lower set on paired board
$1/3 at parx
V: tight not-so-agressive MAWG, no crazy bluffs so far and not overly sticky. Does not over limp too much (relatively compared to common 1/3 players).
preflop:limps around and H ($500) calls with 44 at MP. V ($200) calls at SB.
pot $15
flop: 4QTr. V bets $10. Folds to H, H makes it $30. Could make it bigger but this is large enough for this table. Folds to V and V calls. Heads up.
pot $75
turn T. V checks and H bets $50. V calls kind of quickly.
pot $175
river 8. V checks. H?
Options here are check or all in due to stack size. From flop, his range has Q2-QJ, T4, AT, maybe some KT, TJ, QK. By turn, it appears he has a T (by how fast he calls on this dry board), so likely QT, T4, AT, KT, TJ. I don't think he would fold anything with a T.
5 Replies
Jam, like you said he's not folding a ten. If he has QT we'll that's just bad luck. He's quite loose if he shows up with T4. Maybe could occasionally have T8 suited that didn't want to give up on flop.
Jam river.. way too much Tx in his range, checking back leaves money on the table.
^ Yup.
I also vote for jam, but just to count combos:
6 QT, 2 T4, 8 AT, 8 KT, 8 TJ
I probably would discount some AT KT and TJ, but H beats 60% - 75% of the hands in his range.
check EV: 175*0.7=122.5
jam EV: 295*0.7-120*0.3=170.5
In fact H only need 1:1 odds to jam, and here there are way too many T combos
Just put him in. If he has QT (or QQ or TT, but unlikely), so be it -- he's terrible for not betting river. If he has T4, that's just wrong.
