$5 10 Deep Mono Punt or Genius Move

I don't play this big so take what I say with grain of salt.

V can't have A7?
What do we rep if we raise?

I like your flop cbet size but what is it that you were trying to do?

I thought we have a showdown hand w/A high? Ages ago like all the online highstakes players were checking back A high to go to showdown btn vs blinds or even in HU poker. I have no clue how ppl play nowadays w/A high, I assume it should be similar?

The river raise seems crazy?? 575 to win 195???
I guess we trying to rep boats???

All our big hands get here like this, if there was ever a hand to do it with this is it.

I don’t like checking back the turn, because now any club in his hand looks good to him.

At least for me, it’s important to know how Hero is perceived along with the description of villain.

If you bet 75 on the turn, would villain still think he’s good here.

Anytime you make a big overbet, it’s likely to be good, but that doesn’t mean it’s the best play.

What is he telegraphing with this 75 bet size?
Could that be a ‘no club’ stab?

A winning reg has learned to make big folds, so this may be a good play.

If I’m villain, I would not expect you (though I know nothing about your style) to jam with the nuts, you’d be milking it instead. It looks like someone without a club.

I will never criticize aggression, you can’t win without it. In this spot however, if I was you I would just call the 75 and hope aces are good. And if I was villain, I would call with any club.

I see flaws in a story that is not strong enough to bet the turn, but is strong enough to play for stacks.

AA/KK is my guess. Both are going to bet pf large (4x) on BU if H splits their sizing by value rather than position, both are going to get gunshy on a monotone flop, albeit both should bet more than b16, and both would x back a 4-flush board turn that gave AA a set, and hope they bink. Probably much more likely AA would do that than top set on the flop.

It's a convincing story. I'd fold lower flushes to that line. Hope it got through.

The very small flop bet looks hero is stabbing with air. I would make a regular cbet to 40. Play like you have AA, KK, or AK.

I don’t like the check back on the turn. I would bet 3/4 pot. If you are willing to make a huge river bluff, why not just bluff the turn for far less?

As played, you have only a bluff catcher. Just call the river. After hero checked back the turn, V calls with most Xc. Why the super high variance big raise? V knows you do not have a flush or boat.

A lot of winning regs probably became winning regs in part by snapping off bluffs like this, but I don’t play 5-10.

Good in theory.

On it's face, it looks good given reads, but I feel like reads in this sub are intended to justify the line taken and I smell a "How can he call" post.

Even putting that aside, people's biggest leak is inelasticity, so getting them to properly adjust their fold range to the size and relative strength of the board tends to be a big ask, and even a usual pushover with a face up range might find a call with a broadway flush+FH blocker 25%+ of the time (especially if you're the type of player with the type of reputation players who are capable of this move generally have). The fact that he CCed a 4bb open in the SB is already raising alarm bells that this guy can't be relied on to do things he obviously should.

Grunch:

PRE - Seems okay to raise almost ATC when action folds to us on the BTN. I might not bother if the blinds defend too much. I don't mind just folding and moving onto the next hand.

Is it normal for him to flat in the SB? Seems weird for a winning reg to do that. Is he on the loose-passive side? What sort of range is that?

FLOP - Betting 1/6 pot on a monotone flop doesn't seem terrible on the surface, but if our range pre is ATC, I wonder if we're not supposed to be doing a lot of checking back here.

TURN - kinda starting to get weird when the Ac appears. Since we don't block any flush combos, and he could have the Qc, I guess check back and pray he doesn't lead the river for a gross size.

RIVER - I think I'd be discounting him having boats / quads here, when he doesn't 3B pre, x/r the flop, or lead for a larger size on the river. This block-bet sizing suggests a hand that doesn't want you to check back or bet huge, and will likely bet-fold.

If you're literally opening ATC on the BTN, you could have 24-28 combos of boats / quads, depending on whether or not you're betting A7o on the flop.

It's kind of an obvious spot for us to turn a lot of hands into bluffs. I'd be concerned a lot of our lower flushes wouldn't be good here, so I'd be thinking about turning anything that blocks boats and can't beat a flush into a bluff. Definitely doing this with AK.

I'd think the worst hand he ever leads here would be Jc, and maybe only Qc. He very likely has the one card that we're very unlikely to have when we check back the turn, making this tricky for him.

We're probably never turning worse flushes into a bluff, and our line is pretty consistent with 2P/set that got bailed out on the river.

I guess bluff him out of his shoes.

Yeah, this is why I don't typically pull the trigger on big bluffs in spots like this. It looks like the correct play, but V has to be able to lay down a flush, and so, so, so, so many can't.

Always interesting to ask V after the hand what he does if you raise huge. Often enough they'll say, "snap call", which is usually BS. Sometimes they'll raise their eyebrows and say, "I dunno, depends on how big you go." But then when you actually raise huge, they still call.

Villian is a reg. Imagine you are his shoes with Qc or Jc.

You view Hero to be a pro player capable of moves.

How often do you call as Villian.

I’m pretty sure V has the Jc, and I’ll guess he made the 75 river stab hoping to provoke a bluff from AK.

H would’ve bet the Qc on the turn. That weird rinky dink flop bet would rule out AA, 2P or esp a set for me, and put me in “if he’s got A7 he’s got it” mode.

But I don’t play 5-10.

And we have been given no information about what V might think about H, or what their history is. (Oops, I guess we have some now! 😀 )

We do know that H is exhibiting some signs of FPS in the OP.

As played, I call the river every time.

I would’ve bet out 200 on the turn and xc the river.

It doesn't matter what I would do. I'd snap fold against a typical player, but I'd also play a lot of boats this way postflop and never play anything this way preflop. (And there's no indication you're a typical player anyway.)

I think a lot of players in this game have a completely different decision flow from mine. The fact that they have a broadway flush means they have a candidate to bluff catch (especially if it has a pair to the board blocker with it) and the big raise would make them think you're polarized, and so already this means they're not going to auto-pilot fold.

Then their bluff catching flow is a bunch of "Do I have history with this guy", "Is he FPSy", "Am I still mad about the flop micro bet", "Does he look nervous, " and that flow can produce a positive 25%+ of the time.

I'm not confident in any of this BTW. Just ran a filter for my last 200k hands online for regs facing R200, and there's only a 27 hand sample and they fold close enough to what they're supposed to I don't think there's anything to glean one way or the other. (And wouldn't be conclusive anyway because I'd expect online regs to overfold because they're more disciplined and their opponent would have to be capable of making moves like this with a balanced range to bother calling with anything short of the nuts.)

If the fact that this is good in theory is good enough for you, then that's honestly probably more solid than anything I've said in my posts. (Though looking at it, it looks like 7x is actually preferred for this play.) If you're good at forming reliable and unbiased reads on your opponents, then by all means make the play based on that too.

If this is a "How can he call" post in disguise, then here's your answer.

Well, the stab provoked a bluff from A8 so why wouldn’t it provoke a bluff from AK? If you’re implying that Hero plays the flop K73ccc & turn Ac differently with AKo than A8o, I say there’s no proof of that, based on the…unusual…way A8o was played.

BTW I don’t play online so what does R200 mean? Hero raised $500 on the river.

I don't get into a lot of these spots as either H or V at lower stakes. Most of the lower stakes player pool isn't capable of making this bluff as H, or folding Qc/Jc as V.

They don't use 1/6 pot c-bet sizes. They'll give up on the turn with ace-rag and over-fold to the river donk.

The ones who are capable of finding this line or making this fold tend to stand out. So this could be a sigh-call against certain V's, when it's usually just a snap fold.

As for the ones who are able to make this fold, I don't know how often they're flatting from the SB. They'd have to be a MUBSy fish, someone who plays loose-passive on early streets but tight-passive when facing late street aggression.

The best I can offer is that as V, this would usually be a snap-fold or tank-fold. Against known to be capable opponents, it's a tank-table-read that might end up a call.

If your V sits there thinking "I'm at the top of my range", or just "I'm not good enough to fold the nut flush", don't be shocked if he calls.

V of course could have A7 himself

I guess I just don’t understand higher stakes:

Rarely playing (Ax offsuit) in most games even from the button.
Villain calling from the SB is a weak play
Checking back the turn?
Cruising thru the streets with nothing and then big bluffing on the end (don’t know effective stacks) is beyond me.
Not many clubs folding the river at 1/3

The only reason I can agree with your play is that you are exploiting this player and aren’t worried about logic. It’s a game of chicken and you expect him to back down. I do this

If you’re simply doing it because it’s the only way you can win the pot, I don’t like it.

I used to see this bluff kind of line a lot 2010-2015 and called it off a lot too.
It only works as a bluff if people have seen you show up with the absolute nuts in spots like this before.

I thought overbets got popular after solver came around.

Tom Dwan did it pre solver but he was an exception.
I remember everyone back then was sizing their bets to make river shove less than pot size. Ie. pot flop then 3/4 turn then 3/4 shove river instead of nowadays 1/3 3/4 then 1.5xjam river.

this is not even close to the line OP took though
"your bet size plus large round arbitrary denomination" on the river in an otherwise weakly played pot is a line a lot of aggro villains would take 10 years ago as a bluff and I built a bankroll calling those raises down close to 100% of the time

if he is a winning player then you must have some hours in with him, which means he also has some hours in with you. Can he view you as overly aggressive? constantly going after pots? if so..he can show up on this river with Qc, Jc, probably 87s, 76s, 33 can also have AxTc, AJc as you indicated he calls too much pre ( calling too much means he doesnt 3b enough for this player type right?) i think you could accomplish the same thing with less money. could very likely raise to 400 and get him to fold everything but a weirdly played Qc or he might hero with a 7. You checked back the turn so he will have 7x.