99 vs check/minraise

He usually has an overpair. Will he fold it if you jam? I usually spaz out here with 77/88 but fold 99.

I'm cool with preflop.

I'm cool with our small bet when checked to protect against overs.

Wow, did not expect the ol' check/minclick on this board, lol, WTF? I mean, my default mode is that we just got check/raised on the flop, so I would fold all one pair hands. But given this stoopid price I guess i can't hate flatting in position and seeing what happens. But if he's going to follow up on the turn like 100% of the time (isn't that what a flop check/raiser is going to do?) then we might be better off saving $20 and folding now.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Agree. I find that sort of thing a bit tilting, and I'm not quite sure why. Like, what are you repping here on 654xcc, Mr. UTG >6x open who's been limpy the rest of the session? AKcc or AcAx is all I can think of. They should never have 87/77/A6cc you get the idea. While an overcalling BU can have all the sets and SCs at 14-15:1 IO pf.

I almost want to minclick or pop it to 80 back at him. Or jam now. But probably just call, then jam nonflushing, no SD completing rivers.

Though they'll probably have odds after a likely turn barrel that they'll just sigh call their JJ-AA. Pot will be 144 with 240 back on a flop call. A similar turn barrel for 50-60, means it'll be 180-190 to call our jam, for a total pot of 624. They'll need 29-31%. A good player could fold, but a good player isn't minclicking except as a rage-inducing exploit. Which I don't 'think' is going on.

So I jam or fold. It is a spaz jam, agreed.

Even though this flop is supposed to hit us much harder than him, I'm never jamming against someone who just check/raised tarped us cuz i don't think they're ever folding an overpair / overcards + flush draw. I mean, I saw a spazzy guy raise/fold the flop ("I guess I know where I am now, thanks") last session out, but I'm guessing that most who check/raise the flop aren't planning on folding.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Genuinely no idea what you're talking about but if you're shoving to make him fold an overpair you're just throwing money away.

A passive player opens 7x and c/r us on this board and we want to shove to fold out overpairs.... Just repeat that to yourself.

Realistically the way this hand plays out is we call flop and fold all turns except for a 9 and the only reason we do that is because he clicks it back. It's an absolute snap fold vs any other size.

This discussion group absolutely detests set mining unless they're getting like 20:1 in position, and the reason they usually claim is that it's too hard to make money from V's OPs when you hit. Often with something snide about it no longer being 2015, etc...

It can't be both. Either our villains do what you suggest, and call too much in this situation with their OP entitlement, in which case set mining is AOK. Or they fold to H's representing they actually have 87/67-44.

H calling is betting 20 to hit a 2 outer on the next card, per you. V has 240 back, and there's 144 already there. So 20 to 144, that's a no; and 20 to maybe get 384 if they always stick it in when they're behind with their AA. 20:404 is 4.9% we need. And 1-(43/45) is 4.4%, our actual chances of spiking a 9. We don't even have the implied odds to draw to one card here, though it's close, never mind the actual ones.

Consider if H actually did have 87/66-44 here in a thread asking, "What do?" They'd also be pilloried for advocating a shove. Because the V always folds their AA-KK here when H does. Even if they've minclicked us. It can't be both.

If this is our read, let's fold, take a note to fast play our value > an OP, and move on.

Hero ended up calling.
V's range is overpairs/fd

Pot 144
Turn 3♦
V checks
Hero?

About 3bet or jamming flop, well, against unknowns I've tried raising cbets on low boards like 457r w/66, I get 3bet jammed on by overpairs, felt sick to call even with pot odds at a 4:6 dog.

Imho, against unknowns, I've easier success getting stacks in with value hands.

Only once they know me as a nit, and they stop paying me off. That's when I start bluffing more.

Also we do have showdown value against fd. Although I'm not too sure if fd minclicks it.

Yeah the same discussion group who has been telling me that bet/folding is bad because villains might bluff us off the best hand yet villains also never bluff. Regardless of that, I'm genuinely unsure what you're advocating for here. Villain is not going to x/r fold an over pair here.

Genuinely can't believe you're trying to convince us that a passive player who opened 7x is folding overpairs. It's just too bizarre.

Flop is an easy call. We've got pot odds and position. There's really no other option that makes sense. Our hand beats bluffs but not value.

On this turn I'm considering turning my hand into a bluff and barreling off. Against a weaker opponent I probably bet turn with a smallish size and gauge our opponent's body language. Then depending on the river card and our evaluation of our opponent we can either check back river and take our SD value or jam as a bluff. We shouldn't really have many straights here, but does our opponent know that, or are they likely to give us credit? Against a strong opponent I might just check back turn and try to get to showdown.

Check back turn. Zero reason to bet. Does not sound like the type to fold an over pair. He's going to check/call you down -- or check/raise.

Call flop. Check back turn.

OTF, I do expect that we are beat a lot, but I'm a sucker for calling the clickback, especially on the flop. You're getting odds to draw for a miracle runout. I'd assume I'm behind and call.

Turn: I'm betting this all day. The four-card straight came in, we can get a lot of players off of AA here. I'm betting $40 here, because I think that leaves us with $200 behind. Sometimes we might take it down right now, but we're getting reluctantly called by overpairs and I want to have a big chunky bet to jam river.

Bet $40. As long as he doesn't like jam over the top of us or look too excited, the default plan is to jam river.

There's more than one way to win other than hitting our 9. It's a board that has a lot of obviously scary runouts. I think jamming flop AA is calling 100% of the time. There are a lot of draws. But when a club or straightening card comes out, V's AA is going to get a lot more uncomfortable, and our odds of getting V to fold improve.

If I had 66 here, I'm just ripping it in expecting to get called by JJ+ and Ax FDs. So I wouldn't shove with 99. But when the turn comes and V checks, I feel a lot better about starting a bluff now. We just need to tell V twice that we have a straight.

Agreed. Shoving flop is throwing money away with 99, I don't hate bluffing turn at all on a 4 straight board.

Ok
Flop after we called the minclick

Pot 144
Turn 3♦
V checks
Hero bets 50
V calls.

Here we starting to turn our hand into bluff if villain had overpairs. We still get some value from his fd if that's in his range.

Pot 244
River 3♠
V checks again
Hero has about 210 behind
We follow up with our plan and jam? or just give up?
If we had a value(straights/boats) hand here, what sizing would you choose?

Bluff shove river

Dango, it seems like in a lot of the threads you post, you're only playing 300 deep at 1/3. Are you the effective stack here? Are you buying in for less than the max, or never topping off?

It's hard to play 1/3 with just 300, when the typical opens are going to be over 10, often over 15. If you're able, I'd try to play with the 500 max BI. If 300 is your personal limit on a buy-in, I might consider moving down to 1/2.

As for the hand (grunch):

PRE - Flatting with 99 on the BTN when a loose-passive player opens UTG seems okay. I'd probably still 3B this sometimes, when there's another player who's already called in the middle, especially if I think that player's call is weak.

FLOP - Your 1/3 pot bet when action checks to you seems fine. I might size up here sometimes, when the board is so wet and connected, and unlikely to hit the PFR's range, and our hand benefits so much from protection.

When V1 clicks it back, I definitely wouldn't fold. When V2 folds, I might click this back to $80, with a plan to jam any turn that's an off-suit card below our 9's. If he calls, the pot will be $220, and we'll have $200 left going to the turn - enough to generate some fold equity.

It's just so unlikely that V1 is nutted on this board, and taking this size with his raise, in a multi-way pot, when the board is so wet, and he's OOP. This feels like a stop-raise - he's raising small to scare you out of barreling turn, buying himself a free river card.

Flat-calling is also fine. If the turn is an over-card to our 9's and he bets big, I'd probably be done with it. If he checks an over-card, I might just check back and look to bluff-catch the river.

I'd feel better playing a multi-street game if we were deeper.

I think we could have bet bigger on the turn, or just checked back to bluff catch the river. This 1/3 pot bet doesn't seem like it accomplishes anything. The range you're targeting is likely to be pretty inelastic, and will call a bigger bet.

On the river, I think we're somewhat handcuffed here, as played. We can turn our hand into a bluff and jam, but I think V calls often enough with his over-pairs that a check back is probably okay.

I think a jam here gets through more often if the FDFD comes in. When the flush bricks and the board pairs, it's hard for opponents to lay down an over-pair.

We beat all his busted draws, and none of those hands are calling a jam. If he ever plays 88 this way, or flopped 2P, those are about the only hands we can target for value. It's hard to think he min-clicked the flop with 2P.

If we had thick value here, I'd probably size down, to get called by more of his range, and possibly induce a spaz-raise.

It's not that I think he always calls a jam with his over-pairs, or always folds. I think he ends up tank-calling or tank-folding at varying frequencies having more to do with whatever is going on in his head, and less to do with the story we're telling.

I'm not even sure how many over-pairs he has in this line. It looks a lot like two overs or just a busted draw.

Max buyin is 500
I find myself spewing less playing 300 stacks since I'd be playing alot tighter ranges.
I only top up to 500 if I spot a huge spot at the table.

It's hard to believe he's folding anything that beats you -- unless he's scared money.

But are you playing much tighter ranges? And how are you playing them? It seems like you're playing somewhat passively, and I'm not convinced your ranges are really all that tight.

Like, if you're just waiting for big pairs, fold 99 pre. If you're going to play tight ranges, and 99 is in there, then play it aggressively. If you're just going to set mine, then check back the flop when you don't improve to a set.

It's hard to give you good advice when you're constantly in these situations with in-between hands and lower SPR's. A lot of the hands you post would be easier decisions if you were playing deeper.

Wouldn't V1 be a spot here? V2 sort of seems like a spot too. Most 1/3 games are going to be soft. If the game isn't good, change tables, or just leave and come back another time. You're not forced to sit and play middling hands with a middling stack.

Do you're telling me that if this hand was presented from the OOP perspective with AA, and V bet turn then jammed river you'd say "snap call"? I doubt it.

We bet the turn to start a bluff. The river changes nothing - V doesn't have a ton of sets that boated and he almost never has 3x.

Rip it in and make his life really difficult. A $200 river jam is a lot at a $1/$3.

And no, you'd never jam for value because V is folding. You'd bet like $100.

If V does call with say JJ, then you know in the future you can just jam all value on rivers.

I disagree. Going larger handcuffs is because we don't have enough behind and it isn't like we're ever getting an over pair to fold the turn. If anything, I'd go smaller because we want a call with a wide range.

Similarly, checking to bluffcatch isn't great because Vs at $1/$3 aren't going to bluff enough. He's going to check, and now what?

V is going to call one street. By betting turn we ensure V doesn't have a hand that might double x/r like a set or turned the straight. We cap him at an over pair. And I think we get those to fold often enough. I'd feel better deeper too, but $200 is a big bet for a $1/$3 game. It's an amount that if saved, V will feel like he can keep playing without reloading. I think most $1/$3 players will find the fold with four to a straight and a paired board.