1/3, Overfold TPGK to Aggression?

Weird one. You don't get any vibe from V?

Not sure I'm ready to fold here, especially given your down-bet on the flop (one reason I'm not thrilled with them -- you don't know if they are raising because you look weak or because they are strong).

just call, V could raise KJ or QJ here and then he won't barrel turn. If he does bet Tuen for a big size, fold.

And yea 25 is too small. 1/3 pot is good but don't go below, makes it harder to know what the raise means. it should look like a normal bet, so 32 or 35 is fine.

sizing is scary but hand is unfoldable. without bdfd u could consider just gii now

your hand around ~75th percentile of your range so would be fairly substantial overfold. i think if you are uncomfortable playing for it you don't need to 3b this hand

I'm a little hesitant to 3bet ~lightish against unknown opponents, especially when we're going to be facing stack committing decisions (where we really need a good handle on what is going on).

SPR is 4 and board isn't that drawy and we have TP2K. Are we cool with committing stacks? Are we cool with bet/folding or uncomfortable doing that against an unknown? These are some of things I would be asking myself on the flop. Until I have a much better understanding of who I'm up against, I think I lean to checking the flop back and making sure I get to showdown. As played, I probably fold. Is this really 99 enough attacking a weak bet by a perceived AK?

GcluelessNLnoobG

3bet is good. Cbet is good and sizing. Now call. Don't fold flop or check back flop.

Hero calls

A flop check-raise on a static J-high board is mostly underbluffed, so this may have been a mistake. I don’t really have anything on this guy except that he looks very comfortable, no signs of worry.

(260) Turn Jd8s5c-Qc

Confidently and without hesitation
Villain bets 110 leaving him with about 120 behind.

Hero?

Against an unknown who seems that confident, I guess we just have to let it go and try to learn more about him as the game goes on. T9 got there, QJ got there -- he might have already had AJ or QQ?

+1

If he has 76, nice hand.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Now you fold and you played the hand perfect imo. As far as turns go, Qx is the worst one.

Bet/calling with mediocre hands is extremely meh, imo. We'd be far better off checking back the flop, keeping his range incredibly wide, and meanwhile realizing our showdown value / equity with an underepped for often the same price that it just cost us to do neither.

GimoG

Late to the party, but disagree with those criticizing the size. If the size inspires V to 3! bluff, good. I think at these stakes few are calling as wide as they should vs this size and fewer are xr as wide as they should. I don't think AJ is xring here.

When we call, we're mostly going to continue turn if V slows down. He didn't despite a scary card and we're nowhere near deep enough to consider bluffing off whatever hand he loves pretending to have a straight. So into the muck it goes

Fold the turn now, Q is one of the worst cards. GG is being extremely results oriented here. We know you wouldn't 3bet or even call pre dude, but when you do this is a slam dunk cbet.

I'd feel a lot happier calling flop with AJ, but when opponent shouldn't have any two pairs (albeit there are no flush draws) it's a bit early to fold. Turn fold looks OK. Preflop and flop cbet look good.

Agree with calling the flop raise and folding to the turn barrel. The Q hits many of his flop bluffs, T9, QT, Q9, etc.

If the turn was a total blank, like a 2 or something, I think you have to be willing to continue against some opponents. This is when you earn your massive win rate by exploitatively folding to the nits and being willing to stack off against aggressive opponents. While it might be under bluffed by population, there are still lots of natural bluffs on this board.

Reveal
Jd8s5cQc
The turn card was brutal hitting so much of his range, not just T9, but KQ, QJ, QT

I think solvers call more than humans expect, so I don’t know what they think of this spot.

But Hero folds and villain shows QJ two pair.

I question myself on everything in this hand.
Maybe had no business raising pre - but it seemed standard. Probably should have folded to the check-raise, but I was ahead at that point. Made the correct fold when villain kept coming on the turn, but should I even be there?

Don't really understand why; you got all the money in while you're better and then got out as soon as you were worse; results suggest you played perfectly. I'd make a note that Villain raises with mediocre top pairs (but also include that your bet was small because that may have mattered); that's the most noteworthy thing about the hand.

If this makes you feel better, here is a preflop chart showing GTO mixes raises and calls preflop. So your raise was solver approved.

I think you played the hand great. Poker is just hard, and it's natural to question yourself in close spots.

GTO Wizard is mixing in folds OTT with KJ to a 1/3rd potsized bet, and that's vs an opponent that never has QJ here (QJ doesn't x/r flop). So folding is definitely solver approved. Though I don't think that really matters because Vs aren't continuing to barrel at all often enough, we should overfold this spot relative to solvers because our opponents aren't finding solver level aggression when an overcard comes OTT. V isn't continuing to barrel with 97, 65, A5, 33, AJ etc.

If V is calling a 3! pre with QJ, then you can, and should, be 3!ing KJ. When the money went in you were way ahead and IP. An unlucky card came out, and V bet big enough to let you off the hook. The cards could have been face up the whole time, and you shouldn't have done anything differently.

If V turned his cards face up pre flop, would you have 3!? Of course you would - you're way ahead.

Would you have bet the flop? Of course, you're way ahead.

Would you have called the x/r? Of course, you're way ahead. (3!ing would be a mistake if cards were face up because QJ probably folds, and you want V to keep barreling on most turns)

Would you have folded the turn? Of course, you're now way behind.

So yeah, you played as if you could see your opponents cards. Put money in when you're ahead, and not 1BB in when you were behind. You should feel really good about that. Sometimes you can play perfectly and you still lose.

I'm not being results oriented. A flop check back basically guarantees we get to the river to realize our equity and showdown our hand, which is a good thing. A flop bet does not guarantee that and prevents us from realizing equity / showing down at a much higher rate than a check back does.

Gnothatin',justsayin'G

Where/when does generating value enter into this equation? Where do you think we can make most of our money if we elect to bet. Flop, turn or river?

There's 3 postflop streets we can get money from with a hand that mostly doesn't want 3 bets going in. We don't have to get it all on the flop, and showing weakness on the flop may get us money on the later streets that a bet wouldn't have.

But mostly my response is with regards to checking back versus bet/folding versus bet/calling. I'm not exactly sure when bet/calling began becoming the du rigueur play with mediocre hands, but at LLSNL it's in a solid third place for me.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think KJ is better than mediocre on this board. I think it's right near the bottom of a potential flop small bet value range. Would you be checking back AJ? QQ? I would probably mostly be checking back with QJ and betting KJ, so I think it's right near the margin but I think a bet is fine.

We benefit from protection on a board with so many potential straight draws/gutshots and dangerous overcards.

Also low limit opponents tend to check raise less often, so oftentimes we can actually control the size of the pot more effectively by keeping our range uncapped and keeping the betting lead. If they're not raising enough as a bluff then sure, we can exploitatively bet/fold flop. Against appropriately aggressive opponents we can't be folding top pair second kicker to a single check raise though.

I'm not really sure how checking back really makes things any easier on us anyway. Are we any better off if we check back and face a turn overbet? We're pretty much in the same boat.

More commonly the flop goes bet/call or bet/fold. We avoid giving a free card to all the various hands with like 20 or 30% equity that fold to a flop bet. We get called by a lot of worse pairs and draws that are behind, so there's value to be gained.

Not that I'm saying there is really anything wrong with checking back KJ on the flop. I think it's at least a toss up though, and there's nothing wrong with betting.

Agreed. I was hoping you'd answer me where you think we can get away with betting the most(frequency not size) and get the widest calls. I don't disagree with the second part, just challenging the notion that this is a prime check back candidate.

Not really sure how to answer this. I barely see people bet/calling mediocre hands on these forums but perhaps I have to pay more attention. I'd certainly argue you're wrong for putting bet/calling in third place. Bet/folding is the worst option, that I don't think is close at all.