight and 2 flush draws missed.

Grunch:

PRE - I hate playing speculative hands from EP when the BTN straddle is on. I don't necessarily hate the raise with AJs in the BB, but I somewhat expect this V to defend too wide, meaning we'll be playing at a disadvantage post and guessing when we bet and he calls.

FLOP - Check is fine, and what I'd usually do. But if I think V is unlikely to give us credit for a big PP if we check the two-tone flop, then I'd just c-bet with a plan to barrel off, which is the same line I'd take with KQ+.

TURN - I like the slight over-bet.

RIVER - Before we bet, we should consider what we're trying to fold out. When we don't c-bet the flop, V probably thinks we don't have KQ or better, so we're somewhat capped at JJ or worse.

If we don't think he's checking back the flop with QX or better, and he's not flatting the turn with a straight, then the best hand he's likely to have on the river is going to be 76 that ran into middle 2P. He's also going to have a lot of busted flush draws, which we un-block.

I'd think we could fold out some AX with a smaller bet, but we don't need to fold out much AX, unless he's showing up with AK, or some AX combo that made a pair.

I doubt we're folding out QX unless we jam, and even then, I wouldn't be shocked if QX calls. With two missed flush draws on board, he might call this 1/2 pot bet with a lot of his 1P combos.

I think this is one where it's okay to give up and check-fold if he bets. I'd mostly expect him to check back with all his ace-high combos that we beat, and a lot of his 1P holdings that weren't likely to fold. He'll probably only bet strong TP or better.

Result:

(Have not looked at Result yet.)

To me, Preflop, Flop, and Turn all look pretty good. It looks like you've raised an overpair, protected your checking range on the Flop hoping for a stab from Villain, and then bet big on the Turn to get paid.

River, I don't know. (But I do actually mean "I don't know", not "I dislike it and just want to say it in a passive-aggressive way".) I'm just not sure what hands actually call the Turn bet, and whether bluffing again is good. But if we do decide to bluff again, I think the sizing is good, it doesn't look scared. It's probably what KK would do. I just don't know if Villain has it in him to fold a pair now when he didn't on the Turn.

Result: this doesn't really tell you anything about whether your line was good or not.

When he calls the turn over-bet, his range is mostly draws and bluff-catchers that are weighted heavily towards QX or 88-TT. When all the draws miss, we can check river to let him check back or bluff.

It's unlikely he's going to be betting a worse hand or folding a better hand often enough to warrant a bet with our hand. We can't get called by worse, and he may not fold better.

I limp in but that's me.

Looks like effective stacks are $400?

Think I might prefer a small stab on the flop but I think a check is ok too.

Once we check the flop I think we should only continue putting in money with value cuz he's just so much more likely to not fold anything at this point since our line looks FOS (and if he's semi-aware of player types, I'll let you decide which bucket he's put us in). So turn and river look like setting money on fire to me, especially against anyone described as fish (which I equate with calling stationish). We're repping what exactly, 55? Looks way more like kinda what we have or a busted club flush draw.

ETA: I don't know if I'm not reading the OP right or not, but given our flop check, the draws busting, 5x making little sense for us / betting anything else also making little sense, and it's us, I expect this guy to fold ~TT exactly never. Is my read off on this?

ETA#2: Also love the way this guy tarped/induced you by checking back the flop. I mean, it's always super hard to tell exactly what is going on based on a single hand, but his check back alone here might make him one of the better players at the table, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

When I check the Flop and bet large on the Turn, players usually fold. I tried making it work as a value line but it works better as a bluff, imE.

No. Your read is not off. This line looks FOS. 88-JJ isn't folding anywhere near often enough. QX that checked back the flop is definitely never folding.

According to theory, this is a great line to take with AdAh or AdAs - we can check our AA combos that block the FDFD and unblock low-equity hands that are likely to bet - TP and the BDFD. We give V a chance to stab at it on the flop, and if he doesn't, we bomb the turn, and if he calls, we bomb the river, to get called by hands like 88-JJ and QX that don't believe we'd check flop with AA/KK.

This line works well enough with bluffs only when V has a weak hand that can't beat 2nd pair. Maybe he folds 55 that called turn with the GSSD, and hopefully he folds 22, which he shouldn't even have after he calls the turn over-bet. 33 and 44 were sets on the flop. 66 turned a GSSD and is a set by the river.

We're probably folding out AK often enough, not that AK gets here this way very often. We're probably also folding out chops, so there's some sliver of value in that. So we fold 22, 55, AK, and chops. We're not folding out much else with this line.

I'd bet even-money that V's combo of AQ had the Ad in it, allowing him to check back the flop without fear of diamonds coming.

Seems counter-intuitive to me? Are you actually being shown better hands as they muck? My guess is that over a small (or hazy memory selection) sample size you've just happened to run into a lotta spots where your opponent doesn't even have a bluffcatcher.

Yesterday I purposely checked my flopped TPGK OOP after raising preflop out of the blinds and getting it HU, and actually felt I missed value by only betting 1/2 PSBs on the turn/river (where my flop check got even nitty me called down by something likely other than TP).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Variance is famously high and memory famously selective, and I haven't tracked anything. So yeah I wouldn't even be that confident in this being statistically true myself. But memory definitely suggests it's better as a bluffing line, fwiw. (But yeah, usually no reveal.)

It's even possible that it's person specific, people tend to think I don't bluff, and I get less value but more bluffs through than most people. It could matter disproportionately for this line, for whatever reason.

Why do people support the overbet on the turn with A-high against a calling station? The last time hero barreled all streets, V called. Why expect V now to fold the turn?

He tank-called with tptk, and that makes you think he's hard to bluff? We're not trying to get him to fold tptk in this hand.