River sizing vs huge fish, uber deep stacks
Ok this is not played live but maybe close enough(fishy/loose callers, aggro opens/3bettors, nonstandard stacksizes/open sizings, 9 handed)
Maybe this is better place than online forums for such hand.
Ok game is 9 handed roughly equivalent of about 100NL(0.5/1$) in asian app with squid game(you lose 33bb or more every 11 hands if you don't win a single hand).
The pool in general are very fishy and aggro at the same time.
This is first hand of a new round so no one has a squid yet.
Effective stacks 1073bb
2 limpers
Fish in mp opens 26bb(very big, usually 10-18bb open is more "standard") so assume his range is on the stronger side, TT+/AQ+
Hero in SB flats with 6♦6♠
Headsup pot 57.1bb
Flop A♦A♠4♦
Check check
Turn 6♣
Hero checks, Villain bets 38.5bb
Hero check/raises to 158bb (maybe bigger? Or does this look bluffier?)
Villain calls
Pot 373.1
River 9♦
Villain's range is AA, Ax, TT+
We have 890bb left.
How much do we bet on river for maximum value??? We bet folding? or Bet/calling if he does shove?
We betting big or small?
Some HH I have on villain
HH1
He flats w/KTo oop, K84cc x/c 1/3 pot
Turn Q, facing pot size bet, he check/ships 2.5x the bet
HH2
He limp/call w/JTo for like 20+bb
QT4r He x/c pot bet
K He donk shove pot.
HH3
He limp/call in EP for 18bb
3way pot 58
flop 593r, facing 1/3 cbet, he x/r to 55bb
Turn 6 x/f to 1/2 bet(I'd assume it's a bluff flop x/r)
7 Replies
First of all, we often have the best hand, it’s hidden & we want the value we deserve. It will be unusual for us to be beat in this situation, so I wouldn’t even consider it.
I think a small inducing bet, hoping he shoves and we snap. It’s too risky to check & let villain check behind. The most likely hand is trip aces & that’s hard to lay down. If you can convince villain that you are worried when he called the check-raise, maybe he’ll blast off.
I categorize ‘limp players’ as weak. It makes this move more scary as this is just the kind of player that just might have A4, A6, or A9. Still, there’s just a big chance he has AK and thinks you have an ace & his kicker is good.
I’ll admit that losing this hand would crush me. I’d probably quit for the day. But I get smacked by that hidden set from time to time and this one turned into a boat. Time to smack someone else.
The only people that open 20+BB's are gigafish trying to just 'win a hand' and avoid difficult preflop decisions even if that means scooping the blinds preflop. This is usually going to be more like 88+ and consisting of only PP's, but never AA since they are pretty comfortable with that 1 particular hand. There's no universe in which he checks trips on the flop if he had Ax, so I think his most likely holding is actually just QQ/KK cursing how unlucky he runs no matter how much respect his raises deserve. Bet to target that range. There's $1800 out there, if I had to make KK fold on a AA469 flush board I'd probably bet something like $1200, so size down to maybe $800 to get a crying call. If you think there's a freak chance he could somehow have a flush or the 2% of the time he really does have AK then I'd say there's no raise that could ever get him to fold and I'd just jam it allin.
Against a fish, dont overthink it. Just jam. On the odd occasion we do lose, but fish are gonna have a hecka difficult time folding flushes or trips.
Spoiler
In game, I was thinking betting too big might get folds since the flush card came out.
I ended up betting for a small amount(55%), 205bb, villain snap called. Automucked in game so dunno what he had(probably Ax?).
I'm wondering if it was alot better to bet bigger like pot or slight overbet.
The very next hand
Villain opened AKo to 28bb in mp, 4 callers
Flop KJ6hh
SB donks out 173bb (1.2xpot) with 400bb behind
Villain jams for 600+bb effective with 2 more players behind yet to act
MP+1 snap calls w/66
SB snap calls w/T8hh????? (yea sb is also a huge fish, we stacked him earlier with flop nuts)
And turn+river are J and K for runner runner fullhouse stacking 2 players.
This hand got me wondering how much value I might have missed. Maybe villain got tilted from my hand or maybe this is his standard play.
Now imagine if I were to bet 400bb or so, and he still calls. That's 200bb more value.
Maybe it was better to raise bigger on turn(250-300bb) to set up river shove.
Still not too sure because it would suck if villain somehow can get away and folds Ax.
You played it fine. Notice how V shoveled money into the pot on the flop holding TPTK facing a draw, but in your hand he just checked. This means he bets when he has value and otherwise calls when he doesnt. He's also fear motivated meaning his bets are designed to force people out not keep them in.
My grandfather told me, “Make a decision and don’t look back.” but don’t we all hate missing out on value.
One teacher said to bet big targeting the 2nd best hand. Sure, they will fold most of the time, but when they do have that hand you stack them.
Then you size down and they still fold
It’s easy to get folds, but betting for value is often frustrating. The one I sulk about is when aggro is driving into my nuts and I raise too soon or too much folding him.
I don’t know if we can ever answer this question. The same player may play it different today than last time. Maybe my grandfather’s advice is all we have.
Your turn raise size is fine. Bigger might look too strong and scare off Ax hands.
