Tptk on river
Ok this is not played live but maybe close enough(fishy/loose callers, aggro opens/3bettors, nonstandard stacksizes/open sizings, 9 handed)
Maybe this is better place than online forums for such hand.
Ok game is 9 handed roughly equivalent of about 100NL(0.5/1$) in asian app with squid game(you lose 22bb or more every 11 hands if you don't win a single hand).
The pool in general are very fishy and aggro at the same time.
Villain has 1 squid, Hero has 2 already. There 6 more squids left. Squid value doubles when you have 4 or more.
I have labeled villain as a huge fish(whalelike), but no memorable hands this session. Label was from previous sessions.
Effective stacks 725bb
Villain in utg opens to 7.5bb
Hero in mp w/A♦Q♦ 3bets to 38.5bb
V calls
Hu pot 81.5bb
Flop Q♣2♦2♥
Villain checks, Hero cbets 23.5bb, V calls
Pot 128.5bb
Turn T♣
check/check (we chickened out)
River 7♥
V bets 64.5bb
Hero?
7 Replies
I'm confused, Mango, and I've read more than a few HH from your unique game. Why isn't this simply a call?
IIRC, everyone's really loose and really aggro. I think you can bet the flop for more, probably half. Call a raise. Then bet the turn, and now at least call the river. It's a half pot bet, and small compared to some of the HHs you've posted. Are you considering raising?
I'm confused, Mango, and I've read more than a few HH from your unique game. Why isn't this simply a call?IIRC, everyone's really loose and really aggro. I think you can bet the flop for more, probably half. Call a raise. Then bet the turn, and now at least call the river. It's a half pot bet, and small compared to some of the HHs you've posted. Are you considering raisin
Yea, I was wondering if it's a raise.
Looking at combos, yes. Looking at the fish hitting 1/2 pot exactly, and yeah, it's a button, not a calc, but... V's opened UTG (for whatever that's worth in FishLand), then called or checked until river, where they donk 1/2 pot after a x-back. Looks like a dumb bluffy stab from here.
If they're stabby, dumb, and will call a raise, sure, stick in a small raise. I don't think they call enough to risk reopening the action, and there aren't (AIU the rules) any squid considerations making either of you more aggro than the situation normally warrants.
Spoiler
We just called, villain had KQo
In retrospect, I think it's alot better to size up to like 1/2 on flop, although 1/3 type bets is our standard cbetting sizing but against this specific player, sizing up is probably best for value.
Then barreling turn is probably better as well.
As played on river, maybe we can raise to like 130-150bb and fold to a shove. Yes villain has some 2x, 22, TT, 77, Qx, random bluffs when he bets this river.
I think in game I was scared of firing turn barrels was from monster under the bed syndrome from getting clicked back on turns in this player pool by aggro players with random draws/bluffs. Maybe against this specific player it wasn't the case, so probably barreling is better.
feels like a crying call tbh. were deep but this line from a big whale is usually one pair trying to get paid, not trips or slowplays. if he had a boat he’s probably doing the “big scary overbet” not half pot. i call and just sigh if he shows me QT.
Hero should raise the river given this line, something like 1.65x seems OK, i don't mind even a bit smaller. I do get that this deep we hate planning raise/fold lines with an underreped hand, especially if villain is willing to ship light or bluff all-in.
Strongly dislike turn check.
You just have to b/b/b with this hand, kind of precisely for this reason. There's just not nearly enough on the other branches to make up for missing a street of value here, especially assuming villain isn't finding the B200+ river leads against a check-back that a bot does.
River's still close to a raise, even in theory, and it's going to perform much better in practice. You can go small, like 150bbs, as it is quite thin. A 3b bluff jam is not something you realistically need to worry about in practice.
BTW, you lose a lot of value not finding B50+ bets on boards that are this favorable for you in 3BPs. Fun fact: you lose more range betting just B33 on boards this good for you than you do range betting B33 on boards that are bad for you (except for the very worst ones like 987tt).
Obviously it isn't worth it for you to pour a bunch of study time into spreadsheets with like +/- 2.5% of the pot variability in profitability for different strats on different boards at equilibrium in your games. BUT high level I think it's important to know when you're directionally moving away from the proper exploit instead of toward it. And in this case, under-sizing favorable boards is an anti-exploit of the field.
