Buoyed by airball float

Do you think it's possible he donked with a draw and got there?

I would think he bets with flushes and it's the best card for our perceived range so I guess fire away. Not a fan of calling the flop but it's not the worst thing either.

I would have folded flop but I think the turn is fine.

What do you think his range is when he donks flop for around 1/2 pot, multi-way?

In broad-strokes, I'd think his range falls into these buckets:

1 - weak top pair, strong second pair

2 - good draws

3 - nonsense.

What does the turn card do for that range, and what is he likely to do with the hands that fall into each of those buckets, if we bet $50 into $85?

1 - weak top pair may call once and fold if we barrel river. Strong second pair may call or fold.

2 - his most likely draws just got there, so they're probably not folding.

3 - his pure nonsense probably folds. Any nonsense that somehow improves to 2P or better may not fold.

I'm just not sure what we're doing here. It seems like we're bluffing, but this isn't the hand or spot I'd want to bluff. If we wanted to bluff, we could have raised flop.

It seems like we're just hoping to rep a made hand and make his worse hands fold. I guess it isn't terrible, especially if he just folds here and now, on the turn. But what if he doesn't? Are we barreling the river?

That's the problem I have with this turn bet. If he doesn't fold now, and the river is just a brick, we'll either have to bluff again, or give up and check back K-high.

Even if we make top pair on a K, or spike a 9 to make a straight, what then? Are we going to bet our hand for value, or check it back?

I'd rather just check back the turn. If we improve to top pair or a straight and he checks again, we can bet for thin value, targeting his Jx. If we brick and he checks, we can over-bet to make him lay down ace-high. If we brick and he donks, it's a trivial fold.

I'll just post result since no one seems interested..just thought it was a delicate spot:

I think the river is way more interesting than the turn here because this is a spot where the bet size seems much more sensitive/debatable.

I don’t think you should have that thought as we all have busy lives and people will respond when they get a chance.

Very often a donk the flop means top pair, weak kicker. You will probably not get top pair to fold.

Your hands are always interesting as I crave to understand people that don’t think like me.

I would definitely fold pre-flop. Anyone that plays any ace is already a 60% favorite over you. This is opening unnecessarily wide = FPS

I don’t play many hands, so I don’t fold easily once I enter the arena, so I like that about you. Your best chance here is to overbet the turn to convince villain you hit the clubs or straight and drop his top pair. He’s not going anywhere for 50.

As played, I like it.
Maybe you could have gone bigger, but you got the call & that’s what matters.

Still, you had 85 invested with nothing, hit a very unlikely card on the river & won 75 more. Good result, but I think this line fails too often.

Flop and turn are questionable, because everyone is likely to hit the wet board and it usually isn't a good idea to float and bluff on it with close to air. River is good as played.

It is nice you hit runner-runner. However, you were 9% on the flop and 7% on the turn. When someone leads on this flop, it is unlikely he is bluffing, and it is a bad idea to bluff with air. Maybe with what he had you could have gotten him to fold betting big on the river. However, you aren't going to make your money at 2/5 or whatever playing this way.

Again, my tables never play this insanely deep (we're 666bbs deep agains MP!?!?), but...

I fold preflop but I'm tight in EP.

Flop call with nothing but backdoors and MP still behind us seems pretty optimistic.

And so now on the turn we prepare the double barrel bluff... against a guy described as a massive donator / talks himself into calling a lot? Against me, this would be an awesome plan. But against this guy?

ETA: Dood called a four-liner-to-a-straight-3-to-a-flush on river with one pear. Attempting to bluff this guy is insane, imo. The debatable part is whether we actually sized large enough on the river against this dood.

GgohomeBanana,you'redrunkG

Didn't get a chance to see this thread before the result but it is interesting. Could have more discussion of all postflop streets.

Preflop and river are the only interesting streets.

Bet more on river with reads.

Flop and turn are bad fundamentals. Don't float or bluff a dripping wet board with air. There are too many draws semibluffing it, etc., and it likely hits everyone too hard.