Top set as preflop caller OOP
1/3 NL UTG+1 has about 450, UTG about 300, and hero covers. UTG+1 is youngish appears east Asian, seems like competent TAG. UTG seems like a loose passive fish, but didn't notice anything particular about his play.
UTG limps, UTG+1 raises to 15, hero calls from the BB with 9c9s (could 3!), limper calls. Flop (40) 9h5c4h, checks around. Hero was playing for a x/r on the somewhat drawy board. Is leading out better?
Turn is 7c for 9h5c4h7c. Hero bets 30, both players call.
River (128) is 2h 9h5c4h7c2h. Should hero check/reevaluate or bet/fold?
10 Replies
Flop I think check raise is good, people way over stab these low board especially as pfr. River is a clear value bet imo.
Pre is fine. Flop intention good. Turn yes we need to bet.
Now bet fold is right line.
If UTG is passive, I’m cool with the call preflop. I like the intent to check raise on the flop. Turn bet is good. On river, now bet and fold to a big raise. I think you played it well.
I checked the river. It checked through and my hand was good. Felt I missed value.
I don't bet/fold much, but this seems like a spot. I think I would have made it about 80, maybe a little smaller. Don't want to go real small so it would look like thin value rather than a flush or a bluff.
I'm ok with preflop. Could have the best hand and win UI postflop, could ~setmine especially against invited fish, getting slight discount on a reasonable raise, no real dead money to go after, stacks aren't short to want to commit, etc.
I would donk the flop. We don't want to blow the fish out with a check/raise, we'd rather get him caught in a raising war. Board is drawy, and raiser could easily check back (a disaster) with fish involved. SPR is about 7ish, we can play for stacks against the fish with 3 reasonable bets, so I'd go like $35 - $40.
I probably bet larger on the turn as board is now even drawier.
I'd bet/fold river fairly smallish. It is unlikely anyone has TP, so we're really just targeting fishy second pair hands. I'd go like $40. Bet/folding is much better than check/calling cuz there is just more chance of money being put in when we have the best of it and a check is unlikely to induce a bluff multiway.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Grunch:
PRE - yes, we could 3B. I probably would.
FLOP - yes, we can and likely should donk, rather than go for a x/r on this board, with the limper in the middle. A donk is going to get more calls and fewer folds than a x/r.
TURN - I'd pot it, if not over-bet.
RIVER - I might block bet around 1/2 pot and fold if we get raised. Might also check with a plan to call any reasonable sized bet. It just gets weird if the guy in the middle stabs at it and the PFR calls, or raises. We could end up folding the best hand here.
I checked the river. It checked through and my hand was good. Felt I missed value.
I don't bet/fold much, but this seems like a spot. I think I would have made it about 80, maybe a little smaller. Don't want to go real small so it would look like thin value rather than a flush or a bluff.
I think bet/fold especially on River is one of the most important tools we have in our arsenal at low stakes.
Low stakes players call too light, so we have to value bet thin, and at the same time they don't raise often (especially turn and river) without a nutted hand, so it's often an easy fold.