Top Top vs 5x c/raise

Just let it go. The size is large enough that a solver is going to be mixing and we don't really have any cards that improve us OTT. I'd have to have a read that V is particularly aggressive/spewy to continue here. V doesn't sound terribly aggressive.

Reads matter a lot here.

By default, I'm not letting this go. There are lots of draws and it would be hard to contrive a scenario where he has fewer sets and 2 p.

We have raised a limp from the button and are wide and he can usually bluff our asses off on this board so time to take a stand.

IMy guess is we are sort of close between call/jam with these stacks.

One fringe consideration is getting him to fold something like 88 or 99 or the same hand. It could kind of go either way. Maybe he folds those to a jam. Maybe he calls a jam but would check fold some turns.

Does he have the balls to bluff a turned diamond with just a straight draw?

With all this stuff going on, it can't be very wrong to play a turn IP. But I think with this particular stack size I just like all in.

This is a very easy fold without specific reads. Small overpairs have us crushed, draws have tons of equity, and at low stakes this is usually a set which has us nearly dead.

The “mostly limping along” V now overbets the pot 2x. Unless you have a better read, just fold.

What is team fold ever calling with here? Just our own sets and big draws?

It can be correct to make insane exploits if you have a V who just absolutely never bluffs. But it's good to think of the other side.

It sounds like maybe in your games you should be CR bluffing certain players quite a lot.

Big pps, diamond draws, some hands with backdoors galore like A5hh. When V takes this size, we don't have to defend more than about 1/3rd of the time so we should be folding a lot even before we consider population tendency to x/r more value heavy.

Go to war with hands that can improve on the turn, especially when going against someone who has shown passive tendencies and suddenly goes large. TP is basically a bluff catcher here, and it isn't going to improve on any turns. I'd rather have a hand like 75ss that A7.

Thanks for the reply. I'd like to see a reveal.

I think I'd rather block top set than have an overpair, especially on this board. Some people are folding 22 or 44 pre at some point, which would make having a set very hard.

But, I guess there are also people playing 42 and 74 suited. And there are people who just don't bluff.

Interesting point on 75. Nice to possibly pick up a draw. You want him to have 56. However, lots of players would not go this hard with a naked straight draw.

Lots of little trade offs, which is why reads will matter a lot. But I'll still hang on by default.

After one limper limper I'm probably in general going a little bit bigger preflop which may have a better chance at actually isolating. However, at a table where everyone else (i.e. the blinds behind us) are short, I'm not sure I love raising this hand (as it will setup poor small SPRs if one of the shorty blinds call). So I think I prefer an overlimp due to the other stacks, but not gonna hate on a raise.

SPR is 8 so I don't want to stack off with this hand. This guy actually seems a little aggro (due to big preflop raise with junky hand in HH) and I don't want to be put in a stoopid spot. So I'd lean to checking behind on the flop to get to showdown for reasonable bets. Against an ABC face up player I'd be cooler with some bet/folds.

As played, I didn't want to play for stacks and we've now allowed this guy to trivially put them in play, so I sigh fold at this point.

GcluelessNLnoobG

It's better to call with A7 than an overpair blocking value and having 5 outs to improve if V has something like bottom 2. I would pretty much discount overpairs from V's range limping CO unless you've seen him limp with big pockets earlier. With only $168 behind and a pot of $236 if you call, I would play jam or fold on flop. Do we have any reads on V? If you say he hasn't been playing a lot of hands, that pushes me more towards jam as he's less likely to show up with a random 74 or 42. He has 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of 44, 1 combo of 77 for value vs all the diamond draws, 56s, 53s, and worse 7x that could be playing this way.

Wait...are you not sure of your own age? Dafuq is with this estimate that spans two decades? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Grunch:

PRE - they don't limp to fold to a single bet (ETA - at least not a 4BB open over a limp at 1/3, which looks weak AF where I play). A7s is barely good enough to open for a raise on the BTN when they MIGHT fold. When we can be pretty sure they WON'T fold, I just over-limp and hope to smash the flop, or just play a small pot IP.

FLOP - the middle-aged Indian dudes who x/r here are rarely doing it without either having 2P+ or a super-high-equity combo draw, and they'll just check-call those draws at a high frequency.

This type of player has no risk tolerance for variance when they flop value on low-low-low wet & dynamic boards. They do this with thick value, hoping to just take it down. They can't wait to pile money in when they're nutted. They always think we're going to go broke with our over-pairs.

For the future, in spots like this, before you auto-pilot a c-bet, consider what worse hands call and what better hands fold. Is he going to limp call pre and check-fold flop with 88+? Probably not. Is he folding a flush draw here? Probably not. Is he folding a straight draw? Doubtful. Is he folding a set? Never in a million years. Is he folding 66, 55, or 33? Maybe once a lunar cycle.

What IS he folding? Uhm....QTo with no diamonds, and similar trash. If he has any piece of the board, any path to victory, even if it's just a 2-outer or runner-runner, he's not folding to a single bet on the flop.

Yes, if he's not folding almost anything that limp-calls pre on this board, there are a ton of hands we can get value from, right? But he'll also stab turn with almost all those hands if we check back the flop. And you can bet he'll have sizing tells. If he flopped 2P+, expect him to stab HUGE on brick turns. The rest of his range is going to bet small, capping him at something we can make fold by the river.

We can split our range against this type of V, c-betting bigger with our nutted hands and checking back with our SDV. One of my favorite lines is to check back the flop, raise with air when they stab turn for a small size, and then bomb it when they check brick rivers. They'll never bet small and call a turn raise and NOT donk the river when they have it.

This is a fair question.

Speaking for myself, I'm calling or folding exploitatively based on my reads. Here, the read on this V points to a fold with A7ss. So, yeah, I'd obviously continue with sets and big draws. Though I'd feel much better holding 44 or a draw to the nuts than 22. If we have 77 I'm expecting him to go broke with 44/22, or LOL 74/72/42.

If I had more respect for V, I might jam and pray our hand is good and holds against a draw. But it's hard to think of a scenario involving someone I respect limping in from MP, over-calling our raise, and check-raising this flop to $100 with a hand that wouldn't have a ton of equity against A7ss.

I think it's optimistic to think V is check-raising 99/88 or a good draw but will fold to a 3B-jam for another $150, on this board, where we could also have a lot of draws, but won't have many nutted hands.

I can' t imagine V is limp-calling pre and check-raising flop with A7 often enough to raise as a bluff just to fold him off a chop being +EV.

I'd be more inclined to think he might get here this way with 76s / 75s / 73s that flops TP + GSSD.

And yes, I frequently bluff this player type out of their shoes.

Late to the party, but my initial thought was I could do that as villain with a diamond draw (Axs) and try to take it down right now.

However, in your position it feels like one of those traps variance dishes out. I’d have a better feel if I was there, but a limper bets $100 is scary. Let that top pair go.

Solver folks get involved with big blinds as calculations, but in low stakes live it’s mostly the size of the bet to consider. $100 is a big bet on the flop in 1/3 and it implies the rest of the stack is going in.

This would have to be a savvy player to run a check-raise bluff in this spot and forgive me for saying it, but there’s probably no savvy players in a limp fest.

After seeing the K8 hand, I'm tempted to rip it in and pray to the poker gods. It depends on how much you love/hate variance and how comfortable you are buying back in. I see nothing wrong with just sigh folding (never show!).

This is a super standard fold at 1/3. Pre should be at least 15 tho and not cbetting is a huge error in these type of games. Some bad advice given here. A7 is very vulnerable and this is where you want to get your value. You got check raised so just fold. It's whatever. Getting c/r isn't an excuse to not cbet a thick value hand (yes this is thick value otf).