SC flops primo OOP

Shove? We're comfortably ahead of JJ+ with no heart, and marginally ahead of it with a heart. Versus TT and sets we still have decent equity. And I would be very happy to get a fold, even though I don't expect it.

But also fold pre instead of calling 54s to a nearly 6x open that you think is TT+/AK.

Ironically I think A7hh would have the most equity here.

We probably have 0 fold equity but even if you shove you should be 50/50 unless he has a higher fd.

Now that you are here, just gii. However, pre is a fold. I know it's fun to call with this hand, but do it from position, not BB. You hate almost every flop -- even this one is questionable, but here you are. $17 is too big to be calling, regardless. Let him get one through to give him some confidence.

Heck, say something like, "AK is good, " and maybe he will show 😉

Easy call here, can’t fold the nuts draw combo that flops so clean.

We’re doing well vs overpairs, jam for value.

Preflop is a fold, but is close, as this guy obviously plays badly postflop, and it is better that you are pretty sure he has TT+/AK or 99+/AQ, so you can get a good read on what he has postflop. Would rather call on the BTN or with a small pp.

He bet almost 3x pot on the flop. It looks like he has an overpair and is scared of the wet middle card board. Obviously, that is not how I would play an overpair on this flop.

You are 55% against an overpair without a heart, and very slightly behind if he has a heart. If he somehow has AhKh or 66-99, you are in worse shape. So it isn't really a shove for value. It is more a big flip, which is maybe slightly more profitable then folding. I doubt he ever overbets like this and folds. Don't think he overbets with AhKx/AhQx or anything weak on the flop. You probably can't flat call the huge overbet. I guess you have to shove, but folding this combo draw with little in the pot would not be a big mistake.

dont give these guys action. Go on immediate transfer and walk around the room.

just jam

he probably doesnt fold an overpair but who knows, plus you have good equity anyway. also jam your sets, straights, and two pair on this board, obviously.

pre is bad because usually you just flop weak draws that these guys will always price you out of postflop

? tight passive games are some of the easiest to beat if you are aggro, like banana is

Table may not be that bad. They may be raising tight, but they may call your raises, particularly when you have a looser raising range than most there.

Folding preflop is better, but the call isn't that bad. This guy cbets 3x pot with an overpair on 976 2-flush. If you had flopped 2-pair or a straight, you would usually stack him. You have the worse hand, but he plays terribly and you know more or less what he has.

Calling $17 from the BB w/ 54 is not aggro 😉

fold pre, block flop, am uncertain if ev of jam > ev of call tbh but i would just shove

Why block flop?

Fold pre but you are ahead of AA now so just rip.

I don't agree with shove. It is a fold or maybe a call. There is hardly anything in the pot and you don't have to equity against his range. Just because you made a mistake preflop doesn't mean you have to stack off when you hit.

You are ahead of AA, but AA is best case that he plays this way with. Assuming he doesn't have a sc to make a straight or 2-pair or a small pp to make a set, you are still in trouble against anything he can have except a big pair.

You are about 52% against JJ-AA. It is worse if he has a pp with a heart, because there is one less heart to hit and he can make a back door flush. TT and 88 have a straight draw and 99 is a set. He can have a flush draw with AhKh or AhQh, plus suited broadway if he raises them preflop that sizing.

When he makes that 3x pot bet, it looks like a big pair, but it actually makes more sense with other hands. If he has TT, he has a straight draw with the pair. Plus he is worried about almost any turn card, as overcards are also a problem.

I love playing these hands. Won a huge pot with 56ss this weekend, but I was in position and they're was a raise and 2 callers in front of me, I closed the action.

Yuck, yuck yuck, I hate these spots and would have definitely folded pre against an unknown omc with QQ or something similar.

Fold, much, much better spots to be had.

Fold now.

If he had cbet pot or less, then this would be a good spot. Then just flat call, knowing he probably has an overpair, and will pay off if you hit, particularly if a 3 hits.

The way this guy plays, I think preflop is only a small mistake, knowing he has mostly JJ+/AK, and it would definitely be a call preflop with a small pp.

Just checking numbers here, I see 55.5% equity against AA no heart and 50.7% against AA with a heart. It's within a few tenths for the other overpairs except TT which is 46.1% with no heart and 41.3% with.

Unless we're going to completely discard the Villain read, I just don't see how he can have any straights, 2p, or likely even any FD here. Even 99 seems very unlikely as I doubt he'd overbet with a set. And honestly I think we have more fold equity than people might think. The overbet on the flop screams a hand like JJ or QQ which is extremely relieved to have faded overcards on the flop and wants the hand over now. Certainly might call a shove, but there is a serious chance he starts seeing monsters and folds. It's not a ton of fold equity, but I would be happy to call it 10%.

Honestly I probably fold pre, at least sometimes, and probably fold to this ridiculous c-bet size.

If we're going to continue, I guess I can get on board with a jam.

These games are just rake traps and cooler setups. Most of your money is going to come from the river, which you're never going to get to see as described, and if you do they'll probably always have the nuts.

Result:

24% against his hand. That was almost the nut worst case, as your straight and flush were dominated. That is why you don't shove because you are 52% against AA. You also don't assume he is bad enough to cbet 3x pot on this board with AA.

Error preflop, followed by error on flop.

Trivial fold preflop facing this raise size OOP, imo.

And I now check/shove the flop to this flop sizing. He's most likely attempting to protect an overpair of which we're doing fine against. Add in just 10% FE and we become a solid fave.

GcluelessNLnoobG

pot looks slightly wrong if he opens to 17 fwiw (goes from like 2.85x to 2.4x). really only see it c/c when i sim it out though both options make money - implication is at equlibrium call makes a bit more but we are not really in kansas anymore otf. id x/jam just because you have too much equity to fold and you aren't drawing to the nuts anywhere / oop and it looks very likely that we are going to get priced out ott.

i would caution against thinking u know w certainty an unknowns range in an extremely, extremely rare line that you have no real experience / data with and try to just play wellish while erring on side of caution (obviously you don't fold your hand otf)

going to depend on exactly what ranges u put in pre but i see oop blocking ~40% for b25 otf, or ~33% for b33 although our 54 is the least led 54ss combo so thats sort of interesting. should be very clear this is the sort of board u can lead given pre ranges