JJ in UTG Four-Way

Assuming it checks to me from V3 in BB, I think I bet $20 here.

Can get calls from 1p hands of V1/V2, and we're ahead of all single-pair Tx as well as pair plus straight draws. I would be a little concerned about V3 in BB and his combos of T8/86/97/66, but we'll find out pretty quickly, as I'd assume he's raising those in this spot when back around to him, not wanting to lose value if the flush comes in on turn.

Does H have Jd?

I hate giving free cards on T86dd with JJ, but the Pro can easily put you in the blender with a x-bomb. We might have some backdoors be relevant on the turn, and H is deep this time (congrats!) with minimum SPR still 8.5-1.

I want to x-call, but I think checking might be dumb with Jacks, specifically. OTOH, why bloat this vs two LPs who won't fold? Voting for check. Let's see what the other two Vs do.

& OMG is that rake awful. From 61 to 49 in an eyeblink. And you haven't even tipped yet!

I'd limp in.

SPR is 9+ so we definitely don't want to commit. With calling stations in the hand (which also handcuffs the pro from getting too out-of-line), I'd probably just bet/fold safe runouts.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Tricky spot. You definitely don't want to go three streets with this, and being OOP isn't pleasant, and BB can easily put pressure on you, but on the other hand you have an overpair on a wet board Vs two calling stations. I would bet now and check later. If BB comes along for the ride I'd check turn, if BB folds you might want to barrel turn. Facing a BB check-raise you might have to lay it down depending on sizing and whether you have Jd etc.

I would check this flop.

Hero had black JJ

I bet at least $30. Let the stations station. A "pro" who called from BB and checked should not have too much to put the pressure on unless he's bluffing or drawing -- let him.

If you are not comfortable facing pressure, I can understand a check -- it's not a great flop against station-y players.

Results (delayed by work):

Hero with JJ opens 15 UTG. V1 calls LJ, V2 calls HJ, SB folds, V3 pro calls BB. Four-way.

Flop (49): Td8d6c

Hero? Hero checks. V1 checks. V2 bets 40. V3 calls. Hero folds. V1 folds.

Turn/River bricks, Vs check to the river. V2 shows 77.

What was your thought process behind xfolding? Honestly seems like a bigger and more consequential decision than flop. I don't think you can xfold this spot without a strong read. You are ahead of a lot of hands here.

Sorry, but I'm never check/folding here -- that's the worst option.

Next time don't give results as it may influence responses.

I don't hate checking the flop (although prefer bet/folding against calling stations) but I don't see how we can fold to a bet yet. There's a crapload of worse hands / draws that could be betting when weakly checked to. Not in love facing the large bet into the world, but I think we have to at call at least once and see what develops.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Sorry to post results too soon. I realize they bias the analysis.

I checked the flop because it was four way, and I was oop. I folded because V2 made a large bet, and the V3 the pro called. I doubted my JJ had enough equity against the ranges of V2 and V3.

I so appreciate your posts, and they are great to analyze, but you seem to be playing scared money. You might want to move down to 1/2 (I think that is an option for you?) or build up your bankroll some other way so that the money means very little -- it's only chips. I know that's easier said than done! Took me a while.

In general, it's not a terrible decision to fold to aggression at low stakes. But in this spot, you took a weak action that could induce bluffs, you beat many potential value bets like AT, and your opponents have a lot of draws and other bluffs in range that will bet the flop when checked to. I don't think fold is good. I would sooner XR than fold here. As I alluded to earlier, I think the decision point after checking and facing the $40 bet is more interesting than the initial flop decision, where all options are reasonable and have roughly equal merits.

I also wouldn't dwell on the fact that V3 is a "pro" who plays higher stakes as a reason to exercise caution. The line that he took here (flat pre, flat big flop bet, check down something that can't beat third pair) looks like a fish line to me.

Agree that just because they’re waiting for 2/5 doesn’t mean they’re a pro.

Just hard for me to fathom.
Having an overpair to AT, JT etc
Nobody pays attention to flop bets - that’s just testing the waters, not a good spot to fold.

This is different from facing a 4Bet

Don’t know what kinda bricks they were, but with some cards you could apply pressure

Then, they check it down….

There is no good way to play Jacks perhaps, but don’t do this again.

When GG is telling you not to fold....

Flop: Lead, we have the best hand almost always, there are a ton of weak draws and you're playing "calling stations". Let stations station.

AP, at minimum it's a call. There's FDs, SDs, and we beat all 1p hands. Raising is definitely an option because we can be confident BB doesn't have 2p+ (he'd have raised with so many draws). So we only need to worry about HJ, but he bet last to act, so he is pretty wide with a lot of 1p hands. If we raise and he 3!s we can fold. If he calls, we can be nearly certain we're best on future streets that brick.

Normally this is a check by default.

But you have 2 stations behind, this is the easiest bet for value, for at least 1/2 pot imho. If anyone raises snap fold.

We are barreling big non fd non st8 turns for value.

When we have fishes, we have to take them to valuetown by all means. Last thing we want is to check/call or check/fold vs them.

move down

This is the lowest stake?????

I knew what NOM meant... Basically, increase your liferoll a bit if you can, OP, because your excessive caution is sounding like it's -EV.

Yami, what size are you leading for here? After thinking about it a bit, I was wondering if something around b33 might be best, and jam over the pro if they get feisty with a raise. Ldo fold if one of the other two raise.

Also wondering if peeling or bombing over this bet is best? TT/88 should all be solidly in our range, and a station easily could be betting Tx for this size.

We're pretty deep and I think a lot of hands are going to be super inelastic. Axdd, T9, AT, QJdd, KQdd, 87, 76, 99, 77 are all going to call at least one bet. So I'd probably lead big, like $50. And if we do run into a monster like a set, I think we're going to hear from it and can just fold.

I don't think we really want to incentivize V3 to raise semi-bluffs, because its a really good flop for him and he should have more nutted hands than us. If V has a hand like K9dd, we're behind we don't really want to get the money in OTF and we aren't that far ahead if he has a naked FD with one over. So if V3 is x/ring sets, 2p and Ax/Kx/Qx/9x flush draws we're in really bad shape against that range.

I think we want V to x/r sets and 2p and flat with most if not all his FDs. I think $50 does that because V will figure we can have a huge draw or overpair and just want to pile money in with sets, but with his FDs, he has to worry about us having a set or 2p and should opt to flat and try to realize his equity. (Especially if one of the stations calls behind). So I think betting bit with the plan to b/f is probably best.

Check and evaluate.

Don't fold.

It's just too weak to fold at this point. Our opponents' ranges have lots of worse hands.

The reason we check is that in a multi-way way pot, especially on a wet board, our opponents are going to make more betting mistakes when we check, and not nearly as many calling mistakes when we bet.

Yes, I understand the players behind us are calling stations. But even calling stations will tighten up a bit in multi-way pots. And we have a pro with an uncapped range on our right. It would suck to c-bet, get called by one or both calling stations, and then get x/r'd by the pro.

This board texture is likely to get stabbed when we check and have two loose opponents behind us. It puts the pro in a difficult spot when we check and one of the stations stabs at it, and we're still in the hand. It's hard for him to structure bluffs correctly.

We're deep enough to call the flop and see what happens on the turn. Our hand has too much showdown value to fold yet.