Getting crushed by loose passives

So it's 300 to win a final pot of 840. You need 35%.

If he has full combos of J8 and 86 then that's 32 combos of hands that beat you. You just need to find half as many that you can beat to make this a profitable call.

Full combos of T9 are 9 hands.

You'll need 7-10 more combos of:
- Pocket 4's
- 43ss
- Slow played overpairs
- Bricked draws turned into bluffs. (Lots of 8x hands and flush draws here.)

I think you can find a call here. But it's thin.

Gotta bet the flop bigger though. At least $25. People won't read that like a typical overbet because the pot is just so small to begin with. It will look like any other normal post-flop bet that probably happens all the time at this table. Board is wet enough you can expect action, especially multi-way. could even go to like $40 depending on the table dynamics and players involved.

You hit your hand on the flop, get some money in there - especially with this wet board. You can’t have 4 of these passive players going to the turn, maybe make it $35.

This is 2nd hand I have looked at recently where villain comes alive when a 4 hits the turn. It doesn’t coordinate with the rest of the board and looks like villain has 44.

Is villain so passive that he could flop a straight and wait until the turn to bet?

I don’t know what he has, but he doesn’t expect us to be this strong. He thinks he’s strong, but you may be stronger. You have evidence of villain overplaying a hand. Call

I’d rather take a beat, than fold - the problem is that when you start talking yourself into folding big hands at 1/3, you’re usually leveling yourself.

Your bet size OTF ought to be much bigger. You have a monster and are up against 5 players who like to call a lot. Tons of your opponents' hands will be inelastic to your bet size and will call $25 just as often as they call $10.

OTT we see a total brick and we are 5 ways. Typically at 1/3, raises on the turn indicate TONS of strength. However, in this instance there are a couple things that make me think he may not be as strong. He just called your flop bet. In a 5 way pot with a flop this wet and dynamic I don't think he is likely to just call with a straight or a higher set. He would want to "protect it" by thinning the field. Also, I'm not sure you interpreted his play in your HH very well. With KK he bet big OTT OOP with 1 pair after being shown aggresion by a flop raise. Then after his large turn bet gets called, he shoves the river with his 1 pair. He made these 2 large bets without being "strong" in any sort of relative sense. This makes me think that he overvalues good hands. You also bet small twice into a lot of players. I think that a player who over values good hands might think he is doing this for value OTT with a weaker hand. (Flopped 2 pair that he didn't raise OTF because he was scared. AT that he thinks might be good with nobody showing much aggresion so far. Maybe JJ if he's the sort of retiree who limps basically everything from EP.)

OTR I don't think that B/F or C/F are viable. We are very strong against someone who is willing to put in his stack with a non nutted hand. Perhaps this isn't consistent with my thoughts about his KK HH, but in this hand I think he is much more likely to call with worse than he is to bet with worse. I like a shove here. I think he's calling your 1.25x pot shove with about the same frequency as he would if you made a smaller bet. He's already put in $100 and didn't come to casino to fold strong hands.

x/r the flop may be better as you are OOP and this board is likely to be bet. As other mentioned, you can go at least pot in a limped pot at 1/3, particularly on a fairly wet board.

You are behind J8s and 86s and higher sets. They may not all play the hands which make straights and they might raise 99 or TT preflop, but who knows with these limpers.

If I could go back in time and literally just fold 100% of everything that wasnt the stone nuts when facing aggression on the turn or river I think i'd be up several hundred thousand dollars. We know V overplays hands when he raises, what we dont know is what he does when he limps. A lot of players like to "wait for a safe turn" before getting it in with the flop nuts.

You've got to call river. With the pot odds being offered you only have to be good 1/3 of the time.

You beat potential value hands that the described villain could play this way (mainly 2 pair). There are also a fair amount of missed draws on this board that could be bluffing (spades, 8x, QJ, maybe even 65).

In poker it's important to get comfortable calling for your whole stack when the pot odds dictate, even in spots where you'll lose more than half the time.

So the consensus in the comments is I should call, with only one dissenting opinion. It also seems like I should be betting more on these spots. There’s so much In the replies I would like to comment on and I’ll try to do my best.

In the V HH I think I should have mentioned that this was the only hand I saw V play. I had him more of an OMC who had a tough loss. The commenters here see him as someone who overvalued his hand. Maybe I’m wrong.

What hands would V flat the flop and then raise the turn.? I think Javi had it right where V was waiting for a safe turn to get money in. Maybe he was waiting for someone behind to raise. Maybe he limped with aces wanting to back raise. And things didn’t work as planned. My small bets and no aggression behind may have led V to think one pair is good.

How passive was this table? I saw several times where players limped with kings, queens, jacks, AK and AQ. V though did raise with his big pocket pair.

Does math really matter at these stakes? How often do players put their whole stack at risk running a bluff? Especially after being stacked off earlier?

For the people saying I should call. Does a turn shove make more sense than calling turn?

I folded. V said he missed, then asked me if I was on spades, then said that he was on spades but didn’t show. I believed him at first. But the rest of the night I noticed he was playing conservatively and thought he was lying about his hand. If he was bluffing most players show their hand so they get called when they do have it. Also why ask me if I had spades if he was on spades? After reading the comments here I’m thinking maybe I did fold a winner.

I think if V wanted to tell the truth he would probably tell you the exact cards he had, not just "spade draw" or, "I missed" as this makes it harder to get caught lying by someone who has one of the cards he says. That said, it's still possible but I would lean toward he had you beat.
I don't go to the casino to fold sets but maybe this is a good fold. You have to go with your gut and table reads on this one.
Is it possible he had T9s or JJ? A semi bluff that got there with 65s? From observation you'd have the best perspective.

PRE - seems fine. Occasionally might raise huge here, but mostly just calling to set mine.

FLOP - just checking to let someone in the field stab at it, then deciding how I want to respond based on whatever. I don't like c-betting into multiple people from OOP on such a wet and dynamic board, with a hand that may or may not be best but is vulnerable and unlikely to improve. I'd rather check and see what my opponents do.

TURN - yeesh. I don't like it when V raises on a turn brick. But I think his 3x size may be FOS, so I'd decide here and now if we're going with it, and if so, I'd stuff it in his face.

Calling is also fine, if we think V has a lot of worse value combos and bluffs in his range. We're just letting him set his price to out-draw us, or giving him a chance to save some money and get away from his hand on scary rivers.

RIVER - as played, I don't think I could fold very often, even though I'd expect to see something like 65 that sucked out. If our read is that he just always has it, okay, I guess fold, but then I'd want to go lay down in traffic for not getting it in on the turn.