1/2 NL - River Sizing w/Nuts vs. Maniac

I would go big but all in seems greedy. Make it 265.

Would go for it all here as I don’t think she will fold a queen. It looks somewhat bluffy to jam & she’ll think you’re trying to get her off a chop with a queen. You probably won’t get anything off 2pair, no matter what you do. Rip it.

Raise more pre? I’m proceeding cautiously. Hero is oop multiway with two UTGs

Bet the flop 15. Why check your flush draw / two overs? Did you know you also had the backdoor nut straight draw?! You were the preflop raiser. Play like you have AA.

AP, if I knew V2 was a bad player, I’d call the turn too.

Bingo! Given the read, I would jam.

I'm looking to bet the pot here and give her 2-1 on a call. I want her to call all her Qx and stuff like JT.

She will be behind us all night and I think we can get the rest of her money later. Even 4 Hennys deep, I think she can find a fold to our jam given that the preflop action suggests we can have KQ.

Grunch:

PRE - raise bigger.

FLOP - check seems ok, but with two overs and a draw to the 2nd nuts, I'd prefer a smallish c-bet, like $20-$25.

TURN - whatever. No one bet flop so I don't mind checking here with just a draw. Also wouldn't mind making a delayed c-bet for 1/2-2/3 pot, like $25-$35.

RIVER - x/r'ing here after we checked three times looks kinda FOS, so I think we can go bigger with the raise size. Definitely don't like letting her see for less than 4x, so I'd be thinking about how to get at least $260 into the pot.

If we think she's sticky and has value, I would like to go bigger, like $300, maybe. If we think she actually has a straight, I might make it $325. If we think she's bluffing, but capable of spaz-3B'ing as a bluff if we click it back, maybe we should just click it back. Likewise, if she's capable of over-playing QX, I might click it back.

I dunno. I think she's often FOS here, and a small raise to induce a 3B might work better than a huge raise that will only get flat called by her worse value. If she has a Q and jams, that would be amazing.

So I'd be torn between a min-click and raising to $325. Think I'd lean towards the bigger bet just because I think she'll call with a lot of her worse hands more often than she'll 3B with worse.

I think we left value on the table not betting flop or turn, but as played to the river, I like going for the check raise with the nuts.

Clarifying what I was trying to say above...

I could see her range being any two cards getting to the turn, and stabbing with her entire range when action checks to her twice.

Her turn bet is so small that I think there would be a frequency of her barreling river, even after she gets two callers, and even with air, if action checks to her again. And when the pot is small, a 2/3 pot bet isn't that much money in absolute terms.

So I think her range here is basically:

1. BS that isn't calling a raise of any size but might occasionally spaz 3B over a min-click.

2. Some thin value, maybe as strong as 2P, that might be somewhat elastic in relation to our raise size, such that she's probably never folding to a min-click, but she could fold at a frequency in direct proportion to our raise size (the bigger we go, the more she folds).

3. A straight, possibly the dumb end with a 7, possibly just QX, possibly KQ for a chop. Not sure if she always calls a big raise with 7x or just a Q, or how often she 3B's over a min-click with 7x or a Q. A check raise here seems pretty polar, but if she's capable of spazzing in response to a min-click, I want to induce her to spaz.

When she bets 2/3 pot, if we raise, it either looks FOS or looks like we were trapping. It just depends on how she views it. I wouldn't want to put too much emphasis on how much she's had to drink. I would rather rely on how we've actually seen her play, specifically how she responds to late street aggression.

I want to give her an opportunity to make the biggest mistake possible. I'm not sure if it makes more sense to raise bigger or smaller.

A river min-click is usually nutted, but it can also be an insanely efficient bluff size on four-straight boards. I recently had an opponent min-click bluff me off the best hand on exactly this sort of run-out, when I tried to bluff the river, not realizing I was bluffing with the best hand.

Also, this seems like a spot where we could be turning showdown value into a bluff by checking, expecting to be good if action checks through, but knowing we're not good if someone bets. No idea if she's thinking on that level, but if she is, she might be more likely to think our raise is FOS and flick in the call with Qx, even if we go massive.