Nut Flush Facing Large Raise on Paired Board
Nut Flush Facing Large Raise on Paired Board

Nut Flush Facing Large Raise on Paired Board

Stakes: $2/$3 NLH with $6 Optional Straddle
Hero's Effective Stacks: $500 (CL)
HJ's Effective Stacks: $300
BTN's Effective Stacks: $200
Hero (UTG): A 7

Pre-flop: HJ opens to $20. BTN calls. Hero calls.

Flop: J 8 2
Hero leads for $15. HJ raises to $30. BTN calls. Hero calls.

Turn: 4
Hero checks. HJ bets $30. BTN folds. Hero calls.

River: 2
Hero leads for $65. HJ raises to $200. Hero?

Question:
Does HJ's flop raise scream a made hand looking for protection?

25 March 2026 at 08:12 AM
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8 Replies



Why H donking flop? I have no idea what this minraise from HJ is trying to achieve. Maybe 88/22 trying to get it in but why this tiny size on flop and turn. This small-small-big betting line screams bluff from some older players I have seen from 1/3.

I was trying to use my chip advantage to force V to fold on the flop.


If HJ is $300 effective then you are too. As such the river raise is virtually all in (unless stacks are underestimated).
The bet sizes postflop are all strangely small. On the river the pot is $210? Then with just about a pot size bet left, I don't think we're getting away from the ace-high flush...


Action is weird. You are usually beat on the river, particularly against this player, but it could be a call with pot odds. Maybe should lead larger on river.

Preflop limp/call of 20 with A7s is bad. Probably a fold initially preflop. Once you get raised, you probably have to fold, or maybe 3!.

I don't see the point of the flop lead for 1/3 pot. Check and x/c or maybe x/r. If you are going to lead/donk, make it larger.


PRE - seems okay to check our option in the straddle.

FLOP - WTF? Why are you donking here, with this hand, in this configuration? I'd just check in flow, expecting this flop texture to be bet close to 100% of the time.

TURN - As played, he's betting 20% pot? I mean...yeah, can't fold. I might think about raising, but probably just calling.

RIVER - Uhm...why are you donking $65 into $210 when he only started with $300 and only has $220 left?

So...he left $20 behind?

I don't THINK he's bluffing, but I also don't necessarily think he's boated up here. If he had a set on the flop or turn, I'd think he'd size up a lot. He just min-clicked flop and same-bet the turn. That looks weak AF.

I don't think I could fold the nut flush when we get here this way. If he's got a boat, tap the table and say nice hand.


Actually, if he has a worse flush, this line is stupidly awesome. I'd think he'd probably fold river if we donk-jammed.


Pre: good
Flop: I don't get the donk. This is a check/call or check/raise depending on action, and hardly a problem if it gets checked through.
Turn: As played, I like turn call.
River: As played, I like the lead and sizing. We are targeting over pairs, AJ, KJ to make the crying call when the flush draw hits.

Now we get raised it is more problematic - any reads? In a vaccum I agree with others on villain sizing; I think HJ is likely betting bigger on flop and/or turn with a set given board is wet, so I think I make the crying call. That said people do weird things at low stakes and I am not expecting to be good much more than a third of the time though.


Flop: check to the raiser - why muddy the story? Did you flop the flush? What about villain, tight/loose - passive/aggressive? The post screams β€˜more info’

Turn: again unclear - is villain contemplating with 3 to a flush draw? or does it come in on the river? If villain is betting flop or turn staring at a possible flush, it makes a difference in evaluating strength.
This time you check and he bets small. The small bet is looking to induce:
Because he wants to fold to a raise.
Because he wants to get the money in.
Or he’s got trips and is afraid of the flush - if he sees it’s possible at this point.

River: it’s certainly the way villain plays it if the pair filled him up. If you rivered the flush, villain is more likely to bluff and he could be overplaying 2pair. If you flopped the flush, I think it’s a boat.


Looking at this again...

FLOP / TURN - Maybe he just clicks it back on the flop with 2P, sets, and over-pairs. But when he gets two callers, I'd expect him to bomb it on the turn, not bet 20% pot / exactly what he raised to on the flop.

So, no, I don't think he had 2P or a set on the flop, and I don't think he's boated up on the river.

Why is he raising river if he's not boated up, and the flush comes in?

Probably because our flop donk looks like TP, 2P, or a flush draw to him, and he probably doesn't believe we'd donk small on the river if we had the nut flush. This 30% pot sizing OP took probably looks like hero has TP, T2P, a low flush, a bluff, or some SDV that's block-betting, planning to fold to a raise.

If he has an over-pair, especially with a spade, he might take this line, because the board-pairing deuce counterfeits J8. I could also see him taking this line with a lower flush.

I dunno. The action is pretty weird, including him leaving himself $20 behind. I wouldn't fold the nut flush, the way this was played.

In fact, V's hand was 88.

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