Turned set on 4 flush board oop as aggressor

I don’t like your line. If you bet the flop, you need to bet the turn, because now your check looks like you gave up & villain can pounce. A small turn bet would have been better.

I really don’t like ‘downbets’ on the flop vs one opponent. The small bet is a subtle sign of less confidence. Bet another 55 instead

It’s very possible that you checked, so he bet regardless of his hand. This profile sounds like a guy that would do that. Thinking he wouldn’t bet without a flush is naive.

Not advice:
I have hands like this and I consider what would I feel like on the ride home if I folded 3 queens and villain showed 2pair. Unless my read was way different than yours, I’m going all-in. Let the others tell you to fold.

My thinking is there are a lot of iffy hands villain could talk himself into folding, or we can catch a queen - floor, high hand

I would like to know his stack size: if he’s sitting with 3k, he might be too prone to call & I need fold equity. If he’s got 400, he’ll have to think about it.

I don’t like to gamble, but the lack of information sometimes forces it. I’ve seen spots like this where 5 people got to the river and nobody had a club.

If I had watched villain make that turn bet, it might change my opinion. I would certainly notice his level of confidence. This is no snap decision, I’m probably talking to villain, trying to make him uncomfortable - looking for clues

If dude calls with a club, I’m not even thinking about it on the ride home. I’ve made mistakes before. Take your own chances and pay your own dues.

PRE - raise bigger, at least $75.

FLOP - just check. We can't get called by many worse hands, and we're not folding many better hands.

TURN - I don't mind the check here. It would suck to bet and get jammed on.

Assuming he has a flush, but he doesn't have the royal, we're about 22% to win, and we're getting around 5.7 to 1 implied odds to fill up, which seems like enough, assuming we can actually get stacks in on the river if we fill up, which isn't guaranteed.

The board is interesting. When V double flats on the BTN, he seems unlikely to have AxKc or KcKx. He can't have KQcc or KTcc. So his nut flushes would just be KcQx, KJ, K9, or K-whatever. He'd have to be calling our 3B pretty light to have very many nut flushes here.

I wonder if he'd fold any lower flushes if we jammed. We could have KcKx or AxKc here.

It's just hard to find the flushes that fold. He can't have JTcc. J9cc is an OESFD, but I'd think he'd fold that pre. Does he fold JcJx or 9c9x? I'd think he'd 3B those pre. 98cc? Worse flushes? Maybe, but how many worse flushes double flat pre? Seems like it wouldn't be very many.

Not really all that sure he has a flush here. This is the sizing the nut flush may take, but he just can't credibly rep very many combos. Really just KJcc at a high frequency, and all the other KXcc combos at some lower frequency.

I somewhat think his range is weighted towards AX combos, which should mostly be suited, preventing him from having a flush. He shouldn't have 33 here. Maybe he has TT sometimes. Or AT. Maybe some other AX combos, possibly including some offsuit AJ combos with one club, but AxJc is only 3 combos. Hard to think he gets here with A9o or worse.

Yeah, I think we actually may have the best hand here. I don't want to fold. Not sure if we should raise or smooth call.

Seems unlikely more money is going in on the river if we are ahead. There is a possibility that the river will be another club and we could be chopping, but he'd have to be holding lower clubs than the board, which seems unlikely. The river could also be another A, making him a higher full house if he has AQ, AT or A3.

I wouldn't hate on anyone for turning our hand into a bluff by jamming. I just don't love trying to get low stakes players to fold made hands.

I dunno. I definitely don't think we should fold. I might just call and see what he does. Guys who spend their time at the table looking at their phone tend to play pretty straightforward post, IME.

Bigger pre is right.

Range betting quarter pot or 20% on flop is good

Turn you should probably range check, they should have a big advantage in flushes (all their pocket pairs with club)

Click back check raising as a bluff is viable. So is check call.

Preflop raise to 75.

Check flop. If V bets, you’re gonna need a read to call. How does V play postflop? Does V ever bluff?

AP, I call the turn. As Doc writes, hero has just the implied odds to draw to a boat. I think V calls a river shove if hero boats up.

That's the question, really. Does he call?

In my observation, people who are constantly looking at their phone tend to play fairly tight and straightforward. They over-fold to aggression. They'll occasionally bluff, but typically only in spots that make sense and when opponents show weakness.

It would suck to flat call here, fill up on the river, and not get stacks in. And the problem I foresee is what happens when he doesn't have the nut flush.

If he has KcJc, AQ, AT, or A3, and we fill up on another ace, we're getting stacked. If he just has some thin value hand that isn't a flush, he's probably not calling if we donk jam. If he somehow has some lower flush, maybe he calls with JXcc, but he may not, and it's hard to find the high flush combos that double flat pre.

Like, the original raise came from the CO, who could be opening pretty wide. V was next to act on the BTN. He could 3B with a pretty wide range there. But he flat called. Then hero 3B from the SB, and V called again. What the hell range is that, if we assume V is playing tight?

I'm just guessing, but I'd think V has some PP's below 99 with one club, some Broadway combos, and maybe some lower SC's. He's probably not double flatting pre with J9s or worse S1G's. So his range getting to the river is low flushes (like 8 or 9 high at best) and thin value hands that we're already beating.

Will any of those hands call when the board pairs? The strongest hands in his range still lose to higher flushes. The best case scenario would seem to be if he has K9cc and just can't lay it down. And that seems unlikely given the pre-flop action and read.

We're in a $hlt spot when we c-bet flop and check turn. We can x-jam turn, but I doubt he calls with worse. We can donk-jam river, whether we fill up or not, but it's the same story. We can check river, and we might win if he checks back. But we'll be in the blender if he barrels.

This is the sort of spot where this type of V will find enough bluffs, I think. We played this somewhat face up. A competent V can turn his entire range into a bluff here, or he can just take his SDV and we don't get max value for our hand.

pf is too small. id go 75. OOP the best outcome is probably to just win the pot pre.

as played i check flop.

as played call turn and river depends on read/action.

I would open shove turn for about 1.25 x pot. Want to get a bad flush to fold and you are 23% with 10 outs if behind. That way, you don't get bluffed off it if ahead or wind up chopping if ahead and another club hits.