KQo facing double donk - raise?

As a general rule of thumb, when the second donk is small V has a weak/moderate made hand like a weak Ax.

So I definitely want go raise here. We have two options: raise to like $115 expecting a call and then looking to jam river when we miss and go for another $150ish if we hit.

Or we can just pressure the turn hard and raise it up to $200 looking to take it down right now and if we're called we probably have to shut down river.

I prefer the former.

So you keep running into the nuts, but decide to float with a gutshot?

Dude’s got an ace and not going anywhere, so I’m gonna fold.

Maybe some players will go away if you shove right now, but I think it’s an unnecessary risk. You don’t have to win every pot.

If you must play this hand, I would raise the flop and make villain think you have an ace too.

Preflop was fine, a strong play, but this is too weak a hand to float an ace high flop.

If you continue, I think you’ll have to smash the river. You’re not the only one that sees you running bad.

I agree with yami in most cases, but the second donk could be a nutted hand not wanting to run off a customer.

You took a stab and missed. You can get away with a small loss or risk it all in a bad situation.

vs this size bet, raise small and jam river is the standard line with your nut blocker. the goal is to get him to call wide OTT and then fold river, giving you max value. obv you could hit too, which is nice.

i doubt calling is +EV because you have zero implied odds.

PRE - Either over-limp, or raise bigger, to like $40 or even $45. We don't mind just taking down the dead money with KQo.

FLOP - Raise. Don't need to go huge. Maybe make it like $75. Donks when HU are usually BS. We can make him fold by the river.

TURN - As played, I'd definitely raise now. Make it $155 or even $170. We're want him to fear playing for stacks going to the river. Plan to jam any river that doesn't pair the board.

I hate these spots, and I'm in them every day with the loose/passive, "only raise with the nuts but call down w/ AK" players I play with.

You are not getting paid if a club hits the river -- maybe not if a J hits. Flop raise would be interesting if he'll fold a weak A. As played, I would probably go ahead and raise the turn, but before you do, have a plan in case he shoves...

I raise to 200, V shoves for 445 total into what is now 120+200+445=765.... you need 24% to break even..

Well, if you actually have 12 outs you are basically there 😉 I think raising to $200 basically committed you -- maybe that was your thought process?

Good thing we won the last hand. You can't fold. Yell "CAPTAIN CAVEMAN!!!!" as you put your chips in and it doubles your chances of catching a club.

After this many limps at a tarpy limp/raisey table (or even at a table where AK/QQ are drawing hands worth seeing a flop with), I would actually just overlimp preflop. But our raise managed to get this HU in position with initiative to a fairly playable SPR of 7, so nice result if expected.

I'm fine with the flop float in position to this sizing to see what happens on the turn.

Very odd turn barrel by the Villain, imo. Our flop float often looks like a flush draw, so most shutdown with ~TP at this point (heck, even monsters that could improve to boats but don't want to be blown off their hand will often check here). So I'm a little concerned he donked a flush draw on the flop and got there. Think I lean to just taking my good odds and seeing what happens on the river. Although could definitely get on board with semi-bluffing if we read he's weak.

GcluelessNLnoobG

this is why you dont raise the turn big.

He bet 45 what do you want me to make it? 110? At some point a smaller size fails to fold out anything other than some weirdly played PP no ♣ or a trash A no ♣ maybe.. the point of my raise is to get some of that stuff to fold now and then get a hand like AT or or AxJc to fold river... or I could just shove turn 10x

Wish you waited with what happened tbh. Don’t think turn is automatically a raise because of the size and nutblocker but hard to make arguments now that I know what happens.

This hand is an example of why we need to be aware of and thinking about the effective stack depth, and what our plan is for future streets.

When V donks 25 into 70, we could raise small, like 3x, just 75, and still go to the turn with $395 back and just under a 2 SPR with $220 in the pot. That's just about high enough SPR to still have some room to maneuver, and generate a fair bit of fold equity if we jam. The small flop raise isn't enough to pot commit us to calling off if he 3B's.

On the turn, it's getting harder, but we got here with $445 eff and $120 in the pot. When he donks $45, we could raise 3.5x-3.75x, to $155 or $170, and still not be pot committed if he 3B-jams for another $400. Hell, we could raise 3x, to $135, and easily get away from our hand if he 3B's.

Alternatively, since V is doing the betting for us, and he's giving us a cheap price to draw to the nuts, we can just flat call, and put him in the blender if he checks river. Or, we could just over-bet jam the turn and pray he folds or we bink the river.

Some of the problem here stems from our pre-flop action. We have five limps in front of us, and we're opening a middling hand. When we raise KQo, we're bluffing. When we raise post, we're bluffing.

But our raise sizes pre and post aren't big enough to generate the fold equity we need to make them profitable bluffs, and yet they're too big if we want to play a multi-street game while avoiding pot-committing ourselves. We either need to size way up or way down, rather than use these mid bet sizes.

As played, I don't know if he's got a flush and we're drawing to 7 outs, or if he's got 2P or a set and we're drawing to 10 outs. If he's a whale, this could just be JcJx and we have 14 outs.

If he has 2P or a set, we're just barely getting the correct odds to call. If he has a flush, we're basically cooked with just around 15%. If it's JcJx, we're doing pretty well and should be happy to get it in with 34%.

I dunno, man. If the regs are acting like this dude is good for the game, I might give him action. Absent that read, I'd almost always fold, because this line is usually going to be nutted at low stakes.

raising to $100 or so does the same thing except you dont go broke when he overbet shoves.

I like this idea Nitty and giving it more thought. What would cause you to be more inclined to shut out villain on the turn?

Feel like I’m trying to run villain off as quickly as possible when bluffing, but this delayed attack has some appeal. You definitely lose less when v comes over the top.

I guess I’m looking for some guidelines, but any thoughts will be appreciated. Thanks

Maybe just call and draw on the turn.