Line check - JJ first hand day time table

PRE - I'd probably raise to at least $75, if not slightly more, just to make sure we don't go multi-way and ensure we're defining opponents' continue ranges a little more.

FLOP - assuming everyone is 4B'ing AA/KK pre, and often enough will 4B QQ, and won't often show up with 55 or 2x, we should be ahead, but I'm not sure we need to jam. Seems like we're making it easy for them to get away from 66-TT.

I'd probably just make it $70-$80 and look to jam most turns.

Yeah bet small and jam turn. Smaller over pairs don’t fold for $70 (sometimes they even check-jam) but they could fold for All-in.

If either guy wants to check/call AQ for $70 I’m ok with that too.

I like your play here. It’s just a pot-sized bet and you’re probably ahead if called at this point. Make the overcards pay to continue.

Hopefully they fold, you muck, win a nice chunk and they wonder what you had. Great way to start the day.

Bet small shove every turn. We maximize this way, shoving just folds our hands that call once.

Respectfully, if we over-bet jam for over 100BB's and get called, I wouldn't assume we're ahead more than half the time, on such a dry board. I'd mostly expect to see A2 or 55. Even A5s has five outs to make a better hand, which is enough to make it a reasonable call (V doesn't know we have JJ - we could have AK and he'd be way ahead).

Occasionally someone check-calls with 43, but that seems unlikely, and even when it happens, they're not so far behind that calling doesn't make some sense, given they'd be getting almost the correct pot odds to call with an OESD.

And if we think we're ahead, why would we hope they all fold? Wouldn't we want them to call with worse hands? I'd think their ranges are going to be weighted towards 66-TT and unpaird over-cards. Don't we want them to call with all those hands, when they're drawing so slim?

I think the balancing act between value and protection depends a lot on Hero and what their utility function is. Do they want to maximize value or minimize variance? That varies a lot from person to person.

Personally I like to maximize variance whenever possible. Flipping is fun. Also, I know I’ll take a big loss better than most of my opponents.

Here with JJ we could bet small and maybe entice KQ or A4 to try and suck out on us. That’s just how it goes. We make more by getting those hands to call once.

I'm fine with it. Looks a lot like AK that wants folds, so maybe they call w/ smaller pairs or A5, 65, etc.

Interesting so many advocate for bet small, shove turn as there are no good turns for my hand. Also was worried if V1 called small that V2 would call getting 5:1.

Results: both V’s folded. H felt good with play.

Interesting that you say this. I feel the complete opposite. This is a great board for your hand and after you cbet small and get one caller, there are no bad turn cards. Your opponents are almost always going to have between 2 and 6 outs. It's true that you aren't going to know what cards help them (does a 7 complete 77? Does a K complete KQs that floated with a BDFD?) but it doesn't matter because you flopped a strong overpair at SPR 1 which might as well be the nuts. Just want to try to extract as much value as possible in what is a very high EV spot.

If you shove with your air range as well it's fine.

If you don't you are missing a lot of value.

Bet small gets value from pp any pair and sometimes even random floats. Also some villain might spazz and ship w/atc vs small bets.

When you jam they fold alot more of the time.

After 3b’ing pre, getting an SPR of 1 and a flop of 225r I believe I am jamming nearly 100% of the time.

there are no bad turns for your hand lol. if they call 70 or something on the flop how often can you possibly be beat on an ace turn? if you think undercards are bad how often can you be beaten on an 8 turn?

most interesting part of the sim when i look at it is aa is pure trapped as ip (also oop are supposed to lead quite a bit i guess to protect equity - ep is supposed to lead range for small!)

Another J would be a good turn, no? Also another 2.

Think I'd be okay seeing a 3 or 4. Don't think I'd hate any card from 6 to T, even knowing any of those cards might make V a boat.

I don't think we have to dread seeing a K or Q, if only because I think a lot of Kx and Qx combos don't connect with this board, and just fold out, even to a small c-bet. I'd think KT and QT are snap folds, and we block a fair number of KJ and QJ combos, so we're really only concerned V floats with AK/AQ/KQ.

The card I'd hate most is an A, because V might have some A3, A4, A5 and AK/AQ combos that floated the flop, assuming they're calling 3B's pre with a lot of suited wheel aces.

But then again, we could have AK/AQ here, such that V may not love it if he has KQ or some low wheel ace that isn't aces up.

We can always check back if we don't like the turn, and then go for thin value if V checks to us again on the river.