Burning $$$ on the Turn?

If you were to 3bet the flop to 200BB thus pot committing yourself would you feel that to be a leak or an edge? Shoving because you 'dont know what else to do' is not a strategy. You raised preflop because you have the best hand. You downbet the flop to keep your opponent wide, but instead he raised you which dramatically narrows his range. He's now telling you he not only loves his hand, but that your bet size was too small and he wants to get more money in there for value and to deny you odds to draw if you were in fact drawing. Now it is you who are the victim of having a weak range. At this stack depth there is no point at which you are pot committed yet. Calling the flop x/r could possibly exploit a sizing leak in your opponent but he can still comfortably get it allin by the river with a set (especially if you shove).

I dont have the discipline to fold the flop but I'm for damn sure not shoving to play a 500BB pot with 1 pair.

Shoving makes no sense, you’re folding his bluffs and called my hands that crush you. Call turn and play rivers.

At this stack depth I would 3b bigger.

I understand you not getting too big pre as you don’t want to run everyone out. I don’t like giving up the initiative and would have doubled villain’s 3bet on the flop. Let villain know you’re strong too.

I think this would have given you a clearer picture. Villain’s aggressive play early leads me to believe he’s not connecting with the 3,4,5 but if he 5bets you have to consider JJ.

When you have AA, you can’t let villain put you to the test - because then you think about shoving your stack so you don’t have to make any more decisions. You want to keep villain guessing, not the other way around.

Drive the train into the turn and it’s much easier - now UTG likely checks to raiser, you have more options, can even take a FreeCard and keep the pot small.

Any reads on V?

You might 3bet bigger pre given how deep you are, but on the other hand keeping a lower SPR in position has some merit too. This decision is somehow V-dependent.

Flop seems ok, and fairly standard. Without specifc reads, there is no reason to 4bet, imo.

Turn is weird, mainly because of the small size chosen by V and the related SPR.
The down bet means weakness in general, or at least a "condensed" range, so you may want to call (I see no point shoving here).
If you call, you will have a little less than a psb on the river, so you could still fold to a shove in case.

On the other hand, I am wondering if V is good enough to size his turn bet precisely to be left with ~1 psb otr.

In retrospect, a bigger 3bet preflop would have avoided this awkward turn spot ...

What's V's HUD stats, OP? Or, what reads do you have on V?

Agree with Condemned, that at 250-260bb, I'm 3!'ing more than exactly 3X.

The flop raise is a minclick. It's not really denying H odds to draw. So, IMHO, it's either JJ or H is ahead on flop and turn. I don't see 55/44/54 as realistic for either player---are they really at UTG2, opening 6.6x over a limper with it, and is H 3!'ing with any of that either? Or 76/A2 given the turn?

I've seen both fishy getting cute with a minclick to rep top set, and people bluffing with this sizing, repping top set etc.

Also agree that I don't want to play a >500 bb pot with just a pair, even the bestest pair. Tempted to 3!/f the flop, but most sizes commit H. Cbetting flop w/o the Ad, but probably going smaller.

We need reads.

Pre - good, mission accomplished. I read some of the comments that we should be jacking up the 3! larger because we're deeper. I disagree, that destroys the entire benefit of being deep. With AA specifically, we want to encourage our opponents to 4! because the hands they will 4! with are ones we have utterly crushed. If we're just blasting away with huge 3!s, we are wearing our aces on our sleeve and we're going to be punished by moderate players. My goal with any 3! is to get headsup in position. The 3! should be a size that is going to achieve that. If you just want to jam it in pre and play bingo, then play shortstack games.

Flop - Looks fine. I read the min-click as weak. I think we're up against a lot of Ax/Kx diamonds, Jx, QQ, maybe TT with diamond. But JJ can still be there.

Turn - The size tells me we're probably not against a nutted hand. Sets are going to fear the diamond. Diamond draws slow down here sometimes and might look to x/c. There is no value in shoving because we get snapped by sets if he somehow has one and we fold out a hand like AJ that we can get value from.

If our read is that V has a tendency to underbluff, then we should be very comfortable playing the river because he'll turn his hand face up with his bet size. We're probably folding if he jams most rivers with a read of underbluffing. If he checks any river, we bet for value. If he bets small on a diamond, I'd be tempted to rip it in as a bluff against JJ if I thought V is tight enough to make that fold. It's one of those rare spots where a bluff could be called by worse (AdJ) but better might fold. It isn't a lot of money relative to the pot, but you still have 100+ bb which is a lot of money for the game. So OTR we have bluffing and value betting options and absolutely enough to fold if V assures us he has the nuts with a jam. And even if he bets like 60bb OTR with a set and we pay it off, still better than getting 160bb in almost dead.

A lot of people reading the flop minraise as weakness. I had a nickname for this move; the postflop minraise of death. I dont think I have ever seen it be anything less than a set in my entire life. Preflop is another story; fish love to click it back pre just to 'sweeten the pot' with suited connectors, but on the flop? It's just the nuts every time, even on this texture. In fact I still remember a huge hand I won in a similar situation to OP where I just called because "**** that bet size". I ended up sorta sucking out but the rest of the table mocked the minclicker saying he deserved to lose for that. His defense? "I wanted to milk him" were his exact words verbatim.

Dude, jesus, just give us dollar amounts. No one wants to do maths.

As for the hand -

PRE - UTG2's raise size over a UTG limp looks like BS to me. With the dead money in the pot, I'd 3B bigger. If he made it $20, I'd make it $80, because it's low stakes and they under-fold.

FLOP - I'd probably c-bet a larger size when it's HU and we're IP as the PFR. Probably betting 1/2 pot to target all his JX and worse PP's, not trying to be overly GTO with the sizing.

Never folding to a min-click raise.

TURN - I'd need a really strong read to fold to the 1/3 pot bet after V x/r's the flop. We're getting around 4:1 and we picked up a wheel draw to go with our over-pair.

If I'm doing the maths right, we'll have around a PSB left behind getting to the river? Seems like an okay spot to call and consider a fold if he jams river.

It seems unlikely he has 2P+ in this line if there's a flush draw on board. This looks more like he's trying to set his own price to get to showdown, or doing something theory-ish, because he thinks this board favors him more than us.

Some reads and knowing the suits of our cards and the suits of the board would help.

That tiny turn bet looks like bait. Shoving into a value heavy range just lights money on fire

So I just realized I was reading this thread on my phone or the old forum, which doesn't show the suits when the thread is posted to the new forum. Seeing the suits now...

Yeah, I think flatting flop and turn is fine, but if V jams for a PSB on the river, I'd probably fold, unless we improve to top set or a wheel.

I spotted the reveal that V had JJ. Seems like he's a disciplined player. A lot of low stakes recs wouldn't be able to stop themselves from x/r'ing huge and bombing the turn on this board.

The flop x/r on a wet board is often 2P+, but could also be a good draw. But the min-click sizing is kind of weird when they actually have thick value. I can't remember ever seeing someone check-click the flop and then go small on a turn brick.

Not saying it's fishy. Just saying it's not the typical max-value line you see at low stakes. If we spike an A or 2 on the river, this guy's going to want to lay down in traffic.