TT oop
1/3 7 handed live
Villain just moved tables. He is MAWG. His chips are a mess, all over the place(does this mean he's aggro or loose?) Anybody using this as a tell?
Hero is asian guy in 30s
Effective stacks 600
Utg opens to 10
Hero w/T♣T♠ 3bets to 35 in +1.
Villain coldcalls in co.
HU pot 74
Flop A♥9♥6♣
Hero?
11 Replies
Hero bets 30, hoping to get folds from things like KQ.
Checking is fine too, but more inclined to check with KK that doesn't need as much protection.
Just check and see what he does.
I have my chips messy all the time and I’m a nit. But if someone has a lot of reds they’re often lag.
Check or block bet fine.
HU pot 74
Flop A♥9♥6♣
Hero ended up cbetting 25.
V raises to 75.
Hero????
Fold
I'm struggling to make sense of V's line. But we were basically bluffing and he's raised, so it seems like a pretty trivial snap fold.
If there's some super-exploitative deviation to be made here, I'm not seeing it based on MAWG with a sloppy chip stack. I'd need a ton more info before I'd want to continue here.
Spoiler
HU pot 74
Flop A96
Hero cbet 25.
V raises to 75.
I ended up calling because flop raise didn't make much sense to me.
Turn K♠
We check, he barrels for 100, we fold.
That session specificly, we rarely saw villain bluff, was passive the whole night. He's an angle shooter and likes to make speech plays. He played passively mainly because a maniac was sitting behind him that other night.
Tonight we played with him again. Turns out, he's actually a loose aggro but with station like tendencies against the maniac.
He turned up his aggression against the whole table when maniac was gone tonight.
Eventually he lost a few pots here and there then went on tilt and shipping like 5 hands in a row
Final hand that busted him out was donking out pot KT on KJTr then facing a raise from pfr and another players jam, he just snap calls.
That flop is awful for TT. I’m checking and prolly giving up unless he gives me a reason to think he’s light
I consider messy stacks to be looser players, but a few orbits should confirm.
Check the flop. If I'm going to bet, it's a little bigger so he can't raise easily as a bluff. As played, fold to the raise.
As a general heuristic, super-tidy stacks correlates with tight play, and super-messy stacks correlates to loose play, but in my observation, that correlation isn't all that strong, and I haven't seen anyone make a convincing case that there's a correlation with being passive or aggressive.
Perfect correlation would be +1 (100% the two go together all the time). I'd guestimate it might be as high as +0.5 or +0.6 - moderate positive correlation, enough to notice, but not enough to rely on it in edge cases.
I've seen guys spend 10-15 minutes perfectly lining up the sides of all their chips, just to check-jam TPNK over a bet and a raise on a low-paired board. I try to keep my stack pretty tidy, and I can be a loose cannon sometimes.
Personally, I tend to give more weight to unusual chip stack configurations which I deem to be fishy, like the guy who buys in short and lines the rail with a bunch of half-stacks, versus the reg who likes to build annoyingly high chip towers that make it hard to count at a glance.
Here, maybe the sloppy stacks would lead me to think he's calling a bit too wide pre, such that he might show up with some weird 2P combo like 96, but I'd be careful not to let myself think he's raising with 87. Maybe he's raising all his 2P, sets, combo draws, and a lot of his AX. If he's loose pre, he can have a ton of value hands or big draws, and doesn't necessarily need to be balanced with bluffs.
