Question about chasing Flush draws.
OK, my apologies if this is silly or too trivial. Say you have a flush draw on the flop and say you you win if you hit it. How do you play it?
I know you have 9 outs on the turn and river. So if villain bets 1/4 pot he is giving you 5 to 1 pot odds and the odds against hitting your hand are 38 to 9 which is 4.2 to 1 so you call.
But let's say he bets pot, you don't want to call but if you have 1.5 pot behind. Does it make sense to go all in? My pot odds would be 1.5 to 2.5, he never folds here. Thus giving you just enough odds to call?
Here is a scenario: Hero has AQ of hearts, bets from UTG, Vilain who is TAG 3-bets from late position.
Flop comes K 7 2 two hearts, hero checks, vilain bets pot. You are sure he has AK+ but once in a blue moon he has QQ or JJ.
How do you calculate your outs on a such a range? You might have 9 outs, or just 7, or even 14.
5 Replies
I don’t look at it like that. I’m not concerned with making my hand, only in making villain fold. Will never be calling along trying to hit outs. I use these draws as semi-bluffs where I will be raising. I only need them to hit if I can’t make villain fold.
Don’t get the wrong idea, many times with a bad price, it’s best to fold these draws, especially when not drawing to the nuts. You will miss the draw too often, no matter how many outs you have.
Those who chase straights and flushes arrive in jets and leave on buses.
Do a search om the term "implied odds." If we're assuming you win if you hit, then you have to also make some assumptions about how much more money will go into the poit after that happens. That is limited by effective stacks, but V's holdings and willingness to call different sized bets once the draw comes in also play into it.
Also search on "fold equity," but be aware that it's pretty rare in live low-stakes Vs a range dominated by TPTK+. Finally, look up "reverse implied odds" which is the chance you hit and still lose, yet put more money in the pot. For example, if turn comes an A in your scenario above, how much do you love calling another big bet?
Long story short, I want a better combo-draw than the above before I would semi-bluff raise OTF, and the bet size in your scenario, combined with the amounts behind and the player profile tell me we don't have the implied odds to draw, so this is a fold.
Do a search om the term "implied odds." If we're assuming you win if you hit, then you have to also make some assumptions about how much more money will go into the poit after that happens. That is limited by effective stacks, but V's holdings and willingness to call different sized bets once the draw comes in also play into it.Also search on "fold equity," but be aware that
Thank you, I am aware of implied odds, or so I think lol, the situation that I am having in mind is there a scenario where you don't have the odds to call but you do when you go all in?
Thank you, I am aware of implied odds, or so I think lol, the situation that I am having in mind is there a scenario where you don't have the odds to call but you do when you go all in?
So what you mean is not about odds but about spr.
In the example you gave spr is like what 1.5? This is easy shove. You had the nfd, you also drawing to the A. When spr is very low, top pair is like the nuts especially HU. Even in multiway, others can have worse draws.
So what you need to research on is SPR.
Also when you're shorstacked, others 3betting you especially when you're in UTG is a sign of massive strength. So your hand is more a preflop thing than flop. Once you see the flop, you're never going anywhere.
Given your scenario of having 1.5 pots left when the villain just put in 1 pot on the flop, you're getting 2.5/1.5. -EV if you are depending on the flush to hit. In heads up situations, it is rare that it makes sense to chase a flush draw because if the flush hits, most villains will shut down.
