Bink top set vs whale

im confused you say just sat down with 500 ( 500 cap) then you say your eff stack with 770 in the sb which is it

also what is a quasi-TAG

do you have history with V1 these are very pigeon hole specific reads

going off what your said, if he plays very face up and is very sticky, just bet 150 on flop and fold to raise, his bluffs wouldnt make sense so we can assume he only raises when we are beat and he is sticky so he will call with any pair, sd, fd.

turn - he will have flushes and straights - its 100 to win 430 so we need around 20%, which we likely have, so flat and take a river.

im confused you say just sat down with 500 ( 500 cap) then you say your eff stack with 770 in the sb? which is it?

also what is a quasi-TAG?

do you have history with V1 these are very pigeon hole specific reads

going off what your said, if he plays very face up and is very sticky, just bet 150 on flop and fold to raise, his bluffs wouldnt make sense so we can assume he only raises when we are beat and he is sticky so he will call with any pair, sd, fd.

turn - he will have flushes and straights - its 100 to win 430 so we need around 20%, which we likely have, so flat and take a river.

im confused you say just sat down with 500 ( 500 cap) then you say your eff stack with 770 in the sb which is it

also what is a quasi-TAG

do you have history with V1 these are very pigeon hole specific reads

going off what your said, if he plays very face up and is very sticky, just bet 150 on flop and fold to raise, his bluffs wouldnt make sense so we can assume he only raises when we are beat and he is sticky so he will call with any pair, sd, fd.

turn - he will have flushes and straights - its 100 to win 430 so we need around 20%, which we likely have, so flat and take a river.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine. I might have sized up a smidge with the 3B size when it seems likely we'll get at least one caller, to like $125, but $100 is fine.

FLOP - Meh board. Checking is fine, and probably preferable, when V is calling so wide pre, and the board is so wet and connected.

I'd expect him to bet his strong but vulnerable hands for a big size, and semi-bluff his good draws for a small size. He might also bet some worse value for a smaller size.

There might be an argument for c-betting for value, but if we go bet-bet-bet I think we end up value-owning ourselves often enough.

If we're going to c-bet, and if we think V isn't going to raise very often, either for value or a bluff, I might bet around $75, and if he calls, check-evaluate turn, expecting him to stab a lot when it looks like we're giving up.

TURN - Interesting spot.

When V checks back flop, I'm discounting 2P+ from his range, and probably also spade draws, so he's pretty capped getting to the turn.

I'm not sure if it makes more sense to bet out or check again. I guess bet, but my hunch is this guy is going to either have air that will fold, or some piece of the board that will pay off a bigger bet, so I think we could probably bet $200-$250, setting up a less than PSB jam for the river.

When you bet $50, I think you might be inducing V to raise with a lot of his range, and who knows if he's semi-bluffing with a draw or just spaz-raising with something stupid. That 3x raise size is what bad recs think is "standard", but it's also a size a lot of opponents will use when bluffing. They tend to get more greedy when the pot is small, they have a real hand, and the board is connected.

It's a weird spot because if we 3B, he's probably mostly folding everything that isn't a really good draw, or something surprisingly strong, but I don't know what that could be, unless he was slow-playing something on the flop.

So, I want to 3B, but the SPR is awkward, so I think I'd prefer to just jam, targeting any 2P or sets he might have, or draws that just have to see the river.

If he snaps you off with a straight or a flush, pray the poker gods take a shine to you, and pair the board on the river.

I'll admit this type of game (wild and we're the "shortstack" at 260bbs) isn't the typical game I find myself in midday during the week, so a little out of my comfort / knowledge zone.

Love our LRR plan (think anything else is beyond stoopid at this type of table, but that's me, ldo). I like offering poor 8:1 if I'm going to setup SPRs where it is unlikely I'll be able to fold postflop, which means a sizing of about $115, so about what we did. We know these guys are never folding so I'd go as large as possible.

SPR is 3 and we've got an overpair on a drawy board against a whale, so obviously committed and never folding. Against someone described as fairly non-bluffy and extremely sticky, think I would just bet large to setup a turn shove. Actually don't hate a shove at this SPR versus this opponent. A little too FPS checking this, imo, and giving up a free card that could lose us a hugenormous pot would be a monstrous mistake.

Kinda stoopid turn card as every draw got there, but I'd still probably just bet large to get stacks in by the river. Not in love facing a raise but we're never folding top set, you'd think he would sometimes semi-bluff some draws on the flop, he could have worse value, we suckout a lot if behind, etc., so I just sigh shove now.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I don't understand why you're checking flop on a draw heavy board against a whale who is very sticky postflop and doesn't bluff much? Bet relatively big to set up a turn shove. He's probably calling you with any Q, any T and any decent draw, at least.

As played I'm calling the turn raise, and probably just checking every river. If you improve to a full house, C/R all in. If you don't improve I would check/evaluate. More than likely check/call a moderate bet and check/fold vs an all in bet. That's assuming his bet sizes generally represent the strength of his hand.

Hey Banana, Hero stack size is 770, not 500, right? SPR on the flop is 3.3. With AA on a wet board, I just jam the flop. AP, jam the turn. I’m calling the turn raise and check-calling the river.

We JUST sat down as in 30 minutes ago and are up 270$ to 770$ from our 500$ BI. I'm not betting flop because the flop is unfavourable for us and V will advertise the strength of his hand by either betting or checking back...

Your SPR is about 2.9 on the flop. The chances are high you are way ahead of the loose whale. It is a board with draws, but you are only behind QQ/TT/88/QTs/T8s, unless he is calling the limp/3! with real junk. I would cbet fairly large and shove most turns.

Might not always be the best play but jamming flop is easy and fun.

Is the huge overbet better than like 2/3 pot cbet and jam turn?

Result:

If you bet flop there's a good chance you stack him. Against a sticky whale you're typically going to be better off just betting your strong hands yourself. The main reason for checking flop is to give him a chance to bluff with hands that would fold if you bet, but you said he doesn't bluff much.

I’m not sure. Both have merits. A lot of turns are gonna force us to check fold. Shoving flop both pushes equity and denies what could be high equity draws while removing our positional disadvantage. We can balance this with big draws.

I think your decisions to check flop and ultimately 3B-jam turn are both fine, with the reads, as played.

V raised, and then called our somewhat chunky limp-3B. He should have a "real" hand getting to the flop.

He could have all the flopped sets. If he's really a whale, he might have all the 2P or even a straight. Yeah, we can get value from a lot of hands if we c-bet, but there are a lot of bad run-outs, and if we don't improve or get downgraded, we won't love our options.

Once he checks back, I'd think he's pretty capped.

Turning a set that also brings in a flush and Broadway is an interesting spot. I might use that really small bet size with a nutted hand or a hand I was planning to bet-fold if V raises. I don't like it with a hand like top set.

We probably wouldn't expect him to check back the flop with very much of his QX. I wouldn't think he'd check back flop with 2P+. Not sure about draws, or PP's like 9s9x or JsJx that also have a combo draw, or AT, but if he's passive, he might check these back.

I'd think his value range on the turn is pretty capped - maybe 99 or JJ, maybe some TP with the case ace, maybe occasionally AT for 2P, and occasionally maybe KJ or some spade combo that just got there, plus a bunch of hands that are going to fold if we breathe on the pot.

If that's the range we're giving him, I'd think that the portion of his range that will call a bet is likely to be pretty inelastic, and will call a much larger bet.

If we bet pot or slightly more than pot, I don't think he's folding 2P, or a pair + combo-draw. If he calls with a straight or flush, we're not drawing dead. If we bet $200-$250 and he jams, I think we'll be getting around 2:1 pot odds.

If he's not betting flop with 2P/sets or 1P + a draw, then it's possible he'd jam those hands on the turn. He might jam AT, or KsQx / QxJs. I'd think there are enough worse hands he could jam, and we have enough equity to improve when we're behind, that I'd probably call it off.