2/5 2 hands vs fish

Bruh. One hand per post, please.

I'm not sure about your read. He may not be all that fishy, based on the prior hand history.

Hand 1 - how are you ranging V?

Assume he's defending his BB wide, even after CO calls. He's "getting a price". Then he calls your c-bet, giving a little speech that he's keeping you honest. To me, that sounds like BS, and he actually has a hand. Maybe 2P, or just top pair. Maybe a draw of some sort. He could have the same hand, JT, or 76 that rivered trips. He's probably not checking again on the river with a boat, unless he's really trappy.

I'd put him on 9X, 98, 76 that rivered trips, and jam all in. He's not folding trips, or top 2P. Alternatively, check back if you think he's trappy or you're not 100% positive on the read.

Hand 2 - Jesus. Just open bigger pre. You're UTG with a premium, and your bet has to get through eleventeen opponents and their moms. Make it $40.

And for crying out loud, c-bet bigger on the flop. Someone's going to have a flush draw here, and they're not going to fold if you bet $50 or $75. How big would someone need to bet for you to fold AXhh here? $100? $150?

If you make it $75 and someone has 7x, they're going to raise. They're not going to slow-play trips on this board as often as you may think.

I'd over-bet turn. Like 2x pot.

Hand1 I think he's capped, maybe 1 pair max. Lots of pair+st8d type hand like 9t/8t type hand. Not sure how many 7x he has. Jamming is like 550+?
Hand2 You overbetting into 2 players on a paired board???? They could have 22/7x/TT??? We only getting called by better????

You need to work on your ranging of opponents, and carrying that logical thread forward, asking how they play the hands they're most likely to have.

Yes, jamming is $560. There's $300 in the pot. We know this because you posted it in your OP. Do you think V knows how much is in the pot or left behind? Is he sitting there thinking that your bet is 1.866 pot? Or is he just sitting there praying you don't jam, so he doesn't have to hero call with his 1P?

Is there a world in which he folds 98, 9x, 8x, or 7x to an over-bet, if he snap calls turn, and the river is just a brick?

Yes, I'm over-betting turn into two players in hand 2.

OMG! A paired board!!!!! My QQ can't be any good here!

They can't both have 22 or TT. The odds of them both having 7x is pretty low. The odds of them both flatting pre with TT in the blinds is pretty low. The odds of one of them having trips and the other having a boat, and both of them check-calling your tiny flop c-bet on a two-tone board, and checking to us again on the turn is very low.

They could also have flush draws, Tx, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, AX, KX, etc, etc, etc.

Just bet your hand. You missed value betting small on the flop. There are a ton of inelastic hands we can target.

Hand1: just bet small. Aside from this blatantly obvious reverse tell (acting strong = weak), there's just not much he can have. Target his overall range which honestly looks like bluffcatchers.

Hand2: didnt really read into it but I see you debating the merits of overbetting on paired boards to target hands that dont connect. Not sure how you defend that thought process. If their range is as generous as TT on a 77x board are they still calling jams? No, they're just going to fold to a flop allin, the same way almost everyone would fold any board to a flop spaz jam, unless of course they have it. And the thing is if you think someone is going to call off with literally any pair then you can get it in on the turn most likely anyway, so just maximize value and play a 2 street game. But ranging someone doesnt mean wishful thinking. "I need him to have TT here because he'll always pay off if he does".

Hand 1: I read this as weak and not wanting to face a big bet. I'll make it $150 which might be more than he's prepared to call but w/e.

Hand 2: I bet $125.

1. Grabbing for chips is a ‘defensive behavior’ indicating he doesn’t want you to bet. I would disappoint him. I don’t know if there’s a size to get a call; I think he’s folding to any bet.

2. Bet 200-250. It’s time to turn up the heat with two players involved. Probably not savvy enough to realize how strong this bet is in a protected pot. Hoping to get called by one of them.

Your read was that V was a non-believer / station.

Hand 1, he called pre, called your flop c-bet, and called a pot-sized turn bet. Seems like he has a hand he likes.

Oh, but then he reached for his chips? That's a defensive tell, that means he's weak? How do we know he's not reaching for chips to shuffle them, or cut out a raise?

What did he have on the turn, when he called a pot-sized bet? 9x? 8x? 7x? TT? 66? He had to have SOMETHING.

We can target the bottom of his range by betting small, and know he's never raising with top of range, or we can just target his stationy tendencies and size up. He's a non-believing station who called three bets. Let's try to get max value, when it's obvious he doesn't like to fold, and doesn't believe us when we bet.

Hand 2, we opened UTG, and got three callers, including the same V. We started out $900 eff. The pot is $270, and we still have $830 behind. At what point are we actually going to try to build a pot?

Both V's are pretty capped. They're unlikely to have boats or trips here. They're very likely to have worse PP's and a $hlt-ton of flush draws. We can get value from all those hands. Yes, there's a possibility we run into TT here, but it's pretty low, I think, given the pre-flop action.

There are 3 combos of TT possible. There are 24 of 99/88/66/55, plus 55 more flush draw combos. Who knows how many combos of Tx they may have. They're not overly likely to put more money into the pot for us. So let's start piling it in.

Hand1

In game, I decided to go for 3streets only because V is in hand.

H bets 100, only V calls

Pot 470
Riv 2♣
V checks
Hero???

Grunch.

Hand 1: Speech + snap calling a potted turn + reaching on river -> this is nearly always 98 realizing they just got counterfeited. Occasionally it's a boat, like 99/88, though most LL Vs won't twitch a muscle upon rivering the near nuts, nevermind lol grabbing for chips. They have it? Oh well.

Bet something they can crying call. Maybe same bet river, maybe 125-150. You calling a shove?

Hand 2: 772hh. I think the 3x over the straddle is fine. Most are still going to call a 4x open too. Unblocking hearts, I think H can go a bit bigger than ~b30. Probably making it 100. If they have 22, at 90 straddles it's a cooler. 2 87s, 2 76s, are what I'd be concerned about. Maaaaybe A7s. TT really should've 3! pf. I'd just keep betting. Something like b60 AP.

Edit: seeing the double-paired board, you could x-back. Especially after bombing river on H1. V might be trapping this time. I think V whiffed on hearts tbh.

Really hate it when we bet a dangerous river and get it stuffed into our faces. Villains where I am will do this to heroes who shouldn't have any 7x/2x, but have a gazillion Ax that would otherwise be chopping. So I'd x-back, despite b/f being The Way at low stakes NLHE.

Stop.

If he's folding 9x to a just over pot-sized bet, maybe a smaller bet gets called. It seems reasonable to beat ourselves up for getting greedy.

But we don't know how sticky or elastic he is until after the fact. His range isn't only 9x, it's also 98, and 76, and JT. We can size down to get called by his entire range, but if that's what we're doing, why not size all the way down to get called by 55, or ace-high?

We could have AK here. If we had AK, and V flipped over 9x, would we feel comfortable betting $350 to get him to fold? Probably not. If we wanted to make 9x fold here, we might think we need to size up to 2x pot. Your line is fine. We just need to calibrate. Sizing all the way down to $150 just so he snap calls is leaving money on the table.

When V's range has a mix of some weak hands and some strong hands, it's generally going to be higher EV to target the strong hands rather than the weak hands. Maybe $350 is just a little too much. Now we know. Next time, we can make it $300, or $275.

What do you think he has here? What do you think he had when he flat called the $100 on the turn? 1P? A flush draw?

If he has 2x, he's boated up, and we lose. If he just has a busted flush draw, he's not calling anything. What can we target for value now? PP's between 33 and 99, and Tx?

All the hands we can get value from now would have called a much bigger bet on the turn. Now, we're just trying to get the value we missed by not sizing up on the turn.

Bet $150-$200. Now that we know he over-folds top pair when we barrel, it's fine to size down.

But we should have bet MUCH bigger on the turn.

I think this is a bit of an oversimplification. He didnt "fold top pair", he folded a pair of 9's. Thats how he thinks. I promise you he aint folding top pair if it's an ace, ever.

I mean... there's no higher pair.

Sort of like saying water is wet.