Go broke with AA’s?

Easy fold. Do you see why? We have Ace of clubs, so we know he's not semi-bluffing the nut flush draw. So what else would he do this with? Sets.

Not sure what I would do, I would have to look him in the eyes. I agree with javi, but there’s that lingering feeling that some players would do this with AJ or KJ.

I play quickly most of the time, but before I fold aces, I’m going to tank and you’ll have to be patient. Going to ask questions, stare and look hard for comfort clues.

Once, dude showed me his hand and I was beat. A guy that likes me, once told me to fold because he hit the straight - and he showed after I folded. You do realize how this helped my bottom line?

Other times villain starts to become uncomfortable (you have to recognize actors) and you can sense he’s worried. Sometimes you can flip over your aces and see his reaction - I’ve seen that tinge of regret and called correctly.

There’s no ‘foolproof’ answer, but don’t be hasty to fold aces.

I limp in as per my style. We ended up getting this HU in position to a playable SPR, so nice result (if expected), imo.

The SPR is about 9.5 and we offered pretty good IO of 20:1 preflop. So I mostly never want to work towards playing for stacks in this spot. So my flop heuristic is an extremely simple one. If I feel comfortable folding to a check/raise, then I'm fine with betting (to make the disciplined fold). If I don't feel comfortable folding to a check/raise, then I check behind and make sure I get to showdown for relatively cheap without getting stacks involved. It looks like we decided to bet, so I now make the fold.

We really have to make our commitment decision at this SPR facing the flop check/raise, imo, because it is just so likely that check/raise is going to be followed up with a bet for stacks on the turn.

GcluelessNLnoobG

That's a tough one. I know it's only 20 minutes, but have you been folding to pressure? Have you played any hands? Have you seen any of his hands? After he raises pre, does he auto bet/raise the flop to get others to fold?

I really want to call, but if you really don't have much of a read, say, "AK no good, " fold face down, and hope he shows. Pay very close attention going forward.

Not saying call, but if you are going to fold, you probably should fold the flop. He doesn't have to be playing aggro. He could be semibluffing with Acxc, 8c7c, 9c8c, 9c7c, etc. It is more a fold at lower stakes.

FWIW, us having the Ac only reduces the semi-bluffing combos he can have; it doesn't completely eliminate them on this super drawy board. Doubt whether having this blocker or not should factor in all that much with the overall decision (i.e. it's not like us having Ac = slam dunk fold versus us not having Ac = slam dunk continue).

Gnothatin',justsayin'G

My default here would be to fold on the turn unless I had a really good reason not to. We probably can’t determine much about his style from 20 minutes, regardless of how many hands he had played.

OTT he can’t have Axcc, which would probably be his most likely semi bluffing hand.

Also, if he sometimes gets to the turn with 78s or 34s, we now lose to half of those combos.

I’d fold OTT and feel good about it.

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Flop is the inflection point where you either
-Fold
-Call and plan on calling only certain turn cards
Or
-Call and plan on calling any turn card
Or
-Shove

"Call and hope he doesn't shove turn" isn't a plan...I think you need to have a feeling of what this player's range is, even 20 minutes in.

Like, even a tighter player might have AJ/KJ, QQ. Now if you're saying he seems loose, go with the read and call it off.

Exactly, you can't call the flop and fold the turn with a psb left. That is how to lose money with aces. If he has a draw, he is going to shove the turn. It is unlikely he checks it down.

I agree that have Ac reduces his semibluffs significantly.

A lot of this. H opened UTG, and cbets 83% on J56cc, and faces a 3X x-r? When IO on the SB call was like 18:1? This *should* be 66/55 like always. 65s if H is lucky. Folding flop, and I like java's idea to chat V up and see if they'll show.

Cbet smaller if H wanted to b-c. Certainly there are Vs this is just a calldown against. We don't know if this V is one of those.

I'm not folding - he could have hands like AJ/KJ, 78cc,79cc,etc. Could he have sets/56s? Yes he could, but think you're ahead enough of the time.

you bet almost pot on the flop and he CR'd you big anyway. readless, its time to fold.

this is different than if you bet like $15 on the flop. which is what i would do, by the way.

also probably a good idea for you to check flop at least some of the time.

I am convinced based on cbet size and having Ac that it is a fold. However, you need to fold on the flop. Calling the flop and folding the turn is burning money.

I think I should have bet/folded the flop. I opened from EP and bet big and he still CR’d. I don’t see people bluffing in this spot. I don’t see people CR with just a J.

What if the flop was Kc6c3s? I feel like folding the flop CR here would be tougher because he could have AK. Two pair seems less likely. What if I didn’t have the Ac?

I don't like the cbet sizing, which represent about what you have. Think it is a fold to the raise. If you are going to go with the hand, 3!-shoving the flop may be better than calling. Definitely closer if you didn't have Ac.

Something else to consider; FPS. Fancy play syndrome. So at these stakes there are more than 0% of players with enough disposable income to make wild hail mary plays and not fear the consequences. Their overall thought process is "i can win any hand any time I want." They have a checklist of ways to win.

• 1. Suckout
  
• 2. Draw out
  
• 3. Cooler
  
• 4. Bluff
  

And if they screw up and lose in epic fashion they feel they have now cultivated an image to get paid off the next time they really have it. Point is you can comfortably fold to 3 of these and not be at any real disadvantage, because they will simply NEVER stop trying. They will get you for a dozen small to medium pots and you will get them for everything once. It's astonishing watching someone run up a 1000BB stack and then literally just lose it all in 3 hands. So if someone makes you fold AA under suspicious circumstances, it's ok. JLIG - just let it go. Because the next time you'll flop a set and it's GGNORE.

It’s astonishing how often I see a player at 1/3 build a huge stack for the game (2-3k) and lose it all back in a hour or two. An empathy problem, because I feel sick, sad, sorry for villain every time.

IDK if I should call them maniacs (though some are), but they play poor hands & sometimes they connect. But when they keep playing that way, they give it all back.

But as javi says, think about this when circumstances force you to lay down a big hand. It should never pain you too much, because these people are losers and you have to pick your spots. The rollercoaster people give us their money and I feel worse for them than they do.

Villain is never shook up and acts like it happens all the time, and it likely does. Then, there’s a few of us that get that kind of lead, build that stack and you can’t pry it away from us.

I learned long ago not to offer help, as one they don’t listen, don’t care, don’t change. I have developed a very good ‘shrug’ for most any ‘poker talk’ that comes up.

Bottom line: don’t act like folding aces is a big deal, even if you’re wrong. Don’t waste time with past decisions, keep moving forward. Play strong hands in position with the initiative. It’s almost ‘fool proof’

FreeCard, you do understand that these kinds of maniacs are playing with their disposable income/entertainment budget, right?

They don’t want or need your pity, empathy, or (LMAO) “help”.

What they want is for you to get in there and gambool with them and fire up their dopamine receptors.

Fair
I certainly know they don’t want my help.

It’s not always like you say.
The young kid that lost big upstairs in the casino, comes down and starts opening $100 blind every hand trying to win it back. It’s not disposable income.

The older I get, the younger they look. I swear some of them must have ‘fake IDs’.

The whales you’re talking about, I have no sympathy for them, maybe wasn’t clear. I pound them without mercy.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine. If the game is splashy I might open for a bigger size.

FLOP - I'd mostly c-bet IP. In a SRP, my default sizing is 1/2 pot. I'll size up or down as a read-based or situational exploit.

I don't hate the almost pot sized bet. But when V x/r's, we need to proceed cautiously.

It's always possible V is raising a worse hand for value, or raising with some sort of draw. But when someone buys into a low stakes game for less than the max, I tend to think their range is skewed towards value, not bluffs, whenever they take an aggressive action.

It doesn't seem terrible to bet-call flop when his raise is only 3X. But we'd like it better if we'd used a smaller c-bet size.

TURN - he's letting us off the hook. We should probably just fold.

That said, I wouldn't hate on anyone for calling. And I wouldn't be shocked if V was jamming a worse value hand.

There are some conflicting signals here. He bought in for less than the max. He flat called your raise from the SB. He x/r'd over a pot-sized bet, but used a smallish 3x size. It all points to him being fishy, and fish will sometimes over-play worse value hands in spots like this.

I dunno. Fold. Call. Seems like a close decision.

Reading the rest of the thread...

I don't think we necessarily need to commit to our hand on the flop. We can spike an A on the turn. He may slow down and check on a club, or over-card, or a board-pair. He may check on a total brick. He may bet small.

I think we made a mistake c-betting almost full pot, but we got here how we got here. We're getting 3.25 to 1 implied odds to call and see a turn. I'd think folding all our over-pairs on the flop would be a mistake.

You kinda made your decision on the flop

You call a flop raise - and the turn changes nothing.

If I'm gonna call the flop raise - i'm not folding a turn brick

If I think i'm beat - i'm just folding the flop. Were you hoping to hit an ace or have the board pair? Maybe have a club roll off and hope he slows down? You bet the flop very large - almost 80% pot and he still raises you. I don't bet this large on flops, but maybe I should if I smash them vs some villains.

Me personally - I just call/call here a lot (but I usually bet flop small and probably induce) The amount of times these donuts over play a jack or a random flush draw >> the times they have 2 pair or a set.

I had a hand just like this last week, same exact set up - same exact flop - but I had KK and just hit the call/call and he shook his head and said T high or something.

I fold vs a few players but not vs randoms I never met who you just know are blasting. I'm not at your table, and you haven't seen him show down a hand. He could be on a heater. Not gonna get a lot of good advice on this one bud.

Bet 20 or 15 on the flop. If you always cbet 25 into 30, your bluffs are too expensive.

Gross spot on flop. I fold and barf. For your typical 1/2 player, a 1.5 pot bet is always two pair or better. Baluga whale theorem applies technically only to a turn raise but the principle applies: Facing big bets, unless you know V has a bluffing range, just fold your over pair. Your typical 1/2 doesn’t check-raise bluff the flop. You have no read. On flop f>ai>c.

Re-reading this again...I dunno. I've been in this spot, and V was over-playing worse value. He may just have AJ/KJ here, and he's telling himself that he's never getting away from his hand, so he may as well jam.

I don't love folding. Don't love calling. Might just count the combos we beat and those we lose to, and make a pot-odds decision.

He's got:

JJ - 3 combos
55 - 3
66 - 3
65 - 9
J6s - 2
J5s - 3
43s - 4

Better value = 27

AJ - 6
KJ - 12
QJ - 12
87cc - 1

Worse value / bluffs = 31

I mean...we're getting almost 3:1 to call. We only need to win around 34% of the time to make calling profitable. We have to think he's never doing this with worse value or a bluff to make it a snap fold.

If he does this with all the AJ/KJ/QJ, and with more JX combos, and / or more draws, it starts becoming more of a snap call.