Nut draw turn decision.
1/3 8 handed.
Effective stack 500.
The villain is in the button. He is an older Asian man. Seems loose and passive pre. He hasn’t been at the table long.
I open KsTs from the LJ to 15 and only the button calls.
30 in pot
Js4s4c…I Bet 15 and the button calls. I have no info regarding his floating range.
Js4s4cAd….How would you proceed?
3 Replies
I would bet the turn. It is the perfect barrel card. Sucks if you get raised.
I think I would bet small, maybe 20
If villain has a 4 or some other monster, he will likely want more value and raise now. Then, you can safely get out of his way with only a 20% chance to complete the flush.
Obviously if he calls, you realize your equity.
Potting the turn is reasonable too, some players make mistakes when you increase the pressure. If you plan to bluff the river when you miss against this villain, this might be the way to go.
If you check, I don’t think you can trust anything villain does and will be driving blind.
It’s partly setting your own price for the draw and also, putting the thought in villain’s head that you are very strong and trying to squeak out a little more value.
I just limp in (ETA: actually this early I probably lean to a fold depending on how active table is) but then again I have a 0% raising range from the LJ (which, BTW, at an 8 handed table is UTG+2 i.e. EP).
I'm cool with our flop cbet (could also bet a smidge smaller to keep his calling range super wide to barrel him off that on the turn, but whatever). We have decent equity against most hands and can get better hands (such as Ax and some Kx) to fold.
I think I would mostly be double barreling here because it is going to be so difficult for him to continue with underpairs or even most Jx. Meanwhile we should mostly have a bunch of outs if called. If he calls I'd probably give up UI on the river and hope my K high wins against a worse draw (which a passive player is never going to turn into a bluff).
GcluelessNLnoobG
